Flash Flood Warning 131, NWS Memphis, TN

148 
WGUS74 KMEG 111053
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
553 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

ARC031-093-MOC069-155-TNC045-097-111101-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0131.000000T0000Z-140911T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DYER TN-LAUDERDALE TN-CRAIGHEAD AR-DUNKLIN MO-PEMISCOT MO-
MISSISSIPPI AR-
553 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN PEMISCOT...SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN...EASTERN CRAIGHEAD...
LAUDERDALE AND DYER COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS 
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS 
BEEN CANCELLED. MOTORISTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO 
RUNOFF FROM THE EARLIER VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN 
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS 
MORNING WHICH COULD PROMPT ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. A FLASH 
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY. 

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3616 8927 3591 8931 3582 8936 3582 8940
      3577 8944 3574 8943 3567 8947 3560 8947
      3558 8950 3565 8962 3563 8966 3565 8976
      3562 8981 3568 9029 3570 9029 3571 9051
      3596 9047 3607 8997

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
254 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL
OF MISSOURI...WITH TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEN IN THE PAST 4 TO 5 HOURS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH
AS 4 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST CLAY COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ARE
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S...WITH A FEW LOW 80S IN THE MEMPHIS METRO.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...TO INCLUDE THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE BUMPED UP
HIGHS TO NEAR 90F THERE. FURTHER NORTH THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO
THE I-40 CORRIDOR AROUND NOON...SO TEMPERATURES IN THIS ZONE
SHOULD CLIMB A FEW DEGREES...REACHING THE LOW 80S. LONGEST TIME IN
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE THE NORTH TODAY...AND WITH THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY CLIMB TO THE MID 70S...ROUGHLY TEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET A BIGGER PUSH
LATE TONIGHT TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
IN WESTERN MONTANA SWINGS INTO THE DAKOTAS. FROM THIS THERE MAY BE
A SMALL WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER/LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT WAVE. MODELS INDICATE
DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE
BUMPED UP FRIDAY MORNING LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COOL...CLOUDY...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MIDWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SHOW LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
...SO A RISK FOR MORE THUNDER IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE NEAR SURFACED BASED CONVECTION REMAINS
FAVORABLE. THE CANADIAN 1036MB HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS
AND MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST. THE DEEPER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN
MIDSOUTH CHANGING THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION TO MORE
STABLE/STRATIFORM RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
ARE PROBABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH DRIER AIR FINALLY
BEGINNING TO CLEAR THINGS ACROSS THE NORTH. UNFORTUNATELY IT
APPEARS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
CLEARING UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND
PLEASANT. HOWEVER A SECOND COLD FRONT...FORECASTED TO BE
WEAKER...WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR
SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH
ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ALONG THIS FRONT. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DELAYED THUS FAR BUT NOW
BEGINNING TO ENTER JBR...MEM AROUND 11/08Z...MKL AROUND
11/09Z...AND NOT UNTIL 11/17Z AT TUP. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS FRONT
AND IMPROVE BACK TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP AT MKL/TUP THURSDAY
EVENING. S/SW WINDS WILL VEER NW/N WITH PASSAGE OF THIS COLD
FRONT BETWEEN 6-10 KTS.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
303 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-121015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
303 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT
TODAY SOUTH OF A JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO A DRESDEN TENNESSEE LINE.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
410 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 AM     FLASH FLOOD      12 NW RIPLEY            35.87N 89.69W
09/11/2014                   LAUDERDALE         TN   PUBLIC

            FLOODING ON CHISOLM LAKE ROAD. BRIDGE NEAR LAKE
            IMPASSABLE.

&&

JAB