Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Jackson, KY

970 
WWUS53 KJKL 080044
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
844 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

KYC011-063-115-153-165-173-175-080054-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-141008T0045Z/
JOHNSON KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-BATH KY-
ELLIOTT KY-
844 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ELLIOTT...
SOUTHERN BATH...MORGAN...MONTGOMERY...MENIFEE...NORTHERN MAGOFFIN AND
NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.  HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

LAT...LON 3807 8348 3805 8350 3803 8346 3806 8337
      3802 8301 3798 8302 3797 8299 3800 8295
      3797 8283 3774 8300 3783 8344 3786 8349
      3785 8352 3789 8375 3792 8376 3790 8380
      3794 8398 3813 8407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 284DEG 39KT 3784 8274

$$

PELTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
435 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND THE TORNADO WATCH A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
SOUTH. THIS WAS MAINLY TO DEAL WITH THE DEVELOPING LINEAR CELLS JUST
OUTSIDE OF ROCKCASTLE COUNTY. THE WCN HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG WITH
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES. HWO TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION...HAS RESULTED IN A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND THEIR SEVERE WEATHER ATTRIBUTES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ON
RADAR...A VERY STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS NOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE WATCH AREA TOWARD EAST KENTUCKY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
JKL CWA BETWEEN 4:30 AND 6 PM...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS
INITIAL BATCH OF STORMS PASS. A CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS IS BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LARGE AND DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE MIDWEST AND ITS ATTENDANT ENERGY PACKET
RACING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR DECENT HEIGHT
RISES IN ITS WAKE. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A VIRTUAL MATCH WITH THEIR
FLATTENING OF THE PATTERN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATER THAT NIGHT
AN OPENING TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER/S REGION WILL SEND MORE ENERGY
THIS WAY IN THE FAST FLOW LEADING RIGHT INTO KENTUCKY. FOR THE MOST
PART...USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND
NAM12 FOR THE NEAR TERM.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A STORMY EVENING FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF BY LATE EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP. FOR WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US ONE SOLID DAY OF DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT THAT PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT WILL START TO COME BACK AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY DAWN IN BOTH THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA AND ALSO ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.

USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP MORE SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE BROAD
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST. MEANWHILE DURING THIS TIME...A RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW BEING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM SIMON MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. BY THE WEEKEND...A STRONG JET STREAK DIVES OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE SEEM TO
COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL AS THE SUPER BLEND
MODEL...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SUPER BLEND GAVE A
CONSENSUS OF LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO KEPT THIS SOLUTION
IN THE FORECAST.

FOR DETAILS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN EXITING FRONT BECOMES STALLED
AND ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE TN VALLEY AND INTO KY DURING THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS SETS UP A SCENARIO WHERE NUMEROUS WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PROVIDING RAIN CHANCES EVERYDAY DURING THE EXTENDED. THIS
BEING A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN OCCURRING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
VEGETATION ON THE DECLINE COULD MAKE FOR A CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
THE EXTENDED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON...THE INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE JET FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE INGREDIENTS
MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS EVENT. A FEW DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MODELS HANDLING A TRANSITION IN THE
PATTERN BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. HAVE TIMED THE STORMS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BY 23/00Z. WITH THESE...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON WITH
BRIEF TIMES OF VLIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS...THOUGH
THEY WILL BE SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
OTHERWISE...THE CIGS WILL START TO CLEAR UP AFTER 03Z WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST AT 5
TO 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
440 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-104-106>120-082345-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-
LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...SANDY HOOK...
WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...
HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
440 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 523 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH MID EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH A FEW LARGE
STONES POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STRONG STORM. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF FLOODING...WIND
DAMAGE...OR HAIL TO THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KYZ083>088-082345-
WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTICELLO...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...
WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN
440 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH A FEW LARGER
STONES POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STRONG STORM.

ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF FLOODING...WIND
DAMAGE...OR HAIL TO THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

AR/GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
600 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

KYZ107-119-072230-
JOHNSON-MARTIN-
600 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 630
PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING...

   EAST CENTRAL JOHNSON AND
   CENTRAL MARTIN.

AT 600 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OFFUTT...OR
NEAR PAINTSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...HAMMOND AROUND
605 PM EDT...PEVIER AROUND 610 PM EDT...BRADBURY AROUND 615 PM EDT...
LOVELY AROUND 620 PM EDT...OPPY AROUND 625 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 8239 3782 8283 3792 8273 3792 8272
      3789 8264 3789 8261 3790 8260 3787 8241
      3785 8241 3783 8240 3778 8232 3775 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 278DEG 40KT 3784 8272

KAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
645 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

KYZ050-051-072300-
MONTGOMERY-BATH-
645 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 700
PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING...

   NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND
   CENTRAL BATH.

AT 645 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GRASSY LICK...
OR NEAR MOUNT STERLING...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...EWINGTON AROUND
650 PM EDT...KENDALL SPRINGS AROUND 655 PM EDT...BOURBON FURNACE
AROUND 700 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 8370 3805 8366 3806 8405 3808 8406
      3813 8408 3814 8406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 269DEG 43KT 3810 8396

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
703 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HAZARD                  37.25N 83.20W
10/07/2014                   PERRY              KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A LARGE TREE LIMB WAS BLOWN DOWN ONTO A VEHICLE IN
            DOWNTOWN HAZARD. THE TIME OF THE EVENT IS ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
732 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             SIDEVIEW                38.11N 84.04W
10/07/2014  M1.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DSTAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
733 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             PRESTON                 38.09N 83.75W
10/07/2014  E1.00 INCH       BATH               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DSTAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 NE WHEELERSBURG       37.85N 82.98W
10/07/2014                   JOHNSON            KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

JP