Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Mobile, AL

928 
WWUS54 KMOB 300541
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1241 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014

FLC091-113-300552-
/O.EXP.KMOB.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-140430T0545Z/
OKALOOSA FL-SANTA ROSA FL-
1241 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1245 AM CDT...

LAT...LON 3037 8716 3042 8707 3041 8707 3044 8695
      3050 8702 3064 8685 3072 8639 3045 8639
      3048 8646 3041 8659 3042 8643 3041 8639
      3038 8639 3037 8640 3039 8670 3037 8691
      3039 8689 3039 8694
TIME...MOT...LOC 0542Z 314DEG 22KT 3035 8607 3009 8655

$$

MJH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
524 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
OF LA...MS...AL AND NWFL MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 60 MPH. MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG DURING THE LAST 4 HOURS BUT
REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FOR MOST AREAS AHEAD OF
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS FROM SPC SHOW MIXED LAYERED CAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND
450 M2/S2 FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WHAT THIS MEANS
MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
GUN FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST
AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH MOST OF THE WED
MORNING...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW MEANDERING
OVER THE NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED MORNING
WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SOME FOG TO DEVELOP MOSTLY DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY
SATURATED GROUND. ALSO BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL STILL HAVE CHANCE FOR
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH WED MORNING DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN
THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH WED MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
ONLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

.LONG TERM....WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED
TROUGHING IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TO SOUTHERN TX THROUGH EARLY SAT. WITH THIS SOME AREAS ALONG THE
COAST MOSTLY EAST OF PENSACOLA FL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE
COAST STRETCHING OFFSHORE THU THROUGH FRI. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE CWFA BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER DRYING IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...[29.18Z AND 30.00Z ISSUANCE]...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 30.18Z FOLLOWED BY IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 01.00Z.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDAY WED THEN TAPERING OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST
TO EAST WED AFTERNOON. DUE TO A VERY SATURATED GROUND SURFACE AREAS
OF FOG WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT POSSIBLY BECOMING DENSE AT
TIMES NEAR SUNRISE WED MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT SHIFTING SOUTHWEST THEN WEST THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON WED. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW MOSTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS AT 5
TO 7 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4 TO 5
FEET LATE WED THROUGH FRI MORNING. SEAS AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. 32/EE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE FORECAST
AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE PLAINS WILL KEEP A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
LEVELS LIKELY IN STORMS ALONG WITH THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
DAYTIME DISPERSION IS FORECAST TO BE GOOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...DUE TO A VERY SATURATED GROUND AREAS
OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR MOST ARRAS. LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  79  54  73  51 /  80  50  20  10  30
PENSACOLA   70  76  60  72  56 /  80  60  30  10  30
DESTIN      70  74  64  69  59 /  80  60  30  10  30
EVERGREEN   68  79  53  71  48 /  80  60  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  60  77  49  70  47 /  60  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN      66  79  51  71  48 /  80  40  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   72  81  58  74  49 /  80  60  30  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1045 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-010345-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1045 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. RAIN TOTALS OF 5 TO 11 INCHES
HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREA ALONG
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE LOCALLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY
PERSIST EAST OF I-65 THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-010345-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1045 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT DUE TO A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS.

STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE
GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
820 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     FLOOD            4 NE ELBERTA            30.44N 87.55W
04/29/2014                   BALDWIN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD FLOODING AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS. JAKE FRANK ROAD
            AND CR 95. FRANK ROAD EAST OF CR 87 AND WEST OF CR 95.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
831 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 SW PENSACOLA         30.32N 87.34W
04/29/2014  M52.00 MPH       ESCAMBIA           FL   ASOS

            MEASURED AT KNPA.

0820 PM     HAIL             6 SE MOBILE AIRPORT     30.62N 88.17W
04/29/2014  E0.50 INCH       MOBILE             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL NEAR INTERSECTION OF GRELOT AND KNOLLWOOD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
845 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E MOBILE AIRPORT      30.68N 88.17W
04/29/2014                   MOBILE             AL   STORM CHASER

            INTERSECTION OF UNIVERSITY AND OLD SHELL IS UNDERWATER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
905 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             PENSACOLA               30.42N 87.22W
04/29/2014  E0.75 INCH       ESCAMBIA           FL   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1011 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SPANISH FORT            30.67N 87.92W
04/29/2014                   BALDWIN            AL   PUBLIC

            HIGH WATER OVER HWY 31 NEAR SPANISH FORT BLVD WITH WATER
            CASCADING OVER CAR HOODS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1015 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CANTONMENT              30.61N 87.34W
04/29/2014                   ESCAMBIA           FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            *** 1 FATAL *** CONFIRMED FATALITY DROWNING VICTIM IN
            SUBMERGED VEHICLE ON HWY 29 NEAR CHEMSTRAND. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&