Flash Flood Warning 129, NWS Memphis, TN

424 
WGUS74 KMEG 110812
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
312 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

ARC021-055-075-121-MOC069-111000-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0129.000000T0000Z-140911T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CLAY AR-DUNKLIN MO-GREENE AR-LAWRENCE AR-RANDOLPH AR-
312 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN RANDOLPH...LAWRENCE...GREENE...DUNKLIN AND CLAY COUNTIES...

AT 312 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 4 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HORNERSVILLE
JUNCTION...KENNETT...SENATH...CORNING...PIGGOTT...RECTOR...
POCAHONTAS...MARMADUKE...PARAGOULD...BLACK ROCK...HOXIE...WALNUT
RIDGE...FRISBEE...WHITE OAK...IPLEY...DILLMAN...SCOBEVILLE...DEER
LAND...VINCIT...OCTA...CARUTH...BOWIE CORNER...RIVES...BUCODA...BUCK
DONIC...HOLLYWOOD...SUNRISE...PAULDING...CHALK BLUFF NATURAL AREA...
CROWLEYS RIDGE STATE PARK...LAKE CHARLES STATE PARK AND LAKE FRIERSON
STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

.MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 9016 3642 8996 3607 8996 3603 9006
      3600 9026 3600 9037 3598 9039 3596 9047
      3597 9085 3590 9088 3589 9096 3589 9124
      3637 9125

$$

048 
WGUS74 KMEG 110959
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
459 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

ARC021-055-075-121-MOC069-111007-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0129.000000T0000Z-140911T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CLAY AR-DUNKLIN MO-GREENE AR-LAWRENCE AR-RANDOLPH AR-
459 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 500 AM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
RANDOLPH...LAWRENCE...GREENE...DUNKLIN AND CLAY COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DECREASED IN 
COVERAGE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS 
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. MOTORISTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE 
CAUTION DUE TO RUNOFF FROM THE EARLIER VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO 
THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING WHICH COULD PROMPT ADDITIONAL FLASH 
FLOOD WARNINGS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY. 

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3651 9016 3642 8996 3607 8996 3603 9006
      3600 9026 3600 9037 3598 9039 3596 9047
      3597 9085 3590 9088 3589 9096 3589 9124
      3637 9125

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1151 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014/

UPDATE...
COLD FRONT WAS ON THE WAY AT MIDEVENING...ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED EARLIER TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST MO...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A PREFRONTAL PRESSURE TROF OVER FAR NORTHEAST AR.

SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.3 INCHES...
PERSISTENT 250MB DIVERGENCE ORIENTED OVER THE FRONT HAVE RAISED
SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
EARLY INDICATIONS FROM KLZK RADAR SHOWED WEAKENING INSTABILITY
BEGINNING TO HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND RAINFALL
RATES OF UPSTREAM STORMS AT 930 PM. IN ANY CASE...HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED VERY LIGHT.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHICAGO THROUGH EASTERN
MISSOURI AND INTO WEST TEXAS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHICH WILL MEAN MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SO MORE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINGING AND END TO THE THREAT OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
THAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING MAINLY IN THE 50S. THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WITH WARMER AIR
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY A NEW COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND FALL APART TUESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS THERE WILL STILL BE
A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THINGS DRY
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH
ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ALONG THIS FRONT. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DELAYED THUS FAR BUT NOW
BEGINNING TO ENTER JBR...MEM AROUND 11/08Z...MKL AROUND
11/09Z...AND NOT UNTIL 11/17Z AT TUP. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS FRONT
AND IMPROVE BACK TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP AT MKL/TUP THURSDAY
EVENING. S/SW WINDS WILL VEER NW/N WITH PASSAGE OF THIS COLD
FRONT BETWEEN 6-10 KTS.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
715 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-120215-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
715 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS EVENING...AND FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH NORTHWEST TENNESSEE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PWB