Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS St. Louis, MO

506 
WWUS53 KLSX 031843
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
143 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

MOC071-183-189-031915-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-140403T1915Z/
FRANKLIN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
143 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL
ST. LOUIS...SOUTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 141 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DEFIANCE...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AT 
         VILLA RIDGE AT 130 PM CDT. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE
         TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILDWOOD...CLARKSON VALLEY...DARDENNE PRAIRIE...CHESTERFIELD AND
DEFIANCE.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BABLER MEMORIAL STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST
LOUIS.

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND TORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...SUCH AS IN AN
INTERIOR ROOM...A BATHROOM OR CLOSET...OR BASEMENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3878 9074 3863 9054 3848 9086 3855 9095
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 228DEG 32KT 3860 9078

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

TES

063 
WWUS53 KLSX 031910
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
210 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

MOC071-183-189-031921-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-140403T1915Z/
FRANKLIN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
210 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL ST. LOUIS...
SOUTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 215 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN ST LOUIS.

LAT...LON 3878 9074 3863 9054 3848 9086 3855 9095
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 228DEG 32KT 3877 9053

$$

TES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
123 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Will be expanding FFA another row of counties south, as this area
had some fairly heavy rains during the early morning hours.
Current activity should continue to roll east and expect some
lessening of areal coverage as they push east of the Mississippi.
Some of the latest meso-scale models are indicating storms
currently over SW MO and NW AR developing into SW portions of our
CWA early this afternoon, and in advance of what should be
additional storms along the cold front late this afternoon into
the evening. Have adjusted PoP trends with this thinking. Update
out ASAP.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Rather messy ongoing convection will lead to a lower confidence
forecast thru this period. As mentioned in the prev AFD, expect
ongoing MCS to continue ewd thru sunrise and shud be on the ern
fringes of the CWA by 15z. This shud allow for some dry time
during peak heating to allow the wrmfnt to lift nwd. Of course,
this meteorologist had a similar outlook for yesterday, which did
not turn out so well.

Largest question involves timing of convection initiation this
afternoon/evening. Mid level jet streak ahead of the main trof
currently in TX is progd to reach AR/srn MO around mid-day. Many
mdl solns suggest this shud help initialize convection this
afternoon and spread it newd into srn portions of the CWA. Have
kept high chance POPs this afternoon to account for this, but
believe focus will be along the cdfnt just w of the CWA. Expect
TSRA to develop w of the CWA and move into the area late this
afternoon and thru the evening hours. Storms shud be over far ern
counties around 06z tonight and quickly move out of the CWA by
09z.

Not much has changed in thinking for storm mode, so will not go
into great detail. Initial storm mode shud be supercells which
gradually grow upscale into a QLCS. Given progd hodographs, amount
of deep layer shear, not to mention low level shear, significant
severe weather is possible this afternoon and thru at least the
evening hours. The main area of concern is the srn half of the
CWA. Further north, with rather steep lapse rates and ample shear,
still expect a threat of severe wx, but expect threat to be
focused more toward large hail.

Mdls also depict K index values in the middle to upper 30 C range,
suggesting more of a heavy rain threat as well. Do not anticipate
any changes to the going FFA, but trends will need to be
monitored.

As for temps, with the trof approaching the region today, expect
the lee cyclogenesis and the wrmfnt to push nwd this afternoon.
Have therefore trended warmer today. Trended twd the cooler MOS
tonight as the sfc ridge builds into the region.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Large sfc ridge will move into the area behind today's system
bringing a brief period of dry and colder weather. Expect
strong/gusty wly winds on Fri.

Next focus for precip is Sun night as a system passes just se of
the CWA. Mdls have come into better agreement with development and
track of this system. Have therefore increases POPs into the
likely range for sern portions of the CWA. Mdls also suggest
precip over portions of the area as another s/w moves swd thru the
region. Expect mainly sct coverage and have kept lower chance POPs
for these showers.

Generally trended twd a mdl consensus for temps thru the period.
Only main change was to trend a little cooler on Fri night due to
a loss of cloud cover and winds becoming light.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Active and growing convection along w-e outflow boundary from
Ozarks to s sections of STL metro should be lifting north
throughout the afternoon, with at least MVFR and more likely occasional
IFR conditions in more robust convection. Still expecting yet
another round of convection along and advance of the cold front
sweeps across the region late this afternoon and this evening. here
is an extensive area of IFR cigs in the wake of the cold front
over KS, and while these cigs should lift a bit during the
afternoon think MVFR cigs will overspread the area from west to
east in the wake of the front.

Specifics for KSTL: W-E band of convection is expected to lift
north across the area by mid afternoon, with at least IFR vsbys
due to torrential downpours in stronger cells. This area should
lift north of the area by late afternoon, with another round of
strong/intense convection ahead of the cold front this evening.
MVFR cigs will settle into the area with fropa around midnight, with
these cigs persisting into late Friday morning.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
     Pike MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-
     St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR Bond IL-Calhoun IL-
     Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
     Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-
     Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
340 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-041200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
340 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION
OF THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...RAINFALL
OR FLOODING REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1157 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HARVESTER               38.75N  90.58W
04/03/2014  M2.72 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1158 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE GRIGGSVILLE       39.73N  90.71W
04/03/2014  M2.44 INCH       PIKE               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1209 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 PM     HAIL             ARNOLD                  38.43N  90.37W
04/03/2014  E0.88 INCH       JEFFERSON          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1230 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 PM     HAIL             WATERLOO                38.33N  90.16W
04/03/2014  E0.70 INCH       MONROE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1244 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     HAIL             SULLIVAN                38.22N  91.17W
04/03/2014  M0.25 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1251 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     HAIL             ST. CLAIR               38.35N  90.98W
04/03/2014  E0.25 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GOSSELIN