Flash Flood Warning 111, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

777 
WGUS74 KMAF 212113
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
313 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NMC015-212145-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0111.000000T0000Z-140921T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EDDY-
313 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY...

AT 311 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO 
DETECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN EDDY 
COUNTY THAT MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ARTESIA
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...SEVEN RIVERS...LOCO HILLS...LAKEWOOD...
COTTONWOOD...DAYTON...ATOKA AND ARTESIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE... AND MANY OCCUR WHEN MOTORISTS
DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. IT IS NEVER SAFE TO DRIVE ON FLOODED
ROADS. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER TO QUICKLY
CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND... DONT DROWN.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE. TURN AROUND... DONT
DROWN.

FOR ROAD CONDITIONS IN NEW MEXICO...PLEASE CALL THE NEW MEXICO
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AT 1 800 432 4269...OR VISIT
HTTP://NMSHTD.STATE.NM.US/ROAD-INFO.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 10484 3297 10396 3265 10394 3267 10432
      3201 10470 3200 10485

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
152 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Though difficult to discern placement of the primary circulation
associated with the remnants of Odile, radar seemed to suggest a
location in central Eddy County. Though instability is limited,
precipitable water across a large part of the area remained above
1.5 inches resulting in the potential for very heavy rainfall
amounts. Though heavy rainfall in association with the circulation
has begun to wind down, heavy rain continues over the northern
Permian Basin with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
across much of the rest of southwest Texas.

Showers and thunderstorms across much of the area will decrease
this evening with loss of heating, though low level flow increases
becoming more easterly and upslope in the vicinity the mountain
areas. Though models have not been handling the remnants of Odile
well, should see circulation lift northwest as 700 mb high builds
into the area. Expecting to see increase in precipitation over
southeast New Mexico later in the evening as upslope low level
flow increases. May see scattered showers and thunderstorms later
tonight into Monday morning over the Permian Basin as a weak cold
front pushes into the area with additional thunderstorms possible
near the front in the afternoon, generally across the Permian
Basin. Expecting the heaviest rain, mostly in New Mexico, to wind
down by late morning.

Though the primary focus for heavy rain will be southeast New
Mexico, will keep areal coverage for the flash flood watch unchanged
as abundant moisture and wet soils combined with high rainfall
rates across most of the watch area could result in flash
flooding. Will extend flash flood watch through Monday morning to
match expected decrease in rain in southeast New Mexico.

Looking for potential scattered thunderstorms mostly eastern
Permian Basin Tuesday and Wednesday near weak upper trough and low
level moist axis. Scattered thunderstorms are possible beginning
in the mountains Thursday and spreading eastward by the weekend in
advance of upper trough approaching the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns will remain low through Tuesday as a moist
airmass remains over the area. Rain chances will stay high through
tonight. Afternoon relative humidities will remain above 30
percent through most of next week, while recovery will be
excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  78  63  80  /  50  40  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              67  81  64  82  /  30  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                64  77  64  81  /  80  60  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  69  86  68  85  /  30  20  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  84  64  85  /  50  40  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  71  59  77  /  70  70  30  10
HOBBS NM                   64  76  62  80  /  70  40  30  20
MARFA TX                   62  75  56  77  /  60  40  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  81  63  82  /  40  30  30  20
ODESSA TX                  66  81  64  82  /  40  30  30  20
WINK TX                    69  85  65  85  /  50  40  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

&&

67/05

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-220900-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014 /300 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE...DAVIS...AND APACHE MOUNTAINS...
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...VAN
HORN AND THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...REEVES COUNTY AND THE UPPER
TRANS PECOS...AND PERMIAN BASIN. ABUNDANT RAINFALL HAS ALREADY
FALLEN IN THESE AREAS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO RAISE CONCERNS FOR MORE FLASH
FLOODING.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL..ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

ELEVATED FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TODAY AND TONIGHT
DUE TO RELEASES FROM RESERVOIRS IN MEXICO AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON BOTH
SIDES OF THE RIVER.  TRIBUTARIES AND ARROYOS TO THE PECOS
RIVER...SUCH AS THE RIO PENASCO...FOUR MILE DRAW...SOUTH SEVEN
RIVERS...ROCKY ARROYO...DARK CANYON...BLACK RIVER...DELAWARE
RIVER...AND WALNUT CANYON HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN THAT FALLS IN THOSE AREAS WILL QUICKLY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
RISES...IF NOT FLOODING. ALSO LINGERING FLOODING IN BORDEN AND
SCURRY COUNTIES IS STILL A CONCERN WITH RECORD FLOW ON THE
COLORADO RIVER SOUTHEAST OF GAIL...DEEP CREEK IN SCURRY COUNTY...AND
NEAR IRA SOUTHWEST OF J.B. THOMAS. FINALLY FLOODING ALONG THE
PECOS RIVER FROM RED BLUFF TO PECOS/BARSTOW IS STILL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST AREAS MONDAY...SO FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS MAY LINGER.

THE RIO GRANDE...PECOS RIVER...AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES AND
ARROYOS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN
FLASH FLOODING OR RIVER FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
754 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S MIDLAND             31.99N 102.08W
09/21/2014                   MIDLAND            TX   PUBLIC

            ABOUT 1 FOOT OF WATER RUNNING OVER THE INTERSECTION OF
            BIG SPRING AND BUSINESS 20

&&

AKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
918 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     FLASH FLOOD      15 S ANDREWS            32.10N 102.55W
09/21/2014                   ANDREWS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF SE ROAD 8000 AND
            US HIGHWAY 385

0905 AM     FLASH FLOOD      15 SE ANDREWS           32.17N 102.37W
09/21/2014                   ANDREWS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER PORTIONS OF FARM TO MARKET 1788 BETWEEN 1 AND
            10 MILES SOUTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 176

&&

AKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     FLASH FLOOD      7 NE TARZAN             32.38N 101.90W
09/21/2014                   MARTIN             TX   PUBLIC

            TRUCK DRIVER REPORTED WATER SO HIGH ON STATE HIGHWAY 137
            JUST NORTH OF FARM TO MARKET 846 IN MARTIN COUNTY THAT HE
            WAS BARELY ABLE TO MAKE IT THROUGH

&&

AKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
122 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CARLSBAD                32.40N 104.24W
09/21/2014                   EDDY               NM   STORM CHASER

            REPORT OF ONGOING STREET FLOODING IN CARLSBAD. WATER IS
            FLOWING CURB TO CURB SIX INCHES TO ONE FOOT DEEP.

&&

MSCHULDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
127 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GAIL                    32.77N 101.45W
09/21/2014                   BORDEN             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MOST OF FARM TO MARKET ROADS ACROSS EASTERN BORDEN COUNTY
            HAVE FLOODING. FARM TO MARKET ROADS 1610, 1205 AND 669
            REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

AKL