Flash Flood Warning 97, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Yet again concern this forecast is the potential TSRA/MVFR CIGS/VSBY
in the near term and in the afternoon have kept TEMPO groups across
wrn sites where focus looks moreso today. Have kept TEMPO e and s too
but have tried use SHRA were appropriate. By 21Z there could be some
breaks in the BKN/OVC CIGS, but still with so much mstr available
SHRA/TSRA may form. Winds are less of an issue with mostly e-se
around 10kts expected.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
243 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-211945-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
243 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014 /143 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
ANTICIPATED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IN MANY
AREAS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE...
DAVIS...AND APACHE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...VAN HORN AND THE HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR...REEVES COUNTY AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND PERMIAN
BASIN.  ABUNDANT RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO
RAISE CONCERNS FOR MORE FLASH FLOODING.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL..ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

ELEVATED FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TODAY AND TONIGHT
DUE TO RELEASES FROM RESERVOIRS IN MEXICO AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON BOTH
SIDES OF THE RIVER.  TRIBUTARIES AND ARROYOS TO THE PECOS
RIVER...SUCH AS THE RIO PENASCO...FOUR MILE DRAW...SOUTH SEVEN
RIVERS...ROCKY ARROYO...DARK CANYON...BLACK RIVER...DELAWARE
RIVER...AND WALNUT CANYON HAVE RECEDED A LITTLE BIT TODAY BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN THAT FALLS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN THOSE AREAS
WILL QUICKLY CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES...IF NOT FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT..THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.

THE RIO GRANDE...PECOS RIVER...AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES AND
ARROYOS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
708 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW MENTONE            31.70N 103.61W
09/20/2014                   LOVING             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER FLOWING 8 INCHES OVER STATE HIGHWAY 302

&&

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     FLASH FLOOD      15 SE ANDREWS           32.17N 102.37W
09/20/2014                   ANDREWS            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER OVER STATE HIGHWAY 158. TRAFFIC DIVERTED

&&

JMC