Severe Thunderstorm Warning 360, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
837 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND
TRIMMED A FEW COUNTIES OFF THE WEST SIDE OF THE TORNADO WATCH.
SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. COLD FRONT IS STILL JUST
WEST OF ARKANSAS...BUT SHOULD ENTER WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND 05Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

AVIATION...03/00Z TAF CYCLE

LINE OF SVR STORMS ACRS WRN AR ATTM WL CONT TO TRACK EWD THRU
CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS EVENING. EXPECT OCNL MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH
THIS LINE ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AREA OF RAIN AND
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WL LINGER FOR A FEW HRS BEHIND THE INITIAL
SQUALL LINE...FOLLOWED BY A PD OF MVFR CIGS THRU EARLY FRI MRNG.
GUSTY NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE ASSOC CDFNT WL USHER MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
FRI. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE OKLAHOMA MESONET
INDICATES THE COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ARE
STARTING TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WHERE SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES EXCEED 3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES...AND
ORIENTATION OF FORCING CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LINEAR MCS DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 6-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
IN THE LONG TERM...UPPER FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THIS WILL SEND SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH RAIN CHANCES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND
AFFECTING THE REGION BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     59  73  44  68 /  90  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         62  78  48  73 /  90  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       53  66  40  65 /  90  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  74  45  71 /  90  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  76  46  71 /  90  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     64  79  49  73 /  70  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      56  73  44  70 /  90  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  55  69  41  66 /  90  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        61  74  45  68 /  90  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     63  77  48  73 /  80  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   57  74  44  70 /  90  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         61  75  46  70 /  90  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      63  76  47  71 /  80  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
345 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE.

ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND HAIL OF ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER. AT THIS TIME...THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD QUICKLY PICK
UP TWO INCHES BEFORE THE STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW STORMS MAY STILL BE IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE VERY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THEY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE SEEN ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON MAY BE SEEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S ARE IN THE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

226/57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
825 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW WHITE HALL         34.31N 92.14W
10/02/2014                   JEFFERSON          AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN ON INTERSTATE 530...BLOCKING THE SOUTHBOUND
            LANES.

&&

224

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
828 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BISMARCK                34.32N 93.17W
10/02/2014                   HOT SPRING         AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO BARNS ARE DAMAGED ON CREEK TRAIL.

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MALVERN                 34.36N 92.81W
10/02/2014                   HOT SPRING         AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THERE IS A TREE ON A HOUSE WITH OCCUPANTS INSIDE IN THE
            OVERTON AREA OF MALVERN.

&&

224

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
835 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W BONNERDALE          34.38N 93.43W
10/02/2014                   MONTGOMERY         AR   PUBLIC

            POWER LINES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 70.

0702 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BONNERDALE              34.38N 93.38W
10/02/2014                   HOT SPRING         AR   PUBLIC

            POWER LINES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 70.

&&

224

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>