Flash Flood Watch 9, NWS Memphis, TN

Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Obion County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Weakley County, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
254 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL
OF MISSOURI...WITH TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEN IN THE PAST 4 TO 5 HOURS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH
AS 4 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST CLAY COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ARE
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S...WITH A FEW LOW 80S IN THE MEMPHIS METRO.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...TO INCLUDE THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE BUMPED UP
HIGHS TO NEAR 90F THERE. FURTHER NORTH THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO
THE I-40 CORRIDOR AROUND NOON...SO TEMPERATURES IN THIS ZONE
SHOULD CLIMB A FEW DEGREES...REACHING THE LOW 80S. LONGEST TIME IN
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE THE NORTH TODAY...AND WITH THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY CLIMB TO THE MID 70S...ROUGHLY TEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET A BIGGER PUSH
LATE TONIGHT TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
IN WESTERN MONTANA SWINGS INTO THE DAKOTAS. FROM THIS THERE MAY BE
A SMALL WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER/LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT WAVE. MODELS INDICATE
DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE
BUMPED UP FRIDAY MORNING LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COOL...CLOUDY...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MIDWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SHOW LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
...SO A RISK FOR MORE THUNDER IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE NEAR SURFACED BASED CONVECTION REMAINS
FAVORABLE. THE CANADIAN 1036MB HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS
AND MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST. THE DEEPER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN
MIDSOUTH CHANGING THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION TO MORE
STABLE/STRATIFORM RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
ARE PROBABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH DRIER AIR FINALLY
BEGINNING TO CLEAR THINGS ACROSS THE NORTH. UNFORTUNATELY IT
APPEARS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
CLEARING UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND
PLEASANT. HOWEVER A SECOND COLD FRONT...FORECASTED TO BE
WEAKER...WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR
SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH
ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ALONG THIS FRONT. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DELAYED THUS FAR BUT NOW
BEGINNING TO ENTER JBR...MEM AROUND 11/08Z...MKL AROUND
11/09Z...AND NOT UNTIL 11/17Z AT TUP. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS FRONT
AND IMPROVE BACK TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP AT MKL/TUP THURSDAY
EVENING. S/SW WINDS WILL VEER NW/N WITH PASSAGE OF THIS COLD
FRONT BETWEEN 6-10 KTS.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
303 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-121015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
303 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT
TODAY SOUTH OF A JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO A DRESDEN TENNESSEE LINE.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
410 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 AM     FLASH FLOOD      12 NW RIPLEY            35.87N 89.69W
09/11/2014                   LAUDERDALE         TN   PUBLIC

            FLOODING ON CHISOLM LAKE ROAD. BRIDGE NEAR LAKE
            IMPASSABLE.

&&

JAB