Flash Flood Warning 136, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
609 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

UPDATED FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

TRAINING STORMS CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO
BUILD SOUTH ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FURTHER WEST GROWING AREA
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CROSSING ARKANSAS...AND LIKELY TO MOVE
INTO ALREADY FLOODED AREAS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE BOOTHEEL
OF MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...WITH A SLOW DRIFT SOUTHWARD.
LATER TODAY...THROUGH FRIDAY A SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY IS FORECASTED
TO RE-GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION. HAVE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACCORDINGLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A HELENA
ARKANSAS TO CORINTH MISSISSIPPI LINE...WHERE TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL
OF MISSOURI...WITH TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEN IN THE PAST 4 TO 5 HOURS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH
AS 4 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST CLAY COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ARE
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S...WITH A FEW LOW 80S IN THE MEMPHIS
METRO.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...TO INCLUDE THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE BUMPED UP
HIGHS TO NEAR 90F THERE. FURTHER NORTH THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO
THE I-40 CORRIDOR AROUND NOON...SO TEMPERATURES IN THIS ZONE
SHOULD CLIMB A FEW DEGREES...REACHING THE LOW 80S. LONGEST TIME IN
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE THE NORTH TODAY...AND WITH THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY CLIMB TO THE MID 70S...ROUGHLY TEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET A BIGGER PUSH
LATE TONIGHT TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
IN WESTERN MONTANA SWINGS INTO THE DAKOTAS. FROM THIS THERE MAY BE
A SMALL WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER/LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT WAVE. MODELS INDICATE
DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE
BUMPED UP FRIDAY MORNING LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COOL...CLOUDY...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MIDWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SHOW LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
.SO A RISK FOR MORE THUNDER IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE NEAR SURFACED BASED CONVECTION REMAINS
FAVORABLE. THE CANADIAN 1036MB HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS
AND MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST. THE DEEPER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN
MIDSOUTH CHANGING THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION TO MORE
STABLE/STRATIFORM RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
ARE PROBABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH DRIER AIR FINALLY
BEGINNING TO CLEAR THINGS ACROSS THE NORTH. UNFORTUNATELY IT
APPEARS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
CLEARING UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND
PLEASANT. HOWEVER A SECOND COLD FRONT...FORECASTED TO BE
WEAKER...WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR
SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (11/12Z-12/12Z)

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. CONVECTION TEMPORARILY ENDING
FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER
SOUTHWARD...BEFORE A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A VARIETY OF CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KTUP EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON...AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR. SW-W WINDS 5-8
KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...TURNING TO THE N AND NE AT 7-11 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
437 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-121145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
437 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE MIDSOUTH...SPECIFICALLY NORTH OF A HELENA ARKANSAS TO CORINTH
MISSISSIPPI LINE.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT
TODAY SOUTH OF A JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO A DRESDEN TENNESSEE LINE.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
808 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GERMANTOWN              35.09N 89.79W
09/11/2014                   SHELBY             TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SIDE STREETS FLOODED NEAR FARMINGTON ELEMENTARY.

&&

ZDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
814 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COVINGTON               35.57N 89.65W
09/11/2014  M5.00 INCH       TIPTON             TN   PUBLIC

            FIVE INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED IN COVINGTON.

&&

ZDM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
819 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BARTLETT                35.22N 89.84W
09/11/2014                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            YALE ROAD WEST OF WHITTEN IS FLOODED AND POLICE
            DEPARTMENT HAVE BLOCKED.

&&

ZDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
820 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N MEMPHIS             35.00N 90.14W
09/11/2014                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEMPHIS FIRE DEPT IS CALLING FOR BOATS TO RESCUE PEOPLE
            TRAPPED IN HOUSES ON MOUNT TERRACE DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

ZDM

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