Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Wilmington, NC

839 
WWUS52 KILM 112022
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
322 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCC047-155-SCC031-033-041-067-069-112100-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140111T2100Z/
ROBESON NC-DARLINGTON SC-MARLBORO SC-COLUMBUS NC-DILLON SC-MARION SC-
FLORENCE SC-
322 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EST
FOR NORTHERN FLORENCE...NORTHERN MARION...DILLON...NORTHWESTERN
COLUMBUS...SOUTHERN MARLBORO...SOUTHERN DARLINGTON AND ROBESON
COUNTIES...

AT 319 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARION TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF 
FLORENCE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LATTA...
CLAUSSEN...MINTURN...BLUE BRICK...LITTLE ROCK...DILLON...FLOYDALE...
HAMER...SOUTH OF THE BORDER...RAEMON...ROWLAND...WEST MARION...
PURVIS...ZION...ELROD...FORK...SMITHBORO...KEMPER...RAYNHAM...
MCDONALD...PEMBROKE...LAKE VIEW...FAIRMONT...MARIETTA...
BARNESVILLE...BUIE...PROCTORVILLE...ORRUM...LUMBERTON...HESTERTOWN
AND BOARDMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A TORNADO
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3421 8010 3436 7991 3480 7910 3443 7885
      3396 7985 3416 8015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 252DEG 50KT 3431 7947 3411 7971

$$

III

141 
WWUS52 KILM 112031
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
331 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCC047-155-SCC031-033-041-067-069-112100-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140111T2100Z/
ROBESON NC-DARLINGTON SC-MARLBORO SC-COLUMBUS NC-DILLON SC-MARION SC-
FLORENCE SC-
331 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EST
FOR NORTHERN FLORENCE...NORTHERN MARION...DILLON...NORTHWESTERN
COLUMBUS...SOUTHERN MARLBORO...SOUTHERN DARLINGTON AND ROBESON
COUNTIES...

AT 331 PM EST...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FAIRMONT TO CLAUSSEN...MOVING 
EAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ORRUM...
ZION...FORK...HESTERTOWN...KEMPER...SMITHBORO...WEST MARION...
MARIETTA...BARNESVILLE...LAKE VIEW...MARION AND BOARDMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A TORNADO
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3421 8010 3436 7991 3480 7910 3443 7885
      3396 7985 3416 8015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 257DEG 46KT 3447 7903 3415 7952

$$

III

541 
WWUS52 KILM 112042
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
342 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

SCC031-069-112052-
/O.CAN.KILM.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140111T2100Z/
DARLINGTON SC-MARLBORO SC-
342 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MARLBORO AND SOUTHERN
DARLINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A TORNADO
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3401 7991 3471 7904 3443 7885 3396 7986
      3397 7986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 257DEG 46KT 3450 7886 3418 7935

$$

NCC047-155-SCC033-041-067-112100-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140111T2100Z/
ROBESON NC-COLUMBUS NC-DILLON SC-MARION SC-FLORENCE SC-
342 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EST
FOR NORTHERN FLORENCE...NORTHERN MARION...DILLON...NORTHWESTERN
COLUMBUS AND SOUTHERN ROBESON COUNTIES...

AT 342 PM EST...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUMBERTON 
TO MARION...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY
RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A TORNADO
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3401 7991 3471 7904 3443 7885 3396 7986
      3397 7986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 257DEG 46KT 3450 7886 3418 7935

$$

III

431 
WWUS52 KILM 112050
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
350 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

SCC041-112100-
/O.CAN.KILM.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140111T2100Z/
FLORENCE SC-
350 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN FLORENCE COUNTY IS
CANCELED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A TORNADO
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3443 7923 3471 7904 3443 7885 3433 7906
      3421 7933
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 257DEG 46KT 3452 7874 3420 7923

$$

NCC047-155-SCC033-067-112100-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140111T2100Z/
ROBESON NC-COLUMBUS NC-DILLON SC-MARION SC-
350 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EST
FOR NORTHEASTERN MARION...SOUTHEASTERN DILLON...NORTHWESTERN COLUMBUS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ROBESON COUNTIES...

AT 349 PM EST...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF 
ELIZABETHTOWN TO MULLINS...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A TORNADO
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3443 7923 3471 7904 3443 7885 3433 7906
      3421 7933
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 257DEG 46KT 3452 7874 3420 7923

$$

III

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ENERGETIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING...BRINGING THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM SATURDAY...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES AS A SQUALL LINE APPROACHES FROM THE
NW. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY AND HAVE MODIFIED GRIDDED
DATABASE AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE WORDING IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
WHETHER AND WHEN A TORNADO OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RELEVANT PORTIONS
OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS...LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER THINKING ON NATURE AND TIMING
OF TODAYS EVENT. THIS IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW
CAPE SEVERE EVENT WITH A FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST...BUT A STRONG LLJ IN
ADVANCE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS FROM SEVERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOS EMBEDDED WITHIN LINE
ECHO WAVE PATTERNS. ONE SUCH LEWP WITH A HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE IS
RAPIDLY ADVANCING UPON THE CWA FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...IT IS
STILL A GOOD 200 MILES TO THE WEST OF MARLBORO COUNTY. HAVE RAISED
POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE CATEGORICAL LEVEL AND INCREASED
AFTERNOON QPF VALUES...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

THE LATEST WATER-VAPOR CHANNEL DATA FROM SATELLITE SHOWS DRY AIR
ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE WE ARE SWAMPED IN A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS THAT IS INTERACTING WITH COOL GROUND AND CHILLY INSHORE
WATERS...CREATING AREAS OF FOG AND MIST AND SWEATY SURFACES COATED
IN HEAVY DEW. AM EXPECTING THAT INCREASING WINDS WILL PARTIALLY
BREAK LOW CLOUDS LATER TODAY ALLOWING ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN THIS
STRONG WARM SECTOR TO SHOOT TEMPERATURE READINGS POTENTIALLY WELL
INTO THE 70S BEFORE CLOUD COVER BLANKETS THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT HAVE CHOSEN THE WARM SIDE OF MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR TODAY.

A SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS TODAY AND SPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
STATUS FOR OUR AREA WITH 15% / WIND-DAMAGE AND 5% / TORNADO
PROBABILITIES...AS A RELATIVELY SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACQUIRING
NEGATIVE-TILT AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT RAPIDLY TRANSIT THE
AREA. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH LOW/MID 60
DEWPOINT VALUES WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OR
SQUALL ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THE PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE CAPE FEAR REGION. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH OF AN OFF-SETTING IMPACT THE
COLDER INSHORE MARINE WATERS WILL HAVE ON THE LANDWARD MOVING
CONVECTION. 40-50 KT SW WINDS AT 1000-1500 FEET TODAY WILL POSE A
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT IF ANY MODERATE CONVECTION RAKES ACROSS LAND.

WILL ENHANCE ZFP/HWO/GRID PRODUCTS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO POINT TO A NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC COLUMN WITH
SOME LIMITS TO ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. STRONG KINEMATICS HOWEVER
AND A POTENTIAL FOR DRY-NOTCHING TO ENHANCE STORM D-CAPE WITH THE
LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED IS OF CONCERN. BEST TIMING AT THIS
JUNCTURE SHOWS THE MAIN LINE OR SQUALL IMPINGING OUR FAR INTERIOR
ZONES AT 19Z-20Z/2PM-3PM...REACHING THE COASTAL ZONES AT 00Z-01Z
/7PM- 8PM. SHARP DRYING IN WAKE OF THIS PROGRESSIVE FEATURE WILL
BRING W-WNW FLOW AND CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
SINCE THE HIGH FOLLOWING THE FRONT IS OF GREAT BASIN AND 4-CORNERS
ORIGIN...COOLING WILL BE ONLY MODERATE AND NOT OF ARCTIC FEEL
EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SUCCESSIVE RATHER
LOW AMPLITUDE S/W TROFS AND S/W RIDGES PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE THE EXITING OF A RATHER POTENT LOW AMPLITUDE
MID-LEVEL S/W TROF OFF THE EAST COAST...FOLLOWED BY A MID-LEVEL
S/W RIDGE TO PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE N-S UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE FA DURING
MONDAY. AT THE SFC...CFP BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN CAA
ACROSS THE FA AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
RIDGES ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT A BLUSTERY DAY FOR MUCH OF
SUNDAY AS A DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND FIELD HELPS TO SCOUR
OUT ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN ELONGATED
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WINDS WILL RELAX AND LIKELY DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET ALONG WITH A
DECENT SFC BASED TEMP INVERSION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FA. VARIOUS
MODEL MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS SUNDAYS MAX/MIN TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN
CONTINUES AS THE N-S MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES ACROSS AND EAST
OF THE CAROLINA COASTS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF
THE SE U.S. COAST BY MONDAY MORNING...AND PUSH WELL OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. RETURN SFC SE-S WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW
WILL COMMENCE RATHER QUICKLY. LOOK FOR MON HIGHS AND MONDAY NITE
LOWS TO PUSH 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMO NORMS. A MID-LEVEL
S/W TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY TAP SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE SOURCE AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS DO NOT OVERLY AMPLIFY THIS UPPER TROF PRIOR TO
REACHING THE FA ON TUE. THE EASTWARD MOVING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE
ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE FA BY TUE MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
LOW TO MODEST CHANCE FOR LIQUID PCPN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE PRIOR
TO THE CFP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED OR SEMI-PERMANENT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH
THE UPPER TROF IN VARIOUS AMPLIFICATION PHASES AFFECTING ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD TO ONE-HALF OF THE UNITED STATES ...AND THE
UPPER RIDGE BASICALLY FROM THE ROCKIES WESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. MODELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MANIFESTATION OF THIS LONG-WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BUT DIFFER
WITH THE TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF SUCCESSIVE MID-LEVEL S/W
TROFS THAT HELP CARVE THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN OUT. OVERALL...MAX/MIN
TEMPS ACROSS THE FA WILL RETURN BACK TO NORMAL DURING THE MID-LATE
WEEK PERIOD...AND WILL LIKELY DROP 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
NORMS BY THE NEXT WEEKEND IF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX PARTIALLY DROPS
OUT OF CANADA AS SOME MODELS INDICATE. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE RATHER
SMALL PRIOR TO EACH CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIFR SEA FOG/STRATUS AT KCRE SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS STRONGER WINDS AND LIFT AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SSW WINDS
GUSTING TO 20-30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH MVFR CIGS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE TEMPO HEAVY RAIN/LIFR VSBYS/WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT
KFLO/KLBT AND WILL MOVE EAST TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND 21Z.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS.
GENERALLY MVFR/TEMPO IFR EXPECTED AFTER THE INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVES THROUGH. BY 23Z THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KFLO/KLBT WITH
RAIN ENDING AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. BY 02Z THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH KCRE/KMYR AND KILM AROUND 03Z. VFR EXPECTED
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD WITH NW WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR BECOMING MVFR/TEMPO -RA MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. VFR TUESDAY. BREEZY WED AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM SATURDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS HAVE BUILT INTO THE
5 TO 8 FT RANGE OVER MOST OF THE WATERS...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS ARE FLYING ACROSS THE 0-20NM SE NC/NE
SC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS RANGED FROM 4-6 FEET...WITH THE
FRYING PAN SHOAL BUOY JUST BEYOND THE 20NM CORRIDOR REPORTING 7 FT
SEAS IN 8 SECOND WAVE PERIODS. THE WATERS WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE
AS AN ENERGETIC COLD FRONT EDGES CLOSE TO THE COAST TODAY AND
SWEEPS RAPIDLY OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY. A LINE OF STRONG TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND MARINERS SHOULD KEEP MINDFUL BY CHECKING RADAR TRENDS BEFORE
HEADING OUT EVEN IF ON INTER- COASTAL WATERWAYS OR RIVERS. TSTMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF CREATING
50 KT GUSTS ON THE WATERS. AFTER LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE 0-20NM WATERS. MOUNTING SEA-HEIGHTS
WILL PEAK AT 7-11 FEET NEAR DUSK BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL
SUNDAY BEFORE THE ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED AS SEAS GRADUALLY
RECOVER/SUBSIDE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY...SUNDAY...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENED SFC PG PRODUCING W TO NW WINDS
AT 15 TO 25 KT AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 4 TO 7 FT AT THE START.
THE ELONGATED CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE DIMINISHING WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SIG SEAS...THAT WILL BOTH DROP BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LIKELY WELL BEFORE SUNDAY NIGHTFALL. FOR MONDAY...RETURN
SE-S FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE HIGH WILL START THE DAY. THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL
FURTHER VEER WINDS TO SW AND INCREASE THEM AS THE SFC PG TIGHTENS.
THE INITIAL RETURN WAA FLOW WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING
THE OCEAN SFC ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SSTS IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S. INCREASING SIG SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT WILL BE A RESULT
OF THE BUILDING WIND DRIVEN WAVES OVER THE ADJACENT WARM WATERS
THAT BLEED INTO THE ILM LOCAL WATERS. SCEC OR POSSIBLY ANOTHER SCA
MAY MATERIALIZE MONDAY NIGHT. SIG SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY LOCALLY
OR ADJACENTLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 5 TO 7 SECOND PERIODS.
LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA INDICATES A 1-2 FOOT LAZY ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 10+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CO-EXIST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN ON DECK FOR THE ILM
COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. LOOK FOR A CFP EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH CAA AND A TIGHTENED SFC PG KEEPING WINDS AND SIG
SEAS ACTIVE. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PROVIDE BETTER DYNAMICS FOR BOTH WINDS AND
RESULTING SIG SEAS TO BREACH SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS. SIG SEAS WILL BE
GOVERNED BY ADJACENT OR LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES...WITH
AVERAGE PERIODS AT 4.5 TO 6.0 SECONDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MJC/MRR
MARINE...DCH/MJC/REK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
215 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCZ099-105>110-SCZ039-053>056-121915-
COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER-
COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-WILLIAMSBURG-
INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
215 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 6 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-121915-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
215 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 6 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ087-096-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-121915-
ROBESON-BLADEN-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-
215 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 4 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1244 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCZ087-SCZ017-024-111815-
DILLON-MARLBORO-ROBESON-
1244 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS DILLON...MARLBORO AND
ROBESON COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EST...

AT 1243 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
BINGHAM...OR ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF DILLON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DILLON...RED SPRINGS...ALMA...
BINGHAM...BROWNSVILLE...BUIE...ELROD...HAMER...LITTLE
ROCK...MAXTON...MINTURN AND OAK GROVE. MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALVES OF
DILLON AND ROBESON COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PONDING WATER ON ROADS.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3492 7897 3489 7892 3484 7891 3428 7952
      3439 7969 3440 7968 3464 7947 3464 7945
      3476 7935 3478 7934 3484 7929 3484 7919
      3496 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 219DEG 48KT 3442 7953

BACON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
125 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCZ087-111900-
ROBESON-
125 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ROBESON COUNTY THROUGH 200
PM EST...

AT 124 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF PARKTON TO
RENNERT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE RED SPRINGS...BUIE...REX...SHANNON...
ST. PAULS...LUMBER BRIDGE...PARKTON AND RENNERT.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THESE STORMS POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT
YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3491 7894 3481 7889 3455 7910 3475 7921
      3484 7920 3496 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 227DEG 52KT 3512 7883 3479 7905

III

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCZ087-096-111915-
BLADEN-ROBESON-
145 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS BLADEN AND ROBESON COUNTIES
THROUGH 215 PM EST...

AT 145 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM JEROME TO SMITHS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AMMON...DUART...HOWELLSVILLE...
JEROME...RUSKIN...SMITHS...TOLARSVILLE...WHITE OAK AND TAR HEEL.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 7847 3457 7884 3460 7900 3485 7883
      3485 7854
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 221DEG 52KT 3486 7876 3463 7890

III