Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
740 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING INTO TEXAS AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS AND BECOMES
AN OPEN WAVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. FORECAST AREA STAYS IN BROAD
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL
BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY.

500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
LARGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET WILL ALSO BE ADVANCING INTO THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON AND WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

EXPECTING A MAJORITY OF ANY ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH
BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND 03Z/11PM. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE ATMOSPHERE
HEATS UP ON WEDNESDAY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LEAN TOWARD WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ROUGHLY NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE SHEARING AND WEAKENING...HOWEVER WHAT'S LEFT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE SHOULD SPAWN SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS IT LIMPS EAST. SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH BEST CHCS FOR PRECIP THROUGH EXTREME SW VA AND NW NC
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MEAGER SURFACE HIGH WILL ARRIVE IN A WEDGE POSITION BY SUNDAY ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING A SUPPLY OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR THROUGH MUCH
OF OUR REGION. SOME INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME SW
AND WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE DUE TO WEAK SE WINDS...PRECIP CHCS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SW AND NW NC. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE COAST...RETURN FLOW DELIVERS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR...LEADING
TO A WIDER SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. H85 TEMPS MAY RETURN TO THE UPPER TEENS SOUTH OF WHAT LOOKS TO
BE A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SCATTERED MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING IN THE
UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEST OF I77 TONIGHT. BLF AND BCB HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT AIRPORTS WHICH HAVE RAIN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL HAVE
FOG OVERNIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH.

UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS REGIONWIDE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS LIKELY WITH STORMS CLUSTERING TOGETHER
IN SHORT LINE SEGMENTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES AFTER
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES OVERHEAD AND WEAKENS.
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WITH BETTER OPPORTUNITY
FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/KK/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
520 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-110930-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
520 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE WARMEST...PROMOTING THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. BY THURSDAY...STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOWER MOVING WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

AFTER THURSDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
717 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW CLAYTOR LAKE STATE 37.01N 80.66W
06/10/2014                   PULASKI            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON CECILS CHAPEL RD

&&

JVC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
733 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

VAZ014-110015-
MONTGOMERY VA-
733 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 732 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PRICES FORK...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT
  15 MPH.

* WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BLACKSBURG...
  PRICES FORK...
  WALTON...
  MERRIMAC...
  AND MC DONALDS MILL.

THIS INCLUDES VIRGINIA TECH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 8027 3731 8026 3714 8048 3717 8054
      3719 8053 3720 8051 3721 8052 3728 8049
      3730 8046 3735 8035 3737 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 207DEG 13KT 3719 8049

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     HAIL             RICHLANDS               37.10N 81.80W
06/10/2014  E0.88 INCH       TAZEWELL           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KKOSTURA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
811 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     HAIL             BLAND                   37.10N 81.12W
06/10/2014  E1.00 INCH       BLAND              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN BLAND

&&

JVC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
814 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

WVZ044-045-110115-
GREENBRIER WV-MONROE WV-
814 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
  NORTH CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 813 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ORGAN CAVE...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT
  35 MPH.

* PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LEWISBURG...
  WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...
  RONCEVERTE...
  LEWISBURG AIRPORT...
  AND ALVON.

THIS INCLUDES THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE FAIRGROUNDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3789 8015 3784 8018 3780 8023 3779 8023
      3757 8046 3767 8057 3794 8035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 220DEG 29KT 3768 8048

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
821 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

VAZ007-010-WVZ042-110115-
TAZEWELL VA-BLAND VA-MERCER WV-
821 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  TAZEWELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  BLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  MERCER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 818 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
  INDICATED COUNTIES. STRONG STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR TAZEWELL AND
  BURKES GARDEN...NEAR BASTIAN...AND NORTHWEST OF BLUEFIELD...
  MOVING TO THE EAST AT 30 MPH.

* DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
  ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN
  BE EXPECTED FROM ALL OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ROCKY GAP...
  BLAND...
  PRINCETON...
  BLUEFIELD...
  AND BURKES GARDEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3724 8174 3720 8168 3721 8155 3727 8142
      3759 8116 3759 8110 3743 8086 3735 8085
      3727 8101 3706 8097 3702 8110 3705 8122
      3696 8138 3702 8150 3694 8168 3697 8171
      3697 8179 3712 8189 3714 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 275DEG 28KT 3716 8149

RAB