Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1255 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH PLENTY OF UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE PLAINS IS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...ANY SORT OF LIFT HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY STRONG CONVECTION ALL NIGHT FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO CENTRAL TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON
THE FRINGE OF THE H7 THERMAL RIDGE AND ALSO WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG
H85-H7 FGEN. FEEDING ALL OF THIS HAS BEEN A 30-50KT LLJ. WITH THE
RAP SHOWING THIS LLJ WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GENERALLY
AGREE WITH HIRES MODELS DEPICTION OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SW
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON IN TERMS OF IMPACTING THE DEGREE OF HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WE SEE BUILD BACK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MANIFESTS ITSELF
IN THE FORM OF DIFFERING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIMES SEEN WITH THE
HIRES MODELS WHICH RANGES ANYWHERE FROM 17Z TO AS LATE AS 21Z. SO
REALLY APPEARS THIS IS A QUESTION OF WHEN DO STORMS OCCUR...NOT WILL
THEY BE ABLE TO COME BACK IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CLOUDS.

MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TODAY WITH AROUND A 997 MB SFC COMING UP
TO NEAR THE MARSHALL AREA AT 00Z...TRACKING TO AROUND THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA BY 6Z. THE WARM FRONT...WHICH AT 4 AM WAS STILL ACROSS
NRN IA...BY 00Z WILL BE NEAR A RWF OVER THE THE NRN TWIN CITIES
METRO. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...WE WILL HAVE A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND THEREFORE ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER. NEAR THE SFC LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS...THE NAM
SHOWS 0-3KM CAPE IN EXCESS OF 250 J/KG THAT IS COINCIDENT WITH NEAR
30 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND 0-1 KM HELICITY UP OVER 200 M2/S2. REALLY
THE BIGGEST ISSUE WE MAY HAVE IS DO WE HAVE TOO MUCH UPPER LEVEL
LIFT GIVEN ALL OF THE FORCING. COULD BE THE POTENTIAL THAT WE ARE
NOT ABLE TO FOCUS ACTIVITY AND INSTEAD END UP WITH WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT LACKS FOCUS WITH A LOWER SEVERE
POTENTIAL AS A RESULT. AT ANY RATE...GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
FORECAST COINCIDENT WITH A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT BEING DRAPED
ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING...CAN NOT ARGUE AT ALL WITH THE
MODERATE RISK IN THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

AS FOR WHAT IS EXPECTED...BASED ON HI-RES MODELS...STORMS LOOK TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z OUT IN SW MN...THEN RAPIDLY BUILD NORTH
AND EAST...REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. TIMING
WISE...WE COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AS SCHOOLS OUR LETTING OUT
WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES...WITH ACTIVITY REACHING THE METRO DURING
THE EVENING RUSH.

TONIGHT...THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF WRN WI BY 06Z WITH
STRONG WEST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS AS WELL THAT WILL BE LABELED MORE FOR THE NW MPX CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING INTO THE FA TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PUSHES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS OUR
ONE DRY PERIOD IN THE LONGER TERM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES BY.

THE BALANCE OF THE LONGER TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) WILL
FEATURE MORE WET WEATHER AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
COME TOGETHER JUST EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE LARGE UPPER
TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY
WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY REMAINS A
DAY OF INTEREST FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT...BOTH THE
GFS AND EC BRING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FA. BEYOND TUESDAY...IT WILL BE TURNING MUCH
COLDER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
50S. LOWS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WHICH WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR FROST POTENTIAL FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 50 TO 60 MPH. ALL THE TAF
SITES WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
MINNESOTA SITES SHOULD SEE THUNDER BEFORE 6 PM AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM. LARGE HAIL IS THE BIGGEST THREAT
TODAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE ALREADY SCATTERED ABOUT...BUT CERTAINLY IN
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT BEHIND THE STORMS WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWER LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...

STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
KMSP SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE 2 ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE FIRST ROUND IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 5 PM
AND THE SECOND ROUND CLOSER TO 7 PM. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY. THE SECOND ROUND NEAR 7 PM HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING
WIND. THE EVENING COMMUTE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED BY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...MVFR AND CHC -SHRA EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS W AT 10G20KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS SSE 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS SW TO NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
091745-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1231 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...INCLUDING EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE THERE IS A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1145 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1141 AM     HAIL             3 SW MORRISTOWN         44.20N 93.49W
05/08/2014  E0.75 INCH       WASECA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL

&&

MKM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1148 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ060-061-081730-
ANOKA-HENNEPIN-
1148 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER ANOKA AND HENNEPIN COUNTIES THROUGH
1230 PM CDT...

AT 1144 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR PLYMOUTH...OR 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRYSTAL. THIS
STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NEW HOPE.
  BROOKLYN PARK.
  COON RAPIDS.
  BLAINE.
  HAM LAKE.
  EAST BETHEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4541 9302 4530 9301 4495 9342 4500 9349
      4541 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1648Z 213DEG 40KT 4505 9338

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1150 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 AM     HAIL             CRYSTAL                 45.04N 93.36W
05/08/2014  M0.75 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL

&&

MKM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1201 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ047-081730-
STEVENS-
1201 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER STEVENS COUNTY THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

AT 1158 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF ARTICHOKE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTH
AT 55 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LAKE HATTIE.
  ALBERTA.
  DONNELLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4544 9625 4546 9625 4575 9616 4575 9598
      4567 9588 4541 9605 4540 9624 4541 9626
      4543 9626
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 198DEG 48KT 4537 9618

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1222 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ059-060-081745-
HENNEPIN-WRIGHT-
1222 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER WESTERN HENNEPIN AND EASTERN WRIGHT
COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1221 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF BUFFALO. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  DELANO.
  ROCKFORD.
  HANOVER.
  ALBERTVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4529 9359 4522 9353 4498 9378 4499 9390
      4530 9378 4530 9372
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 208DEG 43KT 4504 9381

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
108 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ065-067-073>075-081845-
BROWN-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-
108 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING DEVELOPING OVER BROWN...NICOLLET...
REDWOOD...RENVILLE AND SIBLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM CDT...

AT 107 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SLEEPY EYE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTH AT 55 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  COBDEN.
  EVAN.
  MORGAN.
  FORT RIDGELY STATE PARK.
  FAIRFAX.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4465 9493 4459 9457 4413 9484 4415 9502
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 198DEG 49KT 4424 9490

JRB