Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Wilmington, NC

216 
WWUS52 KILM 112059
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
359 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

SCC033-112109-
/O.CAN.KILM.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140111T2145Z/
DILLON SC-
359 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN DILLON
COUNTY IS CANCELED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A TORNADO
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3460 7830 3456 7825 3473 7811 3472 7787
      3441 7788 3428 7903 3430 7907 3431 7908
      3461 7889 3474 7839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 258DEG 40KT 3449 7866

$$

NCC017-047-141-155-112145-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140111T2145Z/
ROBESON NC-COLUMBUS NC-BLADEN NC-PENDER NC-
359 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EST
FOR WESTERN PENDER...BLADEN...NORTHERN COLUMBUS AND SOUTHEASTERN
ROBESON COUNTIES...

AT 359 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLARKTON...OR 10 MILES
NORTH OF WHITEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ELKTON...
EMERSON...ELIZABETHTOWN...LISBON...COUNCIL...WHITE LAKE...CARVERS...
LAGOON...EAST ARCADIA...KELLY...ROWAN...POINT CASWELL...ATKINSON...
ROOKS...THE BOROUGH...CURRIE...MONTAGUE...WARDS CORNER...MALPASS
CORNER...ASHTON...VAN EDEN...LONG CREEK...MURRAY TOWN...WILLARD...
ROCKY POINT...PENDERLEA...WATHA...ST. HELENA AND BURGAW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A TORNADO
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3460 7830 3456 7825 3473 7811 3472 7787
      3441 7788 3428 7903 3430 7907 3431 7908
      3461 7889 3474 7839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 258DEG 40KT 3449 7866

$$

III

140 
WWUS52 KILM 112110
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
410 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCC155-112120-
/O.CAN.KILM.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140111T2145Z/
ROBESON NC-
410 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROBESON COUNTY IS
CANCELED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A TORNADO
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3460 7830 3456 7825 3473 7811 3472 7787
      3441 7788 3432 7873 3467 7868 3474 7839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 258DEG 40KT 3451 7851

$$

NCC017-047-141-112145-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140111T2145Z/
COLUMBUS NC-BLADEN NC-PENDER NC-
410 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EST
FOR WESTERN PENDER...EASTERN BLADEN AND NORTHEASTERN COLUMBUS
COUNTIES...

AT 410 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LISBON...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ELIZABETHTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO COUNCIL...
WHITE LAKE...CARVERS...LAGOON...EAST ARCADIA...KELLY...ROWAN...POINT
CASWELL...ATKINSON...ROOKS...THE BOROUGH...CURRIE...MONTAGUE...WARDS
CORNER...MALPASS CORNER...LONG CREEK...ASHTON...VAN EDEN...MURRAY
TOWN...WILLARD...ROCKY POINT...PENDERLEA...WATHA...ST. HELENA AND
BURGAW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A TORNADO
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3460 7830 3456 7825 3473 7811 3472 7787
      3441 7788 3432 7873 3467 7868 3474 7839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 258DEG 40KT 3451 7851

$$

III

115 
WWUS52 KILM 112125
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
425 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCC017-047-141-112145-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140111T2145Z/
COLUMBUS NC-BLADEN NC-PENDER NC-
425 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EST
FOR WESTERN PENDER...EASTERN BLADEN AND NORTHEASTERN COLUMBUS
COUNTIES...

AT 425 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR LAGOON...OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELIZABETHTOWN...MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ROWAN...POINT
CASWELL...ATKINSON...ROOKS...THE BOROUGH...CURRIE...MONTAGUE...WARDS
CORNER...MALPASS CORNER...LONG CREEK...ASHTON...VAN EDEN...MURRAY
TOWN...WILLARD...ROCKY POINT...PENDERLEA...WATHA...ST. HELENA AND
BURGAW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A TORNADO
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3460 7830 3456 7825 3473 7811 3472 7787
      3441 7788 3432 7869 3455 7855 3472 7847
      3474 7839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 258DEG 40KT 3454 7831

$$

III

111 
WWUS52 KILM 112136
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
436 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCC047-112146-
/O.CAN.KILM.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140111T2145Z/
COLUMBUS NC-
436 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY
IS CANCELED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A TORNADO
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3472 7787 3441 7788 3437 7823 3439 7824
      3440 7826 3437 7833 3438 7838 3448 7835
      3456 7825 3470 7813 3471 7812 3473 7811
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 256DEG 33KT 3450 7807

$$

NCC017-141-112145-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140111T2145Z/
BLADEN NC-PENDER NC-
436 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EST
FOR WESTERN PENDER AND SOUTHEASTERN BLADEN COUNTIES...

AT 436 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR CURRIE...OR 11 MILES WEST OF BURGAW...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WARDS
CORNER...MALPASS CORNER...LONG CREEK...PENDERLEA...ASHTON...VAN
EDEN...MURRAY TOWN...WILLARD...ROCKY POINT...WATHA AND ST. HELENA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A TORNADO
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3472 7787 3441 7788 3437 7823 3439 7824
      3440 7826 3437 7833 3438 7838 3448 7835
      3456 7825 3470 7813 3471 7812 3473 7811
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 256DEG 33KT 3450 7807

$$

III

201 
WWUS52 KILM 112144
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
444 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCC017-141-112154-
/O.EXP.KILM.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140111T2145Z/
BLADEN NC-PENDER NC-
444 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN PENDER AND
SOUTHEASTERN BLADEN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM EST...

AT 444 PM EST...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING
HAS WEAKENED...THUS THE WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A TORNADO
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3472 7787 3441 7788 3437 7823 3439 7824
      3440 7826 3437 7833 3438 7838 3448 7835
      3456 7825 3470 7813 3471 7812 3473 7811
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 256DEG 33KT 3452 7798

$$

III

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ENERGETIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING...BRINGING THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM SATURDAY...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES AS A SQUALL LINE APPROACHES FROM THE
NW. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY AND HAVE MODIFIED GRIDDED
DATABASE AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE WORDING IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
WHETHER AND WHEN A TORNADO OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RELEVANT PORTIONS
OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS...LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER THINKING ON NATURE AND TIMING
OF TODAYS EVENT. THIS IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW
CAPE SEVERE EVENT WITH A FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST...BUT A STRONG LLJ IN
ADVANCE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS FROM SEVERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOS EMBEDDED WITHIN LINE
ECHO WAVE PATTERNS. ONE SUCH LEWP WITH A HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE IS
RAPIDLY ADVANCING UPON THE CWA FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...IT IS
STILL A GOOD 200 MILES TO THE WEST OF MARLBORO COUNTY. HAVE RAISED
POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE CATEGORICAL LEVEL AND INCREASED
AFTERNOON QPF VALUES...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

THE LATEST WATER-VAPOR CHANNEL DATA FROM SATELLITE SHOWS DRY AIR
ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE WE ARE SWAMPED IN A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS THAT IS INTERACTING WITH COOL GROUND AND CHILLY INSHORE
WATERS...CREATING AREAS OF FOG AND MIST AND SWEATY SURFACES COATED
IN HEAVY DEW. AM EXPECTING THAT INCREASING WINDS WILL PARTIALLY
BREAK LOW CLOUDS LATER TODAY ALLOWING ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN THIS
STRONG WARM SECTOR TO SHOOT TEMPERATURE READINGS POTENTIALLY WELL
INTO THE 70S BEFORE CLOUD COVER BLANKETS THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT HAVE CHOSEN THE WARM SIDE OF MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR TODAY.

A SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS TODAY AND SPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
STATUS FOR OUR AREA WITH 15% / WIND-DAMAGE AND 5% / TORNADO
PROBABILITIES...AS A RELATIVELY SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACQUIRING
NEGATIVE-TILT AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT RAPIDLY TRANSIT THE
AREA. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH LOW/MID 60
DEWPOINT VALUES WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OR
SQUALL ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THE PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE CAPE FEAR REGION. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH OF AN OFF-SETTING IMPACT THE
COLDER INSHORE MARINE WATERS WILL HAVE ON THE LANDWARD MOVING
CONVECTION. 40-50 KT SW WINDS AT 1000-1500 FEET TODAY WILL POSE A
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT IF ANY MODERATE CONVECTION RAKES ACROSS LAND.

WILL ENHANCE ZFP/HWO/GRID PRODUCTS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO POINT TO A NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC COLUMN WITH
SOME LIMITS TO ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. STRONG KINEMATICS HOWEVER
AND A POTENTIAL FOR DRY-NOTCHING TO ENHANCE STORM D-CAPE WITH THE
LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED IS OF CONCERN. BEST TIMING AT THIS
JUNCTURE SHOWS THE MAIN LINE OR SQUALL IMPINGING OUR FAR INTERIOR
ZONES AT 19Z-20Z/2PM-3PM...REACHING THE COASTAL ZONES AT 00Z-01Z
/7PM- 8PM. SHARP DRYING IN WAKE OF THIS PROGRESSIVE FEATURE WILL
BRING W-WNW FLOW AND CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
SINCE THE HIGH FOLLOWING THE FRONT IS OF GREAT BASIN AND 4-CORNERS
ORIGIN...COOLING WILL BE ONLY MODERATE AND NOT OF ARCTIC FEEL
EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SUCCESSIVE RATHER
LOW AMPLITUDE S/W TROFS AND S/W RIDGES PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE THE EXITING OF A RATHER POTENT LOW AMPLITUDE
MID-LEVEL S/W TROF OFF THE EAST COAST...FOLLOWED BY A MID-LEVEL
S/W RIDGE TO PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE N-S UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE FA DURING
MONDAY. AT THE SFC...CFP BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN CAA
ACROSS THE FA AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
RIDGES ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT A BLUSTERY DAY FOR MUCH OF
SUNDAY AS A DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND FIELD HELPS TO SCOUR
OUT ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN ELONGATED
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WINDS WILL RELAX AND LIKELY DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET ALONG WITH A
DECENT SFC BASED TEMP INVERSION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FA. VARIOUS
MODEL MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS SUNDAYS MAX/MIN TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN
CONTINUES AS THE N-S MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES ACROSS AND EAST
OF THE CAROLINA COASTS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF
THE SE U.S. COAST BY MONDAY MORNING...AND PUSH WELL OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. RETURN SFC SE-S WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW
WILL COMMENCE RATHER QUICKLY. LOOK FOR MON HIGHS AND MONDAY NITE
LOWS TO PUSH 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMO NORMS. A MID-LEVEL
S/W TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY TAP SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE SOURCE AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS DO NOT OVERLY AMPLIFY THIS UPPER TROF PRIOR TO
REACHING THE FA ON TUE. THE EASTWARD MOVING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE
ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE FA BY TUE MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
LOW TO MODEST CHANCE FOR LIQUID PCPN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE PRIOR
TO THE CFP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED OR SEMI-PERMANENT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH
THE UPPER TROF IN VARIOUS AMPLIFICATION PHASES AFFECTING ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD TO ONE-HALF OF THE UNITED STATES ...AND THE
UPPER RIDGE BASICALLY FROM THE ROCKIES WESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. MODELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MANIFESTATION OF THIS LONG-WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BUT DIFFER
WITH THE TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF SUCCESSIVE MID-LEVEL S/W
TROFS THAT HELP CARVE THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN OUT. OVERALL...MAX/MIN
TEMPS ACROSS THE FA WILL RETURN BACK TO NORMAL DURING THE MID-LATE
WEEK PERIOD...AND WILL LIKELY DROP 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
NORMS BY THE NEXT WEEKEND IF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX PARTIALLY DROPS
OUT OF CANADA AS SOME MODELS INDICATE. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE RATHER
SMALL PRIOR TO EACH CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIFR SEA FOG/STRATUS AT KCRE SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS STRONGER WINDS AND LIFT AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SSW WINDS
GUSTING TO 20-30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH MVFR CIGS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE TEMPO HEAVY RAIN/LIFR VSBYS/WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT
KFLO/KLBT AND WILL MOVE EAST TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND 21Z.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS.
GENERALLY MVFR/TEMPO IFR EXPECTED AFTER THE INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVES THROUGH. BY 23Z THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KFLO/KLBT WITH
RAIN ENDING AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. BY 02Z THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH KCRE/KMYR AND KILM AROUND 03Z. VFR EXPECTED
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD WITH NW WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR BECOMING MVFR/TEMPO -RA MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. VFR TUESDAY. BREEZY WED AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM SATURDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS HAVE BUILT INTO THE
5 TO 8 FT RANGE OVER MOST OF THE WATERS...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS ARE FLYING ACROSS THE 0-20NM SE NC/NE
SC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS RANGED FROM 4-6 FEET...WITH THE
FRYING PAN SHOAL BUOY JUST BEYOND THE 20NM CORRIDOR REPORTING 7 FT
SEAS IN 8 SECOND WAVE PERIODS. THE WATERS WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE
AS AN ENERGETIC COLD FRONT EDGES CLOSE TO THE COAST TODAY AND
SWEEPS RAPIDLY OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY. A LINE OF STRONG TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND MARINERS SHOULD KEEP MINDFUL BY CHECKING RADAR TRENDS BEFORE
HEADING OUT EVEN IF ON INTER- COASTAL WATERWAYS OR RIVERS. TSTMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF CREATING
50 KT GUSTS ON THE WATERS. AFTER LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE 0-20NM WATERS. MOUNTING SEA-HEIGHTS
WILL PEAK AT 7-11 FEET NEAR DUSK BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL
SUNDAY BEFORE THE ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED AS SEAS GRADUALLY
RECOVER/SUBSIDE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY...SUNDAY...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENED SFC PG PRODUCING W TO NW WINDS
AT 15 TO 25 KT AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 4 TO 7 FT AT THE START.
THE ELONGATED CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE DIMINISHING WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SIG SEAS...THAT WILL BOTH DROP BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LIKELY WELL BEFORE SUNDAY NIGHTFALL. FOR MONDAY...RETURN
SE-S FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE HIGH WILL START THE DAY. THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL
FURTHER VEER WINDS TO SW AND INCREASE THEM AS THE SFC PG TIGHTENS.
THE INITIAL RETURN WAA FLOW WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING
THE OCEAN SFC ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SSTS IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S. INCREASING SIG SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT WILL BE A RESULT
OF THE BUILDING WIND DRIVEN WAVES OVER THE ADJACENT WARM WATERS
THAT BLEED INTO THE ILM LOCAL WATERS. SCEC OR POSSIBLY ANOTHER SCA
MAY MATERIALIZE MONDAY NIGHT. SIG SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY LOCALLY
OR ADJACENTLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 5 TO 7 SECOND PERIODS.
LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA INDICATES A 1-2 FOOT LAZY ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 10+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CO-EXIST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN ON DECK FOR THE ILM
COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. LOOK FOR A CFP EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH CAA AND A TIGHTENED SFC PG KEEPING WINDS AND SIG
SEAS ACTIVE. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PROVIDE BETTER DYNAMICS FOR BOTH WINDS AND
RESULTING SIG SEAS TO BREACH SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS. SIG SEAS WILL BE
GOVERNED BY ADJACENT OR LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES...WITH
AVERAGE PERIODS AT 4.5 TO 6.0 SECONDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MJC/MRR
MARINE...DCH/MJC/REK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
215 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCZ099-105>110-SCZ039-053>056-121915-
COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER-
COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-WILLIAMSBURG-
INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
215 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 6 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-121915-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
215 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 6 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ087-096-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-121915-
ROBESON-BLADEN-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-
215 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 4 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1244 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCZ087-SCZ017-024-111815-
DILLON-MARLBORO-ROBESON-
1244 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS DILLON...MARLBORO AND
ROBESON COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EST...

AT 1243 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
BINGHAM...OR ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF DILLON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DILLON...RED SPRINGS...ALMA...
BINGHAM...BROWNSVILLE...BUIE...ELROD...HAMER...LITTLE
ROCK...MAXTON...MINTURN AND OAK GROVE. MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALVES OF
DILLON AND ROBESON COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PONDING WATER ON ROADS.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3492 7897 3489 7892 3484 7891 3428 7952
      3439 7969 3440 7968 3464 7947 3464 7945
      3476 7935 3478 7934 3484 7929 3484 7919
      3496 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 219DEG 48KT 3442 7953

BACON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
125 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCZ087-111900-
ROBESON-
125 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ROBESON COUNTY THROUGH 200
PM EST...

AT 124 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF PARKTON TO
RENNERT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE RED SPRINGS...BUIE...REX...SHANNON...
ST. PAULS...LUMBER BRIDGE...PARKTON AND RENNERT.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THESE STORMS POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT
YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3491 7894 3481 7889 3455 7910 3475 7921
      3484 7920 3496 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 227DEG 52KT 3512 7883 3479 7905

III

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCZ087-096-111915-
BLADEN-ROBESON-
145 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS BLADEN AND ROBESON COUNTIES
THROUGH 215 PM EST...

AT 145 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM JEROME TO SMITHS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AMMON...DUART...HOWELLSVILLE...
JEROME...RUSKIN...SMITHS...TOLARSVILLE...WHITE OAK AND TAR HEEL.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 7847 3457 7884 3460 7900 3485 7883
      3485 7854
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 221DEG 52KT 3486 7876 3463 7890

III