Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
111 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

ACTIVE SHORT TERM WITH 2-3 ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT
TONIGHT IS LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER...TOMORROW WILL BRING THE TREAT OF
HAIL...WIND AND TORNADOES.

TONIGHT...
MUCH OF WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NE HAS WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE...MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN
REMAINS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THE WARM FRONT IS JUST SOUTH OF THE MN/IA BORDER AND THERE IS A NICE
CU FIELD DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL IA ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE WARM LAYER ALOFT IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS
IA/NE...BUT CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS EASTERN SD AND WESTERN
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EDGE OF THE WARM LAYER BUT STILL WITHIN AN
AREA OF 1000+ MUCAPE AND NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC 700-500MB LAPSE RATES.
THIS COMBINED WITH 50-60KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS LED TO ROBUST
CONVECTION WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND REPORTS OF HAIL AS LARGE AS
BASEBALLS NEAR THE MN/SD STATE LINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST...BUT WEAKEN THE FARTHER NORTH-NORTHEAST IT GETS AS
IT RUNS OUT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

FARTHER EAST...IN EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...THE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE NORTHWARD
SURGING WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PROMOTE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION CLOSER TO SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL DECREASE THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO IN
MN. THIS MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE SEVERITY OF STORMS LATE THIS EVENING
IN AREAS FARTHER EAST...BUT NONETHELESS...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND SEVERE HAIL IS LIKELY
WITH THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING. 1-2" HAILSTONES WILL BE EASILY
ATTAINABLE IN AREAS SUCH AS THE TWIN CITIES METRO...AND SIG SEVERE
HAIL />2"/ CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN WHAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED
TODAY. WHILE WE DON'T THINK STORMS WILL BE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THIS EVENING...IF ANY ACTIVITY MANAGES TO FORM IN FAR SOUTHERN
MN CLOSE TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...THESE STORMS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR HAZARDS OTHER THAN LARGE HAIL.

TOMORROW...
THE PATTERN TOMORROW LOOKS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE
NAM REMAINS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST WITH THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT IN STRETCHING THE WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST WI BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 12Z
SOLUTIONS ALSO HAVE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH THE ADVANCING 100KT 300MB
JET...AND 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS BETWEEN 15Z-18Z SUGGEST CONVECTION
WILL HAPPEN EARLY AND BE WIDESPREAD. THIS COMPLICATES THE AFTERNOON
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE HEATING AND THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST OVERLAP IN 0-1KM SHEAR...0-6KM SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR FROM 18-00Z IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S COMBINED WITH THE STEEP PROFILE
WILL GENERATE 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE.  THERE IS ALSO THE ADDED
HELICITY DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. WEAKENING
CIN AND STRONG FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT STORMS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A THREAT TO STRAIGHT LINE WIND AND TORNADOES. THE STORMS
WILL BE MOVING FAST AND QUICKLY END UP IN WISCONSIN BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD OF
THE LONG TERM. WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY WANE TOWARD THE 06Z TIME
PERIOD. THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND SURFACE LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE AREA AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BECOMING DRY BY FRIDAY EVENING.

LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO TREND
SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH. THIS CONTINUES TO
SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
A GENERAL OVERALL COOLING TREND AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

JUST BABYSITTING STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW...ONLY
TERMINAL TO STILL WORRY ABOUT THOSE IS RNH. BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW STORMS TO THE SW WILL EVOLVE. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOVE
INTO THE RWF AREA AROUND 9Z AND MSP 11/12Z. THIS IS WHY THERE IS A
VCSH MENTION IN MANY AREAS DURING THE MORNING. STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE STORMS THU AFTERNOON. EXPECT STORM TO INITIATE BY 20Z
BETWEEN RWF/MSP THEN HEAD EAST. CONTINUED TREND OF KEEPING CIGS
MAINLY VFR...NOT EXPECTING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS UNTIL WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WORKS INTO WRN MN DURING THE
EVENING...THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT.

KMSP...WE ARE ON AT LEAST A 4 HOUR BREAK UNTIL REMNANTS OF
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SW MN IMPACTING THE FIELD IN ONE FORM OR
ANOTHER DURING THE MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THIS
BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA...SO CONFIDENCE A BIT LOWER IN HOW IT WILL
EVOLVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME RATHER NASTY STORMS IN THE METRO
AREA BETWEEN 20Z AND 2Z. THESE COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
TRAFFIC DURING THE EVENING PUSH. MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN VIRTUALLY NON
EXISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO CONTINUED TO IMPROVE CIGS. ANY
LOWER CIGS LOOK TO COME IN WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR AND CHC -SHRA EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS W AT 10G20KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS SSE 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS SW TO NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
728 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
090030-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
728 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AND SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
101 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HAIL             LAKEVILLE               44.65N 93.25W
05/08/2014  M1.25 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AJZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
116 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     HAIL             INVER GROVE HEIGHTS     44.83N 93.06W
05/08/2014  M0.75 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
202 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ052-053-061-080745-
ANOKA-CHISAGO-ISANTI-
202 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING OVER ANOKA...CHISAGO AND
ISANTI COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CDT...

AT 159 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF EAST BETHEL. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

ACCUMULATING SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INDOORS UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4572 9285 4566 9287 4529 9348 4544 9351
      4574 9314 4574 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0701Z 222DEG 31KT 4545 9330

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
210 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ058-059-065>067-080745-
MCLEOD-MEEKER-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-WRIGHT-
210 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING OVER MCLEOD...MEEKER...
RENVILLE...SIBLEY AND WRIGHT COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CDT...

AT 207 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING 10 MILES WEST OF LAKE MARION REGIONAL PARK. THESE STORMS
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4526 9436 4504 9402 4470 9457 4479 9470
TIME...MOT...LOC 0710Z 216DEG 50KT 4482 9455

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
223 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ049-057-080815-
KANDIYOHI-STEARNS-
223 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER KANDIYOHI AND STEARNS COUNTIES
THROUGH 315 AM CDT...

AT 220 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF NORWAY LAKE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4553 9472 4513 9510 4522 9525 4528 9526
      4542 9516 4542 9513 4546 9513 4564 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 0723Z 211DEG 33KT 4526 9514

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ050-051-080845-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-
305 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS BENTON AND SHERBURNE COUNTIES
THROUGH 345 AM CDT...

AT 302 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST CLOUD...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SAUK RAPIDS. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ST CLOUD AIRPORT.
  DUELM.
  PARENT.
  MAYHEW.
  GILMAN.
  LITTLE ROCK.

LAT...LON 4582 9376 4548 9377 4549 9414 4553 9415
      4555 9414 4560 9418 4583 9412
TIME...MOT...LOC 0805Z 192DEG 38KT 4553 9403