Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
414 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
CURRENT LINE OF STORMS IS THE FIRST OF TWO LINES EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WIND AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AND
THE SECOND LINE WILL ALSO HAVE A TORNADO POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY FOR
STORMS THAT REMAIN NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN MN.

THERE HAS BEEN MODERATE INCREASES IN SBCAPE AND MLCAPE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR IN FAR SOUTHERN MN OVER THE PAST 2-3
HOURS WITH THE 1000-1500 J/KG NOW BEING OBSERVED. NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THERE REMAINS A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THE WIND THREAT
WAS SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF SURFACE ROOTED
STORMS...BUT THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY ABOVE THE SURFACE BASED CIN
IS OBVIOUSLY ENOUGH TO OVERCOME AND WE ARE GETTING WINDS OF 40-70
MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED LINES AND BOWING
SEGMENTS. THIS THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR
WEST CENTRAL WI ESPECIALLY FOR CONVECTIVE LINES THAT ARE
PERPENDICULAR TO SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS. DRYING IN THE WATER VAPOR NOW ENTERING FAR SOUTHWEST MN AND
WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL...WINDS AND EVEN TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. THE STRONG
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT...BUT SURFACE
HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND CLOUD COVER.
NONETHELESS...THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS WILL HAVE HIGHER END
POTENTIAL AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

THE LONGER TERM CONTINUES TO POSE SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT ISSUES WITH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH DURING THE
PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  STILL CONSTITUTES
HIGHER CHANCE POPS AT THE MOMENT. AFTER THAT...THE LONGER TERM
MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA
INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS GRADUALLY MERGING AND LIFTING A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH/SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY
MIDWEEK.  THIS COULD INCLUDE THE THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL.  WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS TREND COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
50S AND LOWS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FROST FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 50 TO 60 MPH. ALL THE TAF
SITES WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
MINNESOTA SITES SHOULD SEE THUNDER BEFORE 6 PM AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM. LARGE HAIL IS THE BIGGEST THREAT
TODAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE ALREADY SCATTERED ABOUT...BUT CERTAINLY IN
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT BEHIND THE STORMS WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWER LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...

STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
KMSP SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE 2 ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE FIRST ROUND IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 5 PM
AND THE SECOND ROUND CLOSER TO 7 PM. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY. THE SECOND ROUND NEAR 7 PM HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING
WIND. THE EVENING COMMUTE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED BY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...MVFR AND CHC -SHRA EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS W AT 10G20KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS SSE 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS SW TO NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
091745-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1231 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...INCLUDING EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE THERE IS A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
508 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW LAKEVILLE         44.70N 93.26W
05/08/2014                   DAKOTA             MN   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            LIGHT POLES DOWN

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
509 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW LAKEVILLE         44.70N 93.26W
05/08/2014                   DAKOTA             MN   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            15 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN AT 175TH AND
            IPAVA

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
512 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BURNSVILLE              44.77N 93.28W
05/08/2014  E1.00 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   PUBLIC

            LOCAL STREET FLOODING.

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
515 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     TORNADO          6 WSW LAKE CRYSTAL      44.09N 94.33W
05/08/2014                   BLUE EARTH         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND.

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
534 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SE CEDAR FALLS        44.89N 91.82W
05/08/2014  E1.00 INCH       DUNN               WI   PUBLIC

            2 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER OVER HIGHWAY 29 5
            MILES EAST OF MENOMONIE

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
534 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ058-065-082315-
MEEKER-RENVILLE-
534 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING OVER MEEKER AND RENVILLE
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

AT 528 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTH OF FORT RIDGELY STATE PARK. THIS STORM
WAS MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HECTOR.
  CORVUSO.
  STROUT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4461 9478 4514 9476 4509 9446 4460 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 192DEG 37KT 4470 9471

JRB