Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 348, NWS Little Rock, AR

October 2, 2014Baxter County, Marion County, Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 2, 2014, 7:03 PM CDT for Baxter County, Marion County, Arkansas. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Oct 2, 2014, 7:03 PM CDT (00:03 UTC)
Expired: Oct 2, 2014, 7:30 PM CDT
In force: 27 min
Issued by: NWS Little Rock, AR
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Baxter County, AR, Marion County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 2, 12:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1444 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -85 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -54 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 2, 7:03 PM CDT, 0 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 2, 7:03 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
703 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.AVIATION...03/00Z TAF CYCLE

LINE OF SVR STORMS ACRS WRN AR ATTM WL CONT TO TRACK EWD THRU
CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS EVENING. EXPECT OCNL MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH
THIS LINE ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AREA OF RAIN AND
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WL LINGER FOR A FEW HRS BEHIND THE INITIAL
SQUALL LINE...FOLLOWED BY A PD OF MVFR CIGS THRU EARLY FRI MRNG.
GUSTY NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE ASSOC CDFNT WL USHER MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
FRI. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE OKLAHOMA MESONET
INDICATES THE COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ARE
STARTING TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WHERE SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES EXCEED 3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES...AND
ORIENTATION OF FORCING CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LINEAR MCS DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 6-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
IN THE LONG TERM...UPPER FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THIS WILL SEND SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH RAIN CHANCES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND
AFFECTING THE REGION BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 2, 3:45 PM CDT, 3 hours 18 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
345 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE.

ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND HAIL OF ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER. AT THIS TIME...THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD QUICKLY PICK
UP TWO INCHES BEFORE THE STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW STORMS MAY STILL BE IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE VERY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THEY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE SEEN ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON MAY BE SEEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S ARE IN THE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

226/57

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 2, 3:12 PM CDT, 3 hours 51 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Oct 2, 3:26 PM CDT, 3 hours 37 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Oct 2, 4:22 PM CDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before

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Local storm report, Oct 2, 5:50 PM CDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before

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Local storm report, Oct 2, 6:06 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

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Local storm report, Oct 2, 6:57 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 2, 7:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Baxter, Cleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Fulton, Izard and 5 more	60 min
Oct 2, 7:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Clark, Conway, Dallas, Faulkner, Garland, Grant and 5 more	54 min
Oct 2, 7:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Calhoun, Clark, Dallas, Ouachita	63 min
Oct 2, 7:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Fulton	30 min
Oct 2, 7:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Cleburne, Faulkner, Independence, Izard, Stone, White	37 min
Oct 2, 7:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Dallas, Grant and 5 more	48 min
Oct 2, 7:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Faulkner, Lonoke, Prairie, Pulaski, White	47 min
Oct 2, 8:00 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Pulaski, Saline	30 min
Oct 2, 8:05 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Grant, Jefferson	25 min
Oct 2, 8:11 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Lonoke, Pulaski	17 min
Oct 2, 8:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Independence, Jackson, White, Woodruff	55 min
Oct 2, 8:23 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Arkansas, Lonoke, Prairie, Pulaski	37 min
Oct 2, 8:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Arkansas, Cleveland, Dallas, Desha, Drew, Jefferson and 4 more	49 min
Oct 2, 8:29 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Arkansas, Jefferson	31 min
Oct 2, 8:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Bradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Drew	51 min
Oct 2, 8:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Lonoke, Monroe, Prairie, White, Woodruff	56 min
Oct 2, 8:57 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Arkansas, Monroe	33 min
Oct 2, 8:57 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Monroe, Prairie	33 min
Oct 2, 9:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Arkansas, Desha, Drew, Jefferson, Lincoln, Monroe and 1 more	44 min
Oct 2, 9:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Desha, Drew	51 min
Oct 2, 9:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Arkansas, Desha	15 min
Oct 3, 4:47 AM CDT	Lake Wind Advisory	LZK	Arkansas, Baxter, Cleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Fulton and 15 more	10 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2014 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.