Areal Flood Warning 17, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
355 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...

A BROAD AND VERY SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY...A REGION OF
ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND STRONG OMEGA HAS LED TO A PERIOD OF
EXTENDED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF LOWER ALABAMA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONTINUED
BANDING OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...AND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY TO REFLECT
THIS RISK. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSITION TO THE
EAST...FROM OVER ESCAMBIA COUNTY THIS MORNING EASTWARD INTO SANTA
ROSA AND OKALOOSA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
HAVE KEPT IN LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...TOWARD MOBILE BAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST WILL FINALLY
BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AND EXPECT ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING JUST
OFFSHORE...SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FORTUNATELY...THE AMOUNT OF AVAIBLE MOISTURE THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
TO WORK WITH WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED...AND NO FURTHER
EXACERBATION OF THE FLOODING ISSUES IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE RISK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS SOME
WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASED DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARING VORT MAX. THIS BRIEF RESPITE WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE SLIDES
THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN...THE LINGERING FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND HAVE
KEPT IN LOW END CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS THE FRONT STALLS
OFFSHORE...WITH THE MOST DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE NOTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...

IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT MAX ON FRIDAY...A BROAD AND DEEP RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS STRONG RIDGING WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO
MORE NORMAL READINGS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      78  52  75  50  76 /  40  20  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   79  57  76  54  76 /  60  30  10  30  10
DESTIN      77  64  74  62  72 /  70  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   80  52  75  48  76 /  60  10  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  76  44  74  45  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      78  49  73  48  75 /  60  10  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   80  56  76  50  75 /  70  30  10  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...UPPER BALDWIN...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

32

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ALZ059-060-FLZ003-005-301430-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
832 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING COVINGTON COUNTY...
ESCAMBIA COUNTY...INLAND OKALOOSA COUNTY...INLAND SANTA ROSA
COUNTY...

AT 828 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRESTVIEW...OR ABOUT OVER
CANNON TOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...BRADLEY...
BLACKMAN...CRESTVIEW AIRPORT...AUBURN...ESCAMBIA FARMS...PEADEN...
GOOD HOPE...DEERLAND...CAMPTON...WING...FALCO...DORCAS...PLEASANT
HOME...LAUREL HILL...SVEA...WATKINS BRIDGE...RED OAK...CAROLINA...
LOCKHART...FLORALA...LIBERTYVILLE...STEDMAN...HOWELLS...SANFORD...
GREEN BAY...ONYCHA...BABBIE...OPP...EODA AND ESTOTHEL

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MJH