Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1255 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH PLENTY OF UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE PLAINS IS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...ANY SORT OF LIFT HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY STRONG CONVECTION ALL NIGHT FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO CENTRAL TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON
THE FRINGE OF THE H7 THERMAL RIDGE AND ALSO WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG
H85-H7 FGEN. FEEDING ALL OF THIS HAS BEEN A 30-50KT LLJ. WITH THE
RAP SHOWING THIS LLJ WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GENERALLY
AGREE WITH HIRES MODELS DEPICTION OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SW
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON IN TERMS OF IMPACTING THE DEGREE OF HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WE SEE BUILD BACK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MANIFESTS ITSELF
IN THE FORM OF DIFFERING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIMES SEEN WITH THE
HIRES MODELS WHICH RANGES ANYWHERE FROM 17Z TO AS LATE AS 21Z. SO
REALLY APPEARS THIS IS A QUESTION OF WHEN DO STORMS OCCUR...NOT WILL
THEY BE ABLE TO COME BACK IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CLOUDS.

MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TODAY WITH AROUND A 997 MB SFC COMING UP
TO NEAR THE MARSHALL AREA AT 00Z...TRACKING TO AROUND THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA BY 6Z. THE WARM FRONT...WHICH AT 4 AM WAS STILL ACROSS
NRN IA...BY 00Z WILL BE NEAR A RWF OVER THE THE NRN TWIN CITIES
METRO. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...WE WILL HAVE A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND THEREFORE ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER. NEAR THE SFC LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS...THE NAM
SHOWS 0-3KM CAPE IN EXCESS OF 250 J/KG THAT IS COINCIDENT WITH NEAR
30 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND 0-1 KM HELICITY UP OVER 200 M2/S2. REALLY
THE BIGGEST ISSUE WE MAY HAVE IS DO WE HAVE TOO MUCH UPPER LEVEL
LIFT GIVEN ALL OF THE FORCING. COULD BE THE POTENTIAL THAT WE ARE
NOT ABLE TO FOCUS ACTIVITY AND INSTEAD END UP WITH WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT LACKS FOCUS WITH A LOWER SEVERE
POTENTIAL AS A RESULT. AT ANY RATE...GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
FORECAST COINCIDENT WITH A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT BEING DRAPED
ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING...CAN NOT ARGUE AT ALL WITH THE
MODERATE RISK IN THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

AS FOR WHAT IS EXPECTED...BASED ON HI-RES MODELS...STORMS LOOK TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z OUT IN SW MN...THEN RAPIDLY BUILD NORTH
AND EAST...REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. TIMING
WISE...WE COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AS SCHOOLS OUR LETTING OUT
WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES...WITH ACTIVITY REACHING THE METRO DURING
THE EVENING RUSH.

TONIGHT...THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF WRN WI BY 06Z WITH
STRONG WEST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS AS WELL THAT WILL BE LABELED MORE FOR THE NW MPX CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING INTO THE FA TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PUSHES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS OUR
ONE DRY PERIOD IN THE LONGER TERM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES BY.

THE BALANCE OF THE LONGER TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) WILL
FEATURE MORE WET WEATHER AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
COME TOGETHER JUST EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE LARGE UPPER
TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY
WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY REMAINS A
DAY OF INTEREST FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT...BOTH THE
GFS AND EC BRING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FA. BEYOND TUESDAY...IT WILL BE TURNING MUCH
COLDER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
50S. LOWS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WHICH WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR FROST POTENTIAL FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 50 TO 60 MPH. ALL THE TAF
SITES WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
MINNESOTA SITES SHOULD SEE THUNDER BEFORE 6 PM AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM. LARGE HAIL IS THE BIGGEST THREAT
TODAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE ALREADY SCATTERED ABOUT...BUT CERTAINLY IN
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT BEHIND THE STORMS WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWER LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...

STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
KMSP SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE 2 ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE FIRST ROUND IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 5 PM
AND THE SECOND ROUND CLOSER TO 7 PM. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY. THE SECOND ROUND NEAR 7 PM HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING
WIND. THE EVENING COMMUTE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED BY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...MVFR AND CHC -SHRA EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS W AT 10G20KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS SSE 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS SW TO NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
091745-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1231 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...INCLUDING EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE THERE IS A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
154 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     HAIL             FAIRFAX                 44.53N 94.72W
05/08/2014  E0.88 INCH       RENVILLE           MN   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED. REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MKM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
204 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ083-081930-
BLUE EARTH-
204 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO BLUE EARTH COUNTY THROUGH 230 PM
CDT...

AT 159 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTH OF MADELIA. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTH
AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  VERNON CENTER.
  LAKE CRYSTAL.
  MINNEOPA STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4385 9437 4424 9435 4422 9425 4421 9423
      4422 9422 4420 9421 4420 9414 4415 9405
      4417 9400 4419 9401 4419 9399 4385 9420
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 198DEG 40KT 4391 9429

JRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
212 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ092-081945-
FARIBAULT-
212 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO FARIBAULT COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

AT 208 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLUE EARTH...OR 20 MILES WEST OF
LAKE MILLS. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BRICELYN.
  BRUSH CREEK.
  WELLS.
  MINNESOTA LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9400 4385 9388 4385 9366 4385 9365
      4367 9365 4349 9378 4349 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 208DEG 53KT 4348 9390

JRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
221 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ051-059-061-081945-
ANOKA-SHERBURNE-WRIGHT-
221 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO ANOKA...SHERBURNE AND WRIGHT COUNTIES
THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

AT 217 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF BUFFALO. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SILVER CREEK.
  MONTICELLO.
  BIG LAKE.
  SAND DUNES STATE FOREST.
  ZIMMERMAN.
  PRINCETON AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4542 9351 4541 9349 4515 9377 4525 9399
      4556 9375 4556 9351
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 212DEG 40KT 4529 9380

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
251 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1141 AM     HAIL             3 SW MORRISTOWN         44.20N 93.49W
05/08/2014  E0.75 INCH       WASECA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL

1149 AM     HAIL             CRYSTAL                 45.04N 93.36W
05/08/2014  M0.75 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL

0135 PM     HAIL             FAIRFAX                 44.53N 94.72W
05/08/2014  E0.88 INCH       RENVILLE           MN   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED. REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
255 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

MNZ067>069-075>077-083>085-093-082045-
BLUE EARTH-CARVER-FREEBORN-LE
SUEUR-NICOLLET-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-
255 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER BLUE EARTH...CARVER...FREEBORN...LE
SUEUR...NICOLLET...RICE...SCOTT...SIBLEY...STEELE AND WASECA
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

AT 250 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF GAYLORD TO
11 MILES EAST OF MANKATO TO 10 MILES NORTH OF ALBERT LEA. THESE
STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. SOME STREET FLOODING CAN
BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  LAKE JEFFERSON.
  ST THOMAS.
  GREEN ISLE.
  HAMBURG.
  NORWOOD/YOUNG AMERICA.
  ST BENEDICT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 9 PM CDT.

&&

LAT...LON 4417 9381 4468 9424 4472 9415 4472 9402
      4478 9402 4490 9377 4489 9367 4466 9340
      4410 9303 4352 9304 4349 9348
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 210DEG 42KT 4459 9404 4425 9374
          4383 9333

BORGHOFF