Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
330 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE OHIO RIVER TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING FAIR WEATHER TO OUR
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SPLIT FLOW MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW
U.S. AND RIDGE FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE LOWER MS VLY. BAND OF
W-NWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES OHIO VALLEY. FLOW TO BECOME MORE NWRLY OVERNIGHT
WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING SE THRU OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK PERTURBATION EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVG THRU INDIANA. EXPECT
AIRMASS TO CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH SFC TD/S IN THE MID/UPR
60S AND TEMPS AROUND 80...SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTBY WITH MLCAPE
OF 1500-2500 J/KG. BEST INSTBY TO OCCR OVER SW. BULK SHEAR AROUND
30-35 KTS WILL HELP ORGANIZE STORMS. EXPECT INITIAL GENESIS REGION
OVER NRN INDIANA INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO WITH STORMS DROPPING SE
THRU ILNS FA DURG AFTN/EVE HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAIN TIMING INDICATED
FROM CONVECTIVE ENABLING MODELS WILL BE THRU 9 PM. ILN/S 17Z
SOUNDING SHOWS DECAPE VALUE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN RESPONSE TO MID
LEVEL DRY AIR. THEREFORE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT INTO
EARLY EVENING. GIVEN WBZ HEIGHT AND INSTBY...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT. A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY WITH
SUPERCELLS BEFORE STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINE.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN
DIMINISH THESE POPS FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILER IN FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER/MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SPLIT FLOW MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW
U.S. AND RIDGE OVER THE GULF STATES. BAND OF W-NWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NWRLY. FRONT NEAR OHIO RIVER EARLY ON THURSDAY WILL
SLIP SOUTH OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE RAIN FREE BY
DAYBREAK...WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP VERY EARLY THURSDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THURSDAYS HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NW TO NEAR 80 SE.

SFC HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHEAST BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S
SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING ON A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW SHOULD
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THOUGH
MAJOR WEATHER MAKING SYSTEMS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE
ABSENT...A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EMERGE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES MAY BE ENHANCED ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY
UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH.

TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL START
OUT IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES IN...BEFORE RISING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY UNDER WARM ADVECTION IN THE RETURN FLOW
BEHIND THE HIGH CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES IN AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
ONCE THIS CONVECTION GETS GOING...IT SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A BROKEN
LINEAR STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES AS IT
FEEDS ON A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH BRIEF
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES. ONLY GENERIC MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS ATTM...ALLOWING SHORT
TERM RADAR TRENDS DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DETAILS AND AMENDMENTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IT APPEARS THAT THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AT
BEST AND MOST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE ACRS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY. SKIES WILL LIKELY GO PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND WITH RECENT RAINFALL...SOME MVFR TO LOCALLY
IFR MIST MAY DEVELOP. THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE PARTICULARLY HIGHER
ACRS THE SRN TAF SITES WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL
NEAR OR AFTER SUNRISE.

ON THURSDAY...FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION. CAA BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH 850 MB MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW A BROKEN
CUMULUS DECK TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
323 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-220730-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
323 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             3 WNW URBANA            40.13N 83.80W
05/21/2014  E0.75 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BINAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     HAIL             WESTVILLE               40.11N 83.84W
05/21/2014  E1.75 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HUGHES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
430 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     HAIL             3 S URBANA              40.07N 83.75W
05/21/2014  E1.25 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SOME STONES LARGER BUT WILL PHONE BACK WHEN MEASUREMENT
            CAN BE TAKEN

&&

BINAU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
433 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

OHZ026-045-212100-
HARDIN OH-UNION OH-
433 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

...A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN UNION AND
SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 431 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNT
VICTORY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...RICHWOOD.

ALSO...SOMERSVILLE...ESSEX AND MAGNETIC SPRINGS ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 4051 8341 4051 8339 4051 8325 4035 8324
      4035 8325 4043 8353 4055 8352 4056 8341

SNYDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
435 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

OHZ042-043-051-212100-
DARKE OH-MIAMI OH-SHELBY OH-
435 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SHELBY...NORTHERN MIAMI
AND EASTERN DARKE COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 434 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLOOMER...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...COVINGTON AND PIQUA.

ALSO...POLO...LOCKINGTON...PLATTSVILLE...BALLOU AND FLETCHER ARE NEAR
THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. WATER WILL
POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 4028 8401 4011 8403 4012 8449 4020 8446
      4020 8424 4028 8423

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