Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

January 11, 20149 counties in North Carolina; Chester County, York County, South Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jan 11, 2014, 11:13 AM EST for 9 counties in North Carolina; Chester County, York County, South Carolina. It was in force for 62 min. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jan 11, 2014, 11:13 AM EST (16:13 UTC)
Expired
Jan 11, 2014, 12:15 PM EST
In force
62 min
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon

Counties Cabarrus County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Union County, NC, Chester County, SC, York County, SC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 165 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jan 11, 11:13 AM ESTTSTM WND DMG2 W Statesville, NCTREE DOWN
Jan 11, 11:30 AM ESTTSTM WND DMG3 S Mooresville, NCPOWER LINES DOWN
Jan 11, 11:50 AM ESTTSTM WND DMGConcord, NCTREE DOWN
Jan 11, 11:52 AM ESTTSTM WND DMG4 W Midland, NCTREE ON POWER LINES CABARRUS STATION RD

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 4 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 0 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jan 11, 9:30 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 4.2 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2014-01-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 35 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2014-01-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 361 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
35 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-173 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
419 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
361 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
406 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS52 KGSP 111613
SVRGSP
NCC025-035-059-071-097-109-119-159-179-SCC023-091-111715-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0007.140111T1613Z-140111T1715Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1113 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CABARRUS COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
  SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
  DAVIE COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
  EASTERN GASTON COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
  IREDELL COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
  EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
  MECKLENBURG COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
  ROWAN COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
  UNION COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
  EASTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
  EASTERN YORK COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1215 PM EST

* AT 1108 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
  FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WINDY GAP TO LOWRYS...AND MOVING EAST AT
  55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STATESVILLE...ROCK HILL...CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE...UNC CHARLOTTE...
  MOCKSVILLE...CONCORD...SALISBURY...MONROE...TROUTMAN...TEGA CAY...
  MOUNTAIN ISLAND LAKE...PAW CREEK...RICHBURG...CAROWINDS...
  HARMONY...CORNELIUS...DAVIDSON...FORT MILL...MOORESVILLE AND
  HUNTERSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3519 8050 3519 8027 3482 8031
      3481 8079 3494 8079 3505 8089 3455 8088
      3458 8126 3607 8098 3607 8046 3593 8036
      3589 8036 3588 8041 3585 8038 3582 8047
      3574 8045 3573 8034 3553 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1613Z 264DEG 48KT 3606 8084 3481 8109

$$
JOH
2 follow-up statements
540 
WWUS52 KGSP 111634
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1134 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCC035-109-111645-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-140111T1715Z/
CATAWBA NC-LINCOLN NC-
1134 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THIS 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3549 8031 3519 8050 3519 8027 3482 8031
      3481 8078 3494 8079 3505 8089 3455 8088
      3458 8126 3540 8096 3606 8081 3607 8046
      3593 8036 3589 8036 3588 8041 3585 8038
      3582 8047 3574 8045 3572 8034 3553 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 264DEG 48KT 3607 8063 3482 8088

$$

NCC025-059-071-097-119-159-179-SCC023-091-111715-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-140111T1715Z/
CABARRUS NC-DAVIE NC-GASTON NC-IREDELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-UNION NC-
ROWAN NC-CHESTER SC-YORK SC-
1134 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROWAN...
UNION...MECKLENBURG...EASTERN IREDELL...EASTERN GASTON...DAVIE AND
CABARRUS COUNTIES IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND EASTERN
YORK AND EASTERN CHESTER COUNTIES IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL
1215 PM EST...

AT 1133 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM COURTNEY TO CATAWBA...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  UNC CHARLOTTE...MOCKSVILLE...CONCORD...SALISBURY...MONROE...
  EASTLAND MALL...ENOCHVILLE...CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY...MATTHEWS...
  FARMINGTON...HARRISBURG...WAXHAW...LANDIS...COOLEEMEE...
  KANNAPOLIS...STALLINGS...MINT HILL...CHINA GROVE...MINERAL SPRINGS
  AND BERMUDA RUN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 8031 3519 8050 3519 8027 3482 8031
      3481 8078 3494 8079 3505 8089 3455 8088
      3458 8126 3540 8096 3606 8081 3607 8046
      3593 8036 3589 8036 3588 8041 3585 8038
      3582 8047 3574 8045 3572 8034 3553 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 264DEG 48KT 3607 8063 3482 8088

$$
JOH
922 
WWUS52 KGSP 111701
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1201 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCC071-097-111710-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-140111T1715Z/
GASTON NC-IREDELL NC-
1201 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN IREDELL AND EASTERN
GASTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THIS 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3549 8031 3519 8050 3519 8027 3482 8031
      3481 8078 3494 8079 3505 8089 3455 8088
      3458 8126 3538 8070 3605 8059 3607 8046
      3593 8036 3589 8036 3588 8041 3585 8038
      3582 8047 3574 8045 3572 8034 3553 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1700Z 267DEG 40KT 3607 8033 3482 8059

$$

NCC025-059-119-159-179-SCC023-091-111715-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-140111T1715Z/
CABARRUS NC-DAVIE NC-MECKLENBURG NC-UNION NC-ROWAN NC-CHESTER SC-
YORK SC-
1201 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROWAN...
UNION...SOUTHEASTERN MECKLENBURG...DAVIE AND CABARRUS COUNTIES IN THE
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN YORK AND EASTERN
CHESTER COUNTIES IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 1215 PM EST...

AT 1159 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM CLEMMONS TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MINERAL SPRINGS...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MONROE...UNIONVILLE...ROCKWELL...MOUNT PLEASANT...HIGH ROCK LAKE...
  WINGATE...MARSHVILLE...STURDIVANTS...TRINITY...CRAVEN...GOLD HILL
  AND NEW SALEM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 8031 3519 8050 3519 8027 3482 8031
      3481 8078 3494 8079 3505 8089 3455 8088
      3458 8126 3538 8070 3605 8059 3607 8046
      3593 8036 3589 8036 3588 8041 3585 8038
      3582 8047 3574 8045 3572 8034 3553 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1700Z 267DEG 40KT 3607 8033 3482 8059

$$
JOH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jan 11, 11:12 AM EST, 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 11, 11:12 AM EST, 1 minute before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1112 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND BE WELL
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.  DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.  SHOWERS WILL
RETURN MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM EST SATURDAY...IT/S BEEN AN ACTIVE MORNING AS A BOWING
MCS HAS TRANSLATED RAPIDLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
60KT WINDS JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SFC...THE LINE HAS
KNOCKED DOWN QUITE A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES. OVERALL THE LINE IS
WEAKENING. AT LEAST THE REFLECTIVITY ISN/T AS TIGHT AND THE FORWARD
PROPAGATION HAS SLOWED. HOWEVER...THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO
ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE THIS AFTN OUT ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT.
CONSIDERING THAT THE WEDGE RIDGE HAS LIFTED ALMOST UP TO
STATESVILLE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AHEAD OF THE LINE. ONCE THE LINE CLEARS THE
FA...WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEAVY STRATIFORM PCPN BEHIND
THE MCS. RAINFALL RATES OF .20 TO .30 INCHES PER HOUR ARE COMMON IN
A LARGE AREA UNDER THE STRATIFORM RAIN...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO PUSH
A FEW MORE AREAS INTO FLOOD.

AS OF 630 AM EST...THE LEAD AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING NWD OVER THE
SHALLOWING CAD LAYER HAS PRODUCED LOCAL ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTER
INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES...AND ASSOCIATED MINOR FLOODING. THIS
REGION OF HEAVIER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT THROUGH 8 AM. MEANWHILE...RADARS TO THE WEST ARE SHOWING
LINES OF HEAVY PRECIP AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY EWD
THROUGH TN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO REFOCUS A BIT
BACK OVER THE SW MTNS IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT.
MEANWHILE...THE 850 MB JET HAS INCREASED TO 50 TO 60 KT AND AS
INDICATED ON VAD WIND PROFILES. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THUS CONTINUE
OVER THE RIDGE TOPS THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST SHEAR PROFILES
WORKING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SHALLOW COLD WEDGE LAYER EAST
OF THE MTNS GETS PINCHED AND ERODES IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY BL
FLOW...ENOUGH OVERLAP OF SHEAR AND CAPE IN SRN/ERN SECTIONS WILL
OCCUR TO SUPPORT AN ISOLD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THIS IS MENTIONED
IN THE HWO IN LINE WITH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA. SHERB VALUES
CONTINUE TO SHOW 1+ ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 BY 18Z.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA 21Z TO 00Z JUST AS THE
DEEPER DPVA WITH THE UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH ALONG WITH DRYING.
LAPSE RATES UNDER THE PASSING TROUGH ARE QUITE STEEP TONIGHT...BUT
PROFILES APPEAR TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE COLD ADVECTION
EXCEPT IN THE NC MOUNTAINS WHERE BRIEF NW FLOW MOISTURE WILL OCCUR.
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 AM EST SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD
TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES
SUNDAY MORNING.  DEEP UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.  DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
FOR SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL.  WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD WHICH WILL SETUP WARM
RETURN FLOW FROM THE EASTERN GULF.  TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE DIGGING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA.  IN RESPONSE...POPS WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY LEVELS LATE IN
THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
DECREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST.
BACK TO THE WEST ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD
INITIATE AMONGST WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLS ALONG THE WESTWARD FACING SLOPES.  THEREFORE KEPT PREVIOUS
FORECAST MENTION OF CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS
REMAINING GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS BRIEF UPSLOPE EVENT IS NOT ENTIRELY HIGH AS
MODELS SEEMS TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROFILES.  NAM/GFS HAVE COOLER SOLUTIONS WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE
WARMER OF THE THREE...THEREFORE LIMITED POPS TO LOW END CHANCE
LEVELS.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL NOT SUFFER IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEAK FROPA AS NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM SAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF SYSTEMS. AT 00Z WED...THEY ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
BUT THEN DIFFER QUITE A LOT LATER IN THE WEEK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TUESDAY EVENING
REACHING THE NC MTNS BY 06Z WED. THICKNESSES PLUG RAPIDLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH REACHING OUR AREA WED
MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT GREATEST IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME WHICH
WILL LEAD TO THE GREATER WIND SPEEDS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE
WESTERLY AT 00Z AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SWITCH TO NW AT
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25KTS AT 850MB THROUGH WED MORNING. CONTINUED NW
INTO WED EVENING BUT 10 TO 20KT WIND AT 850MB. THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE. SNOW RATES ARE GREATEST WED MORNING AND THEN TAPER OFF
AND END WED EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE REACHING OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE SEEMS QUITE LIMITED. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT REACHES THE NC MTNS 12Z FRIDAY
WITH AXIS OVER OUR AREA AT 18Z FRIDAY THEN MOVING IT OFF THE EAST
COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF HAS IT REACHING THE NC MTNS AT 18Z
FRIDAY WITH AXIS OF TROUGH GETTING TO US AT 18Z SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LLWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A STOUT 50
TO 60 KT 850 MB JET MOVES IN ATOP A SHALLOWING COLD WEDGE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WILL NEED TEMPO THUNDER FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS
MORNING...THEN A RETURN TO CATEGORICAL THUNDER AFTER 17Z WITH THE
MAIN PRE/FRONTAL BAND. CONDITIONS MAY VARY AT TIMES...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL FROPA. SRLY WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY GUSTY THROUGH 21Z AND THEN SHIFT SHARPLY WEST THEN NW
WITH FROPA.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPO MORNING TSTMS WILL GIVE WAY TO BRIEFLY WEAKER
SHOWERS AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF FRONTAL TSTMS THROUGH MIDDAY.
EXPECT MAINLY LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WILL CONTINUE THE
LLWS MENTION THROUGH THE MORNING AT MOST SITES GIVEN THE STOUT SRLY
JET JUST ABOVE THE COOL STABLE SFC LAYER. SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
UNTIL FROPA 17Z TO 20Z...WITH A SHARP SHIFT TO W THEN NW THIS AFTN.
EXPECT CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING NW
FLOW MOISTURE FLIRTING WITH KAVL.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SWIFTLY
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY THEN BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUE INTO WED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z
KCLT       MED   70%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  85%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 11, 9:50 AM EST, 1 hour 23 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
950 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-056-057-501>506-121500-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
950 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IF TRAINING OF SHOWERS OCCURS. ADDITIONALLY...A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...POTENTIALLY BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ029-NCZ068>072-082-507>510-SCZ003-006>014-019-121500-
ELBERT-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
950 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-121500-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
950 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING ABOVE
3500 FEET...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF
TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THESE
AREAS...SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS COULD EXCEED THEIR BANKS
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ053-064-065-121500-
BUNCOMBE-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
950 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS. IF TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THESE AREAS...SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS COULD EXCEED THEIR BANKS
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 11, 10:34 AM EST, 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1034 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 AM     TSTM WND DMG     RUTHERFORDTON           35.36N 81.96W
01/11/2014                   RUTHERFORD         NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DONW ON EAST 2ND ST.

&&

07
Local storm report, Jan 11, 10:46 AM EST, 27 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1046 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE WOODRUFF           34.79N 81.97W
01/11/2014                   SPARTANBURG        SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DOWN ON PRICE HOUSE RD NEAR HOBBYVILLE RD

&&

07
Local storm report, Jan 11, 10:51 AM EST, 22 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1051 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E ENOREE              34.65N 81.89W
01/11/2014                   SPARTANBURG        SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DOWN 775 BROWNING RD

&&

07
Special weather statement, Jan 11, 10:54 AM EST, 19 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1054 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

SCZ011-012-019-111630-
ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-LAURENS-
1054 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN LAURENS...GREENWOOD AND
SOUTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 AM EST...

AT 1051 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JOANNA TO 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF TIGNALL...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  NINETY SIX...
  TROY...
  CALLISON...

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3401 8224 3397 8231 3406 8234 3407 8253
      3401 8259 3406 8263 3407 8263 3411 8257
      3445 8200 3449 8168 3436 8178 3430 8189
      3420 8194 3413 8187 3397 8199 3397 8219

08
Local storm report, Jan 11, 10:58 AM EST, 15 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1058 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 NW SPARTANBURG        34.99N 81.98W
01/11/2014                   SPARTANBURG        SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DOWN HOWARD STREET AND ASHEVILLE HWY

&&

07
Local storm report, Jan 11, 11:08 AM EST, 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1108 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW ENOREE             34.64N 81.99W
01/11/2014                   LAURENS            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DOWN ON HWY 221

1044 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CLINTON                 34.48N 81.87W
01/11/2014                   LAURENS            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DOWN ON HOLMES BRIDGE RD NEAR MILAM RD

1012 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NE HICKORY TAVERN     34.55N 82.16W
01/11/2014                   LAURENS            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DOWN ON GREEN POND RD NEAR RABUN CH RD

&&

07

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 11, 8:22 AM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCabarrus, Mecklenburg, Rowan, Union2 hr
Jan 11, 8:24 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPJackson, Macon66 min
Jan 11, 8:55 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPTransylvania65 min
Jan 11, 9:19 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPHenderson, Polk, Transylvania56 min
Jan 11, 9:51 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCleveland, Henderson, Polk, Rutherford54 min
Jan 11, 10:15 AM ESTFlash Flood WarningGSPCabarrus, Mecklenburg, Union6 hr
Jan 11, 10:24 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCleveland, Gaston, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Rutherford66 min
Jan 11, 10:41 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPAlexander, Burke, Caldwell, Catawba, Iredell, Lincoln49 min
Jan 11, 12:09 PM ESTTornado WarningGSPCabarrus21 min
Jan 11, 1:20 PM ESTRiver Flood AdvisoryGSPGaston12 hr
Jan 11, 1:40 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningGSPGaston23 hr
Jan 11, 2:29 PM ESTWind AdvisoryGSPAvery, Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, Mitchell, Yancey19 hr
Jan 11, 3:33 PM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPHenderson, Transylvania6 hr
Jan 11, 3:58 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningGSPCabarrus, Mecklenburg6 hr
Jan 11, 5:07 AM ESTFlash Flood WarningGSPAnderson3 hr
Jan 11, 5:37 AM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPGreenville113 min
Jan 11, 6:50 AM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPSpartanburg2 hr
Jan 11, 9:21 AM ESTFlash Flood WarningGSPAbbeville, Anderson, Greenville, Laurens, Oconee, Pickens and 1 more6 hr
Jan 11, 9:43 AM ESTTornado WarningGSPAbbeville, Anderson, Greenville, Laurens47 min
Jan 11, 10:54 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementGSPGreenwood36 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2014Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in South Carolina, 2014Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.