Alert archive / Illinois / River Flood Warnings in 2014
River Flood Warning 12, NWS St. Louis, MO
NWS St. Louis, MO issued this river flood warning at Apr 2, 2014, 8:30 PM CDT for Fayette County, Illinois. It took effect at Apr 3, 2014, 5:48 PM CDT. It was in force for 4 days.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 2, 2014, 8:30 PM CDT (01:30 UTC)
- In effect from
- Apr 3, 2014, 5:48 PM CDT
- Expired
- Apr 7, 2014, 11:51 AM CDT
- In force
- 4 days
- Issued by
- NWS St. Louis, MO
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Fayette County, IL
The radar
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Kaskaskia River at Vandalia (VNDI2). The gauge peaked at 19.41 ft at Apr 4, 2014, 9:00 PM CDT.
- Action stage
- 16 ft
- Minor stage
- 18 ft
- Moderate stage
- 24 ft
- Major stage
- 26 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05592500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
305
WGUS43 KLSX 030130
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
830 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
...The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a flood
warning for the following rivers in Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia affecting Fayette County
.This Flood Warning is a result of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall the
past 24 hours and 1 to 2 inches forecast in the next 24 hours...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than
predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts
change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-040130-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0012.140403T2248Z-140407T1651Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.140403T2248Z.140405T1200Z.140406T1651Z.NO/
830 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* from Thursday afternoon to Monday morning.
* At 8:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 7.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by Thursday
afternoon and crest near 22.5 feet by Saturday morning. The river
will fall below flood stage late by Sunday morning.
* Impact: At 18.0 feet...Flood Stage. Minor flooding begins.
Unprotected farmland begins to flood.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 04/03 04/04 04/05 04/06 04/07
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 7.52 13.4 21.1 22.5 19.7 11.7
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$8 follow-up statements
974
WGUS83 KLSX 031518
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1018 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
...The flood warning continues for the following river in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia affecting Fayette County
.This Flood Warning is a result of 1-2 inches of rainfall the
past 24 hours and around an inch of additional rainfall forecast in the
next 24 hours...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than
predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts
change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-041518-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0012.140404T0700Z-140407T0640Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.140404T0700Z.140405T0000Z.140406T0640Z.NO/
1018 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
The Flood Warning continues for
the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* From late tonight to late Sunday night.
* At 10:00 AM Thursday the stage was 13.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight
tomorrow and crest near 19.7 feet Friday evening. Additional rises are
possible.
* Impact: At 19.2 feet...State Highway J just east of County Road 206
begins to flood near this height.
* Impact: At 18.0 feet...Flood Stage. Minor flooding begins.
Unprotected farmland begins to flood.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 04/04 04/05 04/06 04/07 04/08
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 13.81 19.0 19.2 17.2 12.0 9.4
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$210
WGUS83 KLSX 040044
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
744 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
...The flood warning continues for the following river in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia affecting Fayette County
.This Flood Warning is a result of 2 to 3 inches of precipitation the
past 24 hours and up to around 1 inch possible in the next 24 hours...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than
predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts
change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-050044-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0012.140404T0631Z-140408T0117Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.140404T0631Z.140405T0000Z.140407T0117Z.NO/
744 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
The Flood Warning continues for
the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* from late tonight to Monday evening.
* At 7:30 PM Thursday the stage was 15.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river will rise above flood stage by after midnight
tonight and continue to rise to near 22.0 feet by Friday
evening. The river will fall below flood stage by Sunday evening.
* Impact: At 19.2 feet...State Highway J just east of County Road 206
begins to flood near this height.
* Impact: At 18.0 feet...Flood Stage. Minor flooding begins.
Unprotected farmland begins to flood.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 04/04 04/05 04/06 04/07 04/08
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 15.35 20.1 21.6 19.9 15.3 11.6
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$393
WGUS83 KLSX 041511
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1011 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
...The flood warning continues for the following river in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at
Vandalia
Carlyle Tailwater
.This Flood Warning is a result of heavy rainfall across the basin over
the past 72 hours...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts
change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-051511-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140408T0345Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.140404T1018Z.140405T1800Z.140407T0345Z.NO/
1011 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
The Flood Warning continues for
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* Until Monday evening.
* At 9:30 AM Friday the stage was 18.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to crest near 21.8 feet early Saturday
afternoon. .
* Impact: At 19.2 feet...State Highway J just east of County Road 206
begins to flood near this height.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 04/05 04/06 04/07 04/08 04/09
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 18.63 21.7 20.7 15.6 11.3 9.2
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
ILC027-051510-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.140405T1047Z.140406T1200Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1011 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
The Flood Warning continues for
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle Tailwater
* Until further notice.
* At 9:30 AM Friday the stage was 420.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to rise above flood stage early Saturday
afternoon and crest near 425.0 feet by Sunday morning.
* Impact: At 424.5 feet...Some cabins just below the dam are
inundated.
* Impact: At 423.5 feet...FLOOD STAGE. Rural damage begins.
Township roads in Covington become inundated.
* Impact: At 421.0 feet...Left bank in vicinity of the gage overflows
with minor flooding of park lands.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 04/05 04/06 04/07 04/08 04/09
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle TW 423.5 420.92 423.6 425.0 425.0 425.0 425.0
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$946
WGUS83 KLSX 050220
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
920 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River
at Vandalia
at Carlyle
.This Flood Warning is a result of heavy rainfall over the basin
the past 72 hours...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts
change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-060220-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140407T1800Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.140404T1018Z.140405T1200Z.140406T1800Z.NO/
920 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
The Flood Warning continues for
the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* until Monday afternoon.
* At 8:30 PM Friday the stage was 19.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to crest near 19.8 feet on
Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood stage by
early Sunday afternoon.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 04/05 04/06 04/07 04/08 04/09
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 19.43 19.8 18.5 15.1 11.1 9.2
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
ILC027-060219-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-140412T1200Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.140405T0712Z.140406T1800Z.140411T1200Z.UU/
920 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
The Flood Warning continues for
the Kaskaskia River at Carlyle Tailwater
* until Saturday April 12th.
* At 8:30 PM Friday the stage was 423.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to rise above flood stage early
on Saturday morning and rise to near 425.0 feet on Sunday morning.
* Impact: At 424.5 feet...Some cabins just below the dam are
inundated.
* Impact: At 423.5 feet...FLOOD STAGE. Rural damage begins.
Township roads in Covington become inundated.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 04/05 04/06 04/07 04/08 04/09
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle TW 423.5 422.97 423.9 424.9 425.0 425.0 425.0
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$603
WGUS83 KLSX 051519
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1019 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
...The flood warning continues for the following river in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at
Vandalia
Carlyle Tailwater
.This Flood Warning is a result of heavy rainfall over the basin
this past week as well as releases from Carlyle Lake affecting Carlyle
Tailwater...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts
change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-061519-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140407T1300Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.140404T1018Z.140405T0415Z.140406T1300Z.NO/
1019 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
The Flood Warning continues for
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* Until Sunday morning.
* At 10:00 AM Saturday the stage was 19.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river crested near 19.5 feet late last evening and is
forecast to fall back below flood stage Sunday morning.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 04/06 04/07 04/08 04/09 04/10
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 19.27 18.1 14.4 10.8 9.3 8.5
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
ILC027-061518-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-140412T1200Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.140405T1145Z.140406T1200Z.140411T1200Z.UU/
1019 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
The Flood Warning continues for
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle Tailwater
* Until Friday April 11.
* At 10:00 AM Saturday the stage was 423.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to rise to near 424.8 feet Sunday
morning and remain near that level through Wednesday morning.
* Impact: At 424.5 feet...Some cabins just below the dam are
inundated.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 04/06 04/07 04/08 04/09 04/10
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle TW 423.5 423.72 424.8 424.8 424.8 424.8 424.4
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$969
WGUS83 KLSX 060210
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
910 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River
at Vandalia
at Carlyle Tailwater
.This Flood Warning is a result of heavy rainfall over the basin
this past week as well as releases from Carlyle Lake affecting Carlyle
Tailwater...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts
change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-070210-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140407T1640Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.140404T1018Z.140406T0030Z.140406T1640Z.NO/
910 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
The Flood Warning continues for
the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* until Monday morning.
* At 8:30 PM Saturday the stage was 19.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to fall to below flood stage by
late Sunday morning.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 04/06 04/07 04/08 04/09 04/10
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 19.43 18.7 13.6 10.2 8.9 8.3
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
ILC027-070209-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-140412T1200Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.140405T1145Z.140407T1200Z.140411T1200Z.UU/
910 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
The Flood Warning continues for
the Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW
* until Saturday April 12.
* At 8:30 PM Saturday the stage was 424.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 425.0 feet by Sunday
morning. The river will fall below flood stage Friday morning.
* Impact: At 424.5 feet...Some cabins just below the dam are
inundated.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 04/06 04/07 04/08 04/09 04/10
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle TW 423.5 424.53 425.0 425.1 425.0 425.0 424.4
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$646
WGUS83 KLSX 061628
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1128 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
...The flood warning continues for the following river in Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at
Vandalia
Carlyle Lake TW
.This Flood Warning is a result of 3 to 6 inches of precipitation
last week and 0.5 to 0.75 inches forecast in the next 24 hours...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The National Weather Service will continue to monitor this situation
and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-071628-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140407T1800Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.140404T1018Z.140406T0030Z.140406T1800Z.NO/
1128 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
The Flood Warning continues for
the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* until this afternoon.
* At 11 AM Sunday the stage was 18.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to fall below flood stage this
afternoon.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 04/07 04/08 04/09 04/10 04/11
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 18.38 14.6 10.8 8.8 8.4 7.2
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
ILC027-071627-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-140412T2100Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.140405T1145Z.140406T1600Z.140411T2100Z.UU/
1128 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
The Flood Warning continues for
the Kaskaskia River at Carlyle Lake TW
* until Saturday.
* At 11 AM Sunday the stage was 424.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to remain just below 425 feet
through Wednesday and then is expected to fall below flood stage
Friday night.
* Impact: At 424.5 feet...Some cabins just below the dam are
inundated.
* Impact: At 423.5 feet...FLOOD STAGE. Rural damage begins.
Township roads in Covington become inundated.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 04/07 04/08 04/09 04/10 04/11
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle TW 423.5 424.77 424.7 424.6 424.5 424.3 423.7
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$035
WGUS83 KLSX 061954
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
254 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River
at Vandalia
.This will be the last statement for this event...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-062024-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140407T1800Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.140404T1018Z.140406T0030Z.140406T1736Z.NO/
254 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
* At 2:30 PM Sunday the stage was 17.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 12:36 PM Sunday.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to continue to fall to 14.6 feet
by Monday morning.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 04/07 04/08 04/09 04/10 04/11
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 17.46 14.6 10.8 8.8 8.4 7.2
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Apr 2, 7:07 PM CDT, 1 hour 23 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 2, 7:07 PM CDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
707 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014
ARW core WRF models seem to have the best handle on what is
happening now and instilling the best confidence on what will happen
into tonight. With that in mind, we are expecting the last of
today's convection to exit the southwest IL parts of the CWA by
22z. Rainfall that has occurred has been hefty, on the order of
what we have not seen in quite some time, with the heaviest amounts
within about 50 miles on either side of the Interstate 70 corridor:
from 1.5" to 2.25" for most locations. Needless to say, the
persistent rain has kept the warm front draped across southern MO
and far southern IL at a virtual standstill with temps very slow to
rise for our region.
The ARW core WRF models ignite a new round of TSRA late this evening
in central and northeast MO and then develops, matures, and then
advects what will probably become a new MCS thru the lion's share of
the CWA overnight. Somewhat more instability will be available with
somewhat less bulk shear, but still sufficient, to support severe
potential to TSRA that develop. A widespread one to two inches is
expected for much of the CWA, and when further compounded on what
has fallen and what is expected to fall thru Thursday night, basin
average rainfall amounts of 4-5" will be commonplace. A FFA has
been issued for a generous slice of the CWA that tracks along where
the heaviest rainfall has occurred today and last night.
Temps should remain near steady tonight or slowly rise, depending on
where you are in relation to the warm front, with lo 60s expected
for areas south of I-70 and 50s to the north.
Spriggs
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014
Ongoing precip from overnight convection assoc with WAA and the LLJ
will work to the NE thru the morning and should exit the CWA by
midday. This should allow for plenty of time for the atmosphere to
destabilize. Models indicate a strong trough moving into the region
during the day and becoming negatively tilted by evening. This is
expected to be the trigger for a significant svr wx event Thu
evng. The trough will provide strong forcing and mid level cooling
which is expected to produce lapse rates in excess of 7 C/km. A
warm moist bndry layer with temps in the 70s and Dps in the lower
60s will generate SBCAPE values of 1000-2500 J/kg from N-S. Shear
vectors approaching 40 kts and and at a favorable angle...convective
mode early on should be discreet supercells which should eventually
transition into a squall line. 0-1 SRH values of 200-300 m2/s2
should be sufficient for the threat of tornadoes...with this
threat continuing into the overnight hrs with the QLCS. All forms
of svr wx will be possible with this event. Storms should initiate
ahead of the cold front across wrn AR/MO either late in the aftn
or very early evng and should move into the FA around 6PM. The
line of storms should exit our ern zones around midnight or
shortly thereafter. The SFC low is fcst to move from ern KS on18Z
Thu to cntrl Lake MI by 18Z Fri.
Colder air filters in for the remainder of the night with a stiff
west wind that will continue thru Friday. SFC high passes overhead
Saturday morning providing ideal radiational cooling conditions. Low
temps Sat mrng are expected to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Quiet seasonable weather is fcst for the wknd.
Another system is scheduled to impact the region early next
week...but placement and timing issues keep POPs in the low chance
category attm. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonal next
week as well.
2%
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014
A complex forecast this period for area TAF sites thanks to
multiple rounds of SHRA/TSRA expected within the next 24 hours.
Convective intiation has already begun over far southeast Kansas,
and this activity is expected to increase in coverage and grow
upscale aided by a strengthening southwesterly LLJ this evening.
Expect this next round of thunderstorms to affect KCOU and KUIN
between 06-07Z tonight, and metro area TAF sites by around 08Z. A
warm front currently located well south of area TAF sites will
continue to march northward overnight, acting as a second focus
for convection, allowing for several hours of SHRA/TSRA activity
affecting metro area terminals from the late overnight through
early morning hours. Hail is possible tonight affecting area TAF
sites, especially with the stronger storms.
IFR/low MVFR ceilings continue to plague area TAF sites this evening,
and though metro area sites are on the cusp of IFR/MVFR, do not
expect much improvement for KSTL...KSUS...KCPS...or KCOU...until
the warm front moves north of I-70 Thursday morning. After
convection finally moves east of the area Thursday morning, expect
a lull and improvement to MVFR flight conditions with winds
shifting to the south and becoming gusty Thursday afternoon prior
to the next round of SHRA/TSRA taking shape near the end of the
valid TAF period.
Specifics for KSTL:
A complex forecast for KSTL through the next 30 hours.
Thunderstorms over southeast Kansas will continue to develop and
grow upscale over the next several hours aided by a strengthening
southwesterly LLJ, while at the same time, a warm front will
continue its northward push toward the metro area. Expect
SHRA/TSRA activity to impact KSTL by around 08Z, with little in
the way of relief until Thursday morning once the storms move east
of the terminal. Cigs until Thursday morning are expected largely
to remain IFR until Thursday morning, when an improvement to
MVFR is anticipated in the wake of overnight SHRA/TSRA activity
and as the warm front finally lifts north of the terminal. Winds
on Thursday afternoon could become gusty as well, ahead of the
next round of SHRA/TSRA which is expected to impact KSTL Thursday
evening, prior to a cold front passage at the end of the period.
JP
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Thursday night FOR Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
Pike MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-
Warren MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Thursday night FOR Bond IL-
Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
WFO LSXHazardous weather outlook, Apr 2, 3:51 PM CDT, 4 hours 39 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 351 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031115- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO- LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO- AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO- LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO- ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO- WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO- MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO- 351 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING MAY BE SEVERE. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...RAINFALL OR FLOODING REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. 2%
In the hours before
Local storm report, Apr 2, 3:32 PM CDT, 4 hours 58 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
332 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0320 PM HEAVY RAIN O'FALLON 38.78N 90.71W
04/02/2014 M2.37 INCH ST. CHARLES MO TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CITY
&&
BRITTLocal storm report, Apr 2, 3:34 PM CDT, 4 hours 56 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
334 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0333 PM HEAVY RAIN ST. LOUIS 38.64N 90.24W
04/02/2014 M1.21 INCH ST. LOUIS CITY MO TRAINED SPOTTER
1.21 INCHES OF RAIN AT WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY BETWEEN
1000 AM AND 330 PM.
&&
CARNEYLocal storm report, Apr 2, 4:52 PM CDT, 3 hours 38 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
452 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0451 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 N BREESE 38.65N 89.52W
04/02/2014 M1.10 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
BRITTLocal storm report, Apr 2, 5:21 PM CDT, 3 hours 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
521 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0356 PM HEAVY RAIN ST. ANN 38.73N 90.39W
04/02/2014 M4.31 INCH ST. LOUIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
BRITTLocal storm report, Apr 2, 5:23 PM CDT, 3 hours 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
523 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0447 PM HEAVY RAIN EDWARDSVILLE 38.80N 89.97W
04/02/2014 M4.02 INCH MADISON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
BRITTLocal storm report, Apr 2, 7:22 PM CDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
722 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0719 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 S MEDORA 39.16N 90.14W
04/02/2014 M1.98 INCH MACOUPIN IL TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL SINCE NOON WAS 0.22...STORM TOTAL 1.98
&&
GKSThe office that day
Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 5:19 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LSX | Madison, Saint Clair | 56 min |
| Apr 3, 5:23 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | LSX | Madison, Saint Clair | 37 min |
| Apr 3, 6:01 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | LSX | Clinton, Saint Clair | 29 min |
| Apr 3, 6:23 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | LSX | Clinton | 37 min |
| Apr 3, 12:03 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LSX | Monroe, Saint Clair | 42 min |
| Apr 3, 3:16 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LSX | Monroe, Saint Clair, Washington | 7 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2014Every river flood warning in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.