Flash Flood Warning 101, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

392 
WGUS74 KMAF 211536
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NMC015-TXC109-301-389-211645-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0101.000000T0000Z-140921T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOVING-REEVES-CULBERSON-EDDY-
1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT/1045 AM
MDT/ FOR SOUTHERN EDDY...NORTHERN CULBERSON...NORTHWESTERN REEVES AND
LOVING COUNTIES...

AT 931 AM MDT...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALONG AND NEAR US 285 
BY MALAGA TO WEST OF ORLA. ADDITIONAL HOURLY RAINFALL OF A HALF AN 
INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA.  DUE TO RECENT 
RAINS...THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD CAUSE MORE FLASH FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
AVALON...CAVERN CITY AIR TERMINAL...CARLSBAD NORTH...BRANTLEY LAKE
STATE PARK...OTIS...LOVING...CARLSBAD AND AVALON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE. TURN AROUND... DONT
DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3182 10483 3246 10443 3269 10433 3266 10395
      3245 10395 3224 10410 3199 10375 3199 10335
      3148 10386

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Potential TSRA/MVFR CIGS/VSBY dominates this forecast cycle again
and have kept a mix of TEMPO and TSRA/SHRA with TSRA more likely at
CNM/HOB. By 21Z there could be some breaks in the BKN/OVC CIGS,
but still with so much mstr available SHRA/TSRA may form. Winds
are less of an issue with mostly e-se around 10kts expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
We are still dealing with the remnants of Odile with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected into Monday before the
weak circulation center finally dissipates. The rainfall areal
coverage has not been particularly great, but where rain is
falling, it is heavy with rates in excess of 1 inch per hour not at
all uncommon. On top of that many areas have received rain
recently and the soil is saturated so most additional precip is
running off. Thus will continue the Flash Flood Watch through
today and it may need to be extended into tonight especially in
southeastern New Mexico and the upper Trans Pecos.

Rain chances will drop some Monday then will really fall off
Tuesday as an upper level ridge rapidly amplifies over the
Rockies/Plains by mid week. In fact, models are indicating it
amplifies so much it will capture the southern end of a Midwest
trough and cause it to retrograde back towards Texas by Thursday.
This will keep lower heights across the CWA and prevent much
warming this forecast period. There could be some isolated storms
associated with this late in the week but will keep the late week
forecast mostly dry for now.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

&&

99

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-220900-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014 /300 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE...DAVIS...AND APACHE MOUNTAINS...
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...VAN
HORN AND THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...REEVES COUNTY AND THE UPPER
TRANS PECOS...AND PERMIAN BASIN. ABUNDANT RAINFALL HAS ALREADY
FALLEN IN THESE AREAS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO RAISE CONCERNS FOR MORE FLASH
FLOODING.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL..ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

ELEVATED FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TODAY AND TONIGHT
DUE TO RELEASES FROM RESERVOIRS IN MEXICO AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON BOTH
SIDES OF THE RIVER.  TRIBUTARIES AND ARROYOS TO THE PECOS
RIVER...SUCH AS THE RIO PENASCO...FOUR MILE DRAW...SOUTH SEVEN
RIVERS...ROCKY ARROYO...DARK CANYON...BLACK RIVER...DELAWARE
RIVER...AND WALNUT CANYON HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN THAT FALLS IN THOSE AREAS WILL QUICKLY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
RISES...IF NOT FLOODING. ALSO LINGERING FLOODING IN BORDEN AND
SCURRY COUNTIES IS STILL A CONCERN WITH RECORD FLOW ON THE
COLORADO RIVER SOUTHEAST OF GAIL...DEEP CREEK IN SCURRY COUNTY...AND
NEAR IRA SOUTHWEST OF J.B. THOMAS. FINALLY FLOODING ALONG THE
PECOS RIVER FROM RED BLUFF TO PECOS/BARSTOW IS STILL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST AREAS MONDAY...SO FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS MAY LINGER.

THE RIO GRANDE...PECOS RIVER...AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES AND
ARROYOS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN
FLASH FLOODING OR RIVER FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND