Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
330 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE OHIO RIVER TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING FAIR WEATHER TO OUR
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SPLIT FLOW MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW
U.S. AND RIDGE FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE LOWER MS VLY. BAND OF
W-NWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES OHIO VALLEY. FLOW TO BECOME MORE NWRLY OVERNIGHT
WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING SE THRU OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK PERTURBATION EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVG THRU INDIANA. EXPECT
AIRMASS TO CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH SFC TD/S IN THE MID/UPR
60S AND TEMPS AROUND 80...SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTBY WITH MLCAPE
OF 1500-2500 J/KG. BEST INSTBY TO OCCR OVER SW. BULK SHEAR AROUND
30-35 KTS WILL HELP ORGANIZE STORMS. EXPECT INITIAL GENESIS REGION
OVER NRN INDIANA INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO WITH STORMS DROPPING SE
THRU ILNS FA DURG AFTN/EVE HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAIN TIMING INDICATED
FROM CONVECTIVE ENABLING MODELS WILL BE THRU 9 PM. ILN/S 17Z
SOUNDING SHOWS DECAPE VALUE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN RESPONSE TO MID
LEVEL DRY AIR. THEREFORE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT INTO
EARLY EVENING. GIVEN WBZ HEIGHT AND INSTBY...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT. A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY WITH
SUPERCELLS BEFORE STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINE.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN
DIMINISH THESE POPS FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILER IN FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER/MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SPLIT FLOW MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW
U.S. AND RIDGE OVER THE GULF STATES. BAND OF W-NWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NWRLY. FRONT NEAR OHIO RIVER EARLY ON THURSDAY WILL
SLIP SOUTH OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE RAIN FREE BY
DAYBREAK...WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP VERY EARLY THURSDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THURSDAYS HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NW TO NEAR 80 SE.

SFC HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHEAST BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S
SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING ON A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW SHOULD
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THOUGH
MAJOR WEATHER MAKING SYSTEMS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE
ABSENT...A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EMERGE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES MAY BE ENHANCED ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY
UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH.

TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL START
OUT IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES IN...BEFORE RISING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY UNDER WARM ADVECTION IN THE RETURN FLOW
BEHIND THE HIGH CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES IN AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
ONCE THIS CONVECTION GETS GOING...IT SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A BROKEN
LINEAR STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES AS IT
FEEDS ON A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH BRIEF
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES. ONLY GENERIC MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS ATTM...ALLOWING SHORT
TERM RADAR TRENDS DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DETAILS AND AMENDMENTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IT APPEARS THAT THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AT
BEST AND MOST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE ACRS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY. SKIES WILL LIKELY GO PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND WITH RECENT RAINFALL...SOME MVFR TO LOCALLY
IFR MIST MAY DEVELOP. THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE PARTICULARLY HIGHER
ACRS THE SRN TAF SITES WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL
NEAR OR AFTER SUNRISE.

ON THURSDAY...FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION. CAA BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH 850 MB MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW A BROKEN
CUMULUS DECK TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
323 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-220730-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
323 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
350 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             QUINCY                  40.30N 83.97W
05/21/2014  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              OH   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

KURZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
353 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     HAIL             4 N SIDNEY              40.35N 84.17W
05/21/2014  E1.50 INCH       SHELBY             OH   PUBLIC

            HAIL REPORTED ON SIDNEY-WAPAKONETA ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

0327 PM     HAIL             4 NNE SIDNEY            40.34N 84.13W
05/21/2014  E0.88 INCH       SHELBY             OH   PUBLIC

            HAIL REPORTED NEAR SIDNEY-FREYBURG ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
354 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     HAIL             DE GRAFF                40.31N 83.91W
05/21/2014  E1.50 INCH       LOGAN              OH   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

KURZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
355 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             ST. HENRY               40.42N 84.63W
05/21/2014  E1.00 INCH       MERCER             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BINAU

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
412 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

OHZ042-043-212045-
DARKE OH-SHELBY OH-
412 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN SHELBY AND
NORTHEASTERN DARKE COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 405 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
YORKSHIRE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN DARKE AND SOUTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTIES...INCLUDING
RUSSIA...FORT LORAMIE...NEWPORT...HOUSTON...HARDIN...NEWBERN AND
LOCKINGTON.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. WATER WILL
POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 4034 8422 4020 8424 4020 8442 4022 8458
      4035 8456