Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
656 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Rather messy ongoing convection will lead to a lower confidence
forecast thru this period. As mentioned in the prev AFD, expect
ongoing MCS to continue ewd thru sunrise and shud be on the ern
fringes of the CWA by 15z. This shud allow for some dry time
during peak heating to allow the wrmfnt to lift nwd. Of course,
this meteorologist had a similar outlook for yesterday, which did
not turn out so well.

Largest question involves timing of convection initiation this
afternoon/evening. Mid level jet streak ahead of the main trof
currently in TX is progd to reach AR/srn MO around mid-day. Many
mdl solns suggest this shud help initialize convection this
afternoon and spread it newd into srn portions of the CWA. Have
kept high chance POPs this afternoon to account for this, but
believe focus will be along the cdfnt just w of the CWA. Expect
TSRA to develop w of the CWA and move into the area late this
afternoon and thru the evening hours. Storms shud be over far ern
counties around 06z tonight and quickly move out of the CWA by
09z.

Not much has changed in thinking for storm mode, so will not go
into great detail. Initial storm mode shud be supercells which
gradually grow upscale into a QLCS. Given progd hodographs, amount
of deep layer shear, not to mention low level shear, significant
severe weather is possible this afternoon and thru at least the
evening hours. The main area of concern is the srn half of the
CWA. Further north, with rather steep lapse rates and ample shear,
still expect a threat of severe wx, but expect threat to be
focused more toward large hail.

Mdls also depict K index values in the middle to upper 30 C range,
suggesting more of a heavy rain threat as well. Do not anticipate
any changes to the going FFA, but trends will need to be
monitored.

As for temps, with the trof approaching the region today, expect
the lee cyclogenesis and the wrmfnt to push nwd this afternoon.
Have therefore trended warmer today. Trended twd the cooler MOS
tonight as the sfc ridge builds into the region.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Large sfc ridge will move into the area behind today's system
bringing a brief period of dry and colder weather. Expect
strong/gusty wly winds on Fri.

Next focus for precip is Sun night as a system passes just se of
the CWA. Mdls have come into better agreement with development and
track of this system. Have therefore increases POPs into the
likely range for sern portions of the CWA. Mdls also suggest
precip over portions of the area as another s/w moves swd thru the
region. Expect mainly sct coverage and have kept lower chance POPs
for these showers.

Generally trended twd a mdl consensus for temps thru the period.
Only main change was to trend a little cooler on Fri night due to
a loss of cloud cover and winds becoming light.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

MCS continues to roll E-NE this morning. Outflow has produced a
W-E band of convection roughly centered on a KVIH-KSAR line which
should continue to propagate E-SE with the outflow boundary over
the next few hours, gradually pushing thunderstorm threat south of
STL metro. Meanwhile, additional elevated storms over western MO
will be lifting northeast over the next few hours, brushing KCOU
area while heading into KUIN. Expect most thunderstorm activity
affecting TAF sites to end in the 14-16z time frame, and then AMS
will begin to reset for another round of strong to possibly severe
convection this evening. Will fine-tune this threat in later
issuances.

Specifics for KSTL: Over the next several hours KSTL TAF will be
on the n fringes of the convection associated with the southward
sagging outflow boundary. Threat of thunderstorms should be ending
no later than mid morning, and there should then be several hours
of tranquil/VFR conditions while AMS begins to recover and
destabilize, setting the stage for another round of intense
convection this evening.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-
     Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-St.
     Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR Bond IL-Calhoun IL-
     Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
     Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-St.
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
340 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-041200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
340 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION
OF THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...RAINFALL
OR FLOODING REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
850 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FREEDOM                 38.46N  91.69W
04/03/2014  M3.80 INCH       OSAGE              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
850 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

MOZ041-031430-
BOONE MO-
850 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BOONE COUNTY UNTIL 930 AM
CDT...

AT 848 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROCHEPORT...OR 8 MILES EAST OF BOONVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  COLUMBIA...
  MIDWAY...
  HALLSVILLE...
  MURRY...

THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT FINGER LAKES STATE PARK AND JEWELL
CEMETERY HISTORIC SITE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
851 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CENTRALIA               39.21N  92.13W
04/03/2014  M2.31 INCH       BOONE              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
852 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CALIFORNIA              38.63N  92.57W
04/03/2014  M2.92 INCH       MONITEAU           MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
855 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WASHINGTON              38.55N  91.01W
04/03/2014  M2.43 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MILLER

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