Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Wilmington, OH

317 
WGUS71 KILN 220154
FFSILN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
954 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

OHC021-023-109-220203-
/O.EXP.KILN.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-140522T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-MIAMI OH-
954 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN MIAMI...NORTHERN CLARK AND
SOUTHERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM EDT...

WATER IS RECEDING AND IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT. WHILE 
THERE STILL MAY BE SOME STANDING HIGH WATER...BUT RISES ARE NO 
LONGER A THREAT.

PLEASE REPORT PREVIOUS FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY GOING TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMITTING YOUR REPORT
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

LAT...LON 4018 8403 4011 8351 4006 8350 3989 8355
      3998 8405 4007 8404 4012 8443 4019 8443
      4020 8428

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
330 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE OHIO RIVER TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING FAIR WEATHER TO OUR
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SPLIT FLOW MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW
U.S. AND RIDGE FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE LOWER MS VLY. BAND OF
W-NWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES OHIO VALLEY. FLOW TO BECOME MORE NWRLY OVERNIGHT
WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING SE THRU OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK PERTURBATION EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVG THRU INDIANA. EXPECT
AIRMASS TO CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH SFC TD/S IN THE MID/UPR
60S AND TEMPS AROUND 80...SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTBY WITH MLCAPE
OF 1500-2500 J/KG. BEST INSTBY TO OCCR OVER SW. BULK SHEAR AROUND
30-35 KTS WILL HELP ORGANIZE STORMS. EXPECT INITIAL GENESIS REGION
OVER NRN INDIANA INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO WITH STORMS DROPPING SE
THRU ILNS FA DURG AFTN/EVE HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAIN TIMING INDICATED
FROM CONVECTIVE ENABLING MODELS WILL BE THRU 9 PM. ILN/S 17Z
SOUNDING SHOWS DECAPE VALUE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN RESPONSE TO MID
LEVEL DRY AIR. THEREFORE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT INTO
EARLY EVENING. GIVEN WBZ HEIGHT AND INSTBY...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT. A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY WITH
SUPERCELLS BEFORE STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINE.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN
DIMINISH THESE POPS FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILER IN FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER/MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SPLIT FLOW MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW
U.S. AND RIDGE OVER THE GULF STATES. BAND OF W-NWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NWRLY. FRONT NEAR OHIO RIVER EARLY ON THURSDAY WILL
SLIP SOUTH OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE RAIN FREE BY
DAYBREAK...WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP VERY EARLY THURSDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THURSDAYS HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NW TO NEAR 80 SE.

SFC HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHEAST BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S
SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING ON A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW SHOULD
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THOUGH
MAJOR WEATHER MAKING SYSTEMS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE
ABSENT...A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EMERGE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES MAY BE ENHANCED ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY
UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH.

TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL START
OUT IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES IN...BEFORE RISING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY UNDER WARM ADVECTION IN THE RETURN FLOW
BEHIND THE HIGH CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES IN AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
ONCE THIS CONVECTION GETS GOING...IT SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A BROKEN
LINEAR STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES AS IT
FEEDS ON A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH BRIEF
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES. ONLY GENERIC MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS ATTM...ALLOWING SHORT
TERM RADAR TRENDS DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DETAILS AND AMENDMENTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IT APPEARS THAT THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AT
BEST AND MOST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE ACRS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY. SKIES WILL LIKELY GO PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND WITH RECENT RAINFALL...SOME MVFR TO LOCALLY
IFR MIST MAY DEVELOP. THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE PARTICULARLY HIGHER
ACRS THE SRN TAF SITES WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL
NEAR OR AFTER SUNRISE.

ON THURSDAY...FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION. CAA BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH 850 MB MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW A BROKEN
CUMULUS DECK TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
323 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-220730-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
323 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
632 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

OHZ073-080-212300-
ROSS OH-HIGHLAND OH-
632 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HIGHLAND
AND WESTERN ROSS COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 627 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLARKSBURG TO 5 MILES NORTH OF
GREENFIELD TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEESBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...

THE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF ANY RAIN.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...GREENFIELD...LEESBURG
AND BAINBRIDGE.

ALSO...CLARKSBURG...AUSTIN...EAST MONROE...FRANKFORT...SOUTH SALEM...
LATTAVILLE...SAMANTHA...BOURNEVILLE...PAINT CREEK STATE PARK AND
RAINSBORO ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3951 8304 3937 8303 3920 8323 3920 8344
      3926 8359 3938 8359 3937 8337 3951 8327

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     HEAVY RAIN       FAIRBORN                39.80N 84.02W
05/21/2014  M2.25 INCH       GREENE             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN THE LAST HOUR

&&

BINAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     HEAVY RAIN       TIPP CITY               39.96N 84.18W
05/21/2014  M4.04 INCH       MIAMI              OH   COCORAHS

            MEASURED IN COCORAHS GAUGE - STORM TOTAL

&&

BINAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
648 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N HUBER HEIGHTS       39.93N 84.11W
05/21/2014                   MIAMI              OH   PUBLIC

            WATER RUSHING OVER STUDEBAKER RD IN BETHEL TOWNSHIP AS
            SEEN IN PHOTO ON FACEBOOK.

&&

KURZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     FLOOD            TROY                    40.04N 84.20W
05/21/2014                   MIAMI              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.5 RAINFALL IN 45 MINS, PEA SIZE HAIL, UP TO 3 FT OF
            WATER IN SOME PARTS OF THE HOUSING AREA

0639 PM     HAIL             XENIA                   39.69N 83.94W
05/21/2014  E0.75 INCH       GREENE             OH   PUBLIC

0642 PM     FLOOD            TIPP CITY               39.96N 84.18W
05/21/2014                   MIAMI              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL CITY ROADS UNDER WATER

&&

HUGHES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE REXVILLE           38.96N 85.32W
05/21/2014                   RIPLEY             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

BC