Flash Flood Warning 96, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

824 
WGUS74 KMAF 210337
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1037 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TXC329-210347-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FF.W.0096.000000T0000Z-140921T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MIDLAND-
1037 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MIDLAND COUNTY...

AT 1037 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND
EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS
CANCELLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAS PASSED...PONDING OF
WATER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON SOME ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS SHOULD REMAIN
CAUTIOUS AND BE PREPARED TO SLOW DOWN IF WATER IS ENCOUNTERED TO
PREVENT HYDROPLANING AND LOSS OF VEHICLE CONTROL.

&&

LAT...LON 3209 10200 3209 10192 3203 10183 3199 10193
      3201 10199

$$

05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions should become MVFR around 06z and continue through
at least Sunday morning at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected the next
24 hours at the terminals due to the remains of tropical system
and have added TEMPO groups for IFR conditions in thunderstorms
and fog.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Major flooding continued over portions of the forecast area due to
the remnants of Tropical System Odile.  Although the areal coverage
of rain today was not as extensive as Thursday or Friday, over 10
inches of rain fell over portions of Borden County from 6 to 9 am
CDT, and resulted in most of the Farm to Market roads being flooded
across the eastern half of the county, water rising to resident
homes and some roads being impassable in Gail.  In addition, flood
water was slow to recede over southern Eddy County, northern
Culberson and northern Reeves County.  Evacuations were reported on
the northwest side of the city of Pecos due to runoff from heavy
rain to their west and northwest spreading east and southeast.

It appears the mid level remnants of Odile are weakening today, but
shearing out and moving southeastward across the Texas Panhandle.  A
Mesoscale Convective Vortex over the northern CWA, and definitely
the tropical moisture over the area, resulted in the very heavy
rainfall in Borden County, 3-4 inches per hour conservatively per
the Texas Tech Mesonet site 2 ESE of Gail.  The latest progs
indicate the remnant circulation will move southward through the
Texas Panhandle and impinge upon eastern portions of the forecast
area later today and tonight.  The MCV over the northern CWA does
not appear to be moving appreciably.  The latest KMAF radar trends
this afternoon indicated showers and thunderstorms developing over
the Permian Basin, and in and near the Davis and Glass Mountains,
and more convection developing around the MCV.  Think convection
will continue to develop through the afternoon, and tonight when a
low level jet (LLJ) increases.  Convection could become more
widespread, especially considering the modus operandi of this
tropical airmass/system has been for nocturnal convection to
flourish when interacting with the nocturnal LLJ.  Considering all
of the above, the saturated ground which continues to expand over
more of the forecast area, and the potential for more heavy rainfall
and flash flooding, will extend the Flash Flood Watch through
tonight and Sunday.

On Sunday, it appears we will begin to be the recipients of more
tropical moisture, this time from Tropical Storm Polo, which is off
the western Mexico coast this afternoon.  Despite being separated
from this cyclone by a weak upper level ridge, it appears some
moisture peels away from this system and moves north, then
northeastward around/under the ua ridge.  It is not clear whether
any mid level circulations will peel away from this system, but
think there is enough evidence to keep PoPs high, and the FFA going
through Sunday.  Also of concern Sunday is a weak frontal boundary
moving into the area, which will provide a low level focus for
shower and thunderstorm development.  Despite the surface ridge
gradually pushing into the area Sunday night and Monday,
precipitable water amounts remain around 1.5 inches.  So, the
potential exists for heavy rains to continue beyond Sunday.  It
looks like we could dry out somewhat Tuesday and Wednesday, but high
temperatures look to stay near or below normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

&&

80/67

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
243 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-211945-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
243 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014 /143 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
ANTICIPATED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IN MANY
AREAS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE...
DAVIS...AND APACHE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...VAN HORN AND THE HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR...REEVES COUNTY AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND PERMIAN
BASIN.  ABUNDANT RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO
RAISE CONCERNS FOR MORE FLASH FLOODING.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL..ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

ELEVATED FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TODAY AND TONIGHT
DUE TO RELEASES FROM RESERVOIRS IN MEXICO AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON BOTH
SIDES OF THE RIVER.  TRIBUTARIES AND ARROYOS TO THE PECOS
RIVER...SUCH AS THE RIO PENASCO...FOUR MILE DRAW...SOUTH SEVEN
RIVERS...ROCKY ARROYO...DARK CANYON...BLACK RIVER...DELAWARE
RIVER...AND WALNUT CANYON HAVE RECEDED A LITTLE BIT TODAY BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN THAT FALLS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN THOSE AREAS
WILL QUICKLY CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES...IF NOT FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT..THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.

THE RIO GRANDE...PECOS RIVER...AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES AND
ARROYOS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
354 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     FLOOD            20 SE GAIL              32.57N 101.21W
09/20/2014                   BORDEN             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HIGH WATER RESCUE ONGOING AT LAKE JB THOMAS BY THE SCURRY
            VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
708 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW MENTONE            31.70N 103.61W
09/20/2014                   LOVING             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER FLOWING 8 INCHES OVER STATE HIGHWAY 302

&&

JMC