River Flood Warning 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
108 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND BE WELL
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.  DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.  SHOWERS WILL
RETURN MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM EST SATURDAY...IT/S BEEN AN ACTIVE MORNING AS A BOWING
MCS HAS TRANSLATED RAPIDLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
60KT WINDS JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SFC...THE LINE HAS
KNOCKED DOWN QUITE A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES. OVERALL THE LINE IS
WEAKENING. AT LEAST THE REFLECTIVITY ISN/T AS TIGHT AND THE FORWARD
PROPAGATION HAS SLOWED. HOWEVER...THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO
ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE THIS AFTN OUT ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT.
CONSIDERING THAT THE WEDGE RIDGE HAS LIFTED ALMOST UP TO
STATESVILLE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AHEAD OF THE LINE. ONCE THE LINE CLEARS THE
FA...WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEAVY STRATIFORM PCPN BEHIND
THE MCS. RAINFALL RATES OF .20 TO .30 INCHES PER HOUR ARE COMMON IN
A LARGE AREA UNDER THE STRATIFORM RAIN...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO PUSH
A FEW MORE AREAS INTO FLOOD.

AS OF 630 AM EST...THE LEAD AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING NWD OVER THE
SHALLOWING CAD LAYER HAS PRODUCED LOCAL ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTER
INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES...AND ASSOCIATED MINOR FLOODING. THIS
REGION OF HEAVIER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT THROUGH 8 AM. MEANWHILE...RADARS TO THE WEST ARE SHOWING
LINES OF HEAVY PRECIP AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY EWD
THROUGH TN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO REFOCUS A BIT
BACK OVER THE SW MTNS IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT.
MEANWHILE...THE 850 MB JET HAS INCREASED TO 50 TO 60 KT AND AS
INDICATED ON VAD WIND PROFILES. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THUS CONTINUE
OVER THE RIDGE TOPS THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST SHEAR PROFILES
WORKING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SHALLOW COLD WEDGE LAYER EAST
OF THE MTNS GETS PINCHED AND ERODES IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY BL
FLOW...ENOUGH OVERLAP OF SHEAR AND CAPE IN SRN/ERN SECTIONS WILL
OCCUR TO SUPPORT AN ISOLD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THIS IS MENTIONED
IN THE HWO IN LINE WITH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA. SHERB VALUES
CONTINUE TO SHOW 1+ ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 BY 18Z.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA 21Z TO 00Z JUST AS THE
DEEPER DPVA WITH THE UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH ALONG WITH DRYING.
LAPSE RATES UNDER THE PASSING TROUGH ARE QUITE STEEP TONIGHT...BUT
PROFILES APPEAR TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE COLD ADVECTION
EXCEPT IN THE NC MOUNTAINS WHERE BRIEF NW FLOW MOISTURE WILL OCCUR.
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 AM EST SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD
TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES
SUNDAY MORNING.  DEEP UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.  DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
FOR SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL.  WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD WHICH WILL SETUP WARM
RETURN FLOW FROM THE EASTERN GULF.  TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE DIGGING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA.  IN RESPONSE...POPS WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY LEVELS LATE IN
THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
DECREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST.
BACK TO THE WEST ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD
INITIATE AMONGST WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLS ALONG THE WESTWARD FACING SLOPES.  THEREFORE KEPT PREVIOUS
FORECAST MENTION OF CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS
REMAINING GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS BRIEF UPSLOPE EVENT IS NOT ENTIRELY HIGH AS
MODELS SEEMS TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROFILES.  NAM/GFS HAVE COOLER SOLUTIONS WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE
WARMER OF THE THREE...THEREFORE LIMITED POPS TO LOW END CHANCE
LEVELS.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL NOT SUFFER IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEAK FROPA AS NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM SAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF SYSTEMS. AT 00Z WED...THEY ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
BUT THEN DIFFER QUITE A LOT LATER IN THE WEEK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TUESDAY EVENING
REACHING THE NC MTNS BY 06Z WED. THICKNESSES PLUG RAPIDLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH REACHING OUR AREA WED
MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT GREATEST IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME WHICH
WILL LEAD TO THE GREATER WIND SPEEDS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE
WESTERLY AT 00Z AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SWITCH TO NW AT
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25KTS AT 850MB THROUGH WED MORNING. CONTINUED NW
INTO WED EVENING BUT 10 TO 20KT WIND AT 850MB. THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE. SNOW RATES ARE GREATEST WED MORNING AND THEN TAPER OFF
AND END WED EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE REACHING OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE SEEMS QUITE LIMITED. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT REACHES THE NC MTNS 12Z FRIDAY
WITH AXIS OVER OUR AREA AT 18Z FRIDAY THEN MOVING IT OFF THE EAST
COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF HAS IT REACHING THE NC MTNS AT 18Z
FRIDAY WITH AXIS OF TROUGH GETTING TO US AT 18Z SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NOW THAT A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE
AIRFIELD...MODERATE TO HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. PERIODIC IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT...ONCE
THE RAIN SLACKS OFF...LOW CIGS SHOULD BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD. THE TRUE SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECT TO COME THROUGH AROUND
23 UTC...AT WHICH TIME CIGS WILL LIFT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
AT AROUND 10 KTS...THEN VEER TO WEST AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH.
WINDS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE BACK A
LITTLE TO SOUTHWEST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...FORECAST REASONING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES IS
SIMILAR TO THAT FOR KCLT...THOUGH LOW CIGS AND PCPN WILL END A
LITTLE MORE QUICKLY OVER THE UPSTATE AND WILL BE ENDING WITHIN THE
HOUR UP AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SWIFTLY
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY THEN BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUE INTO WED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
134 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>506-121845-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
134 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH
THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF SHOWERS OCCURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-507>510-
SCZ001>014-019-121845-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
134 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS
COULD EXCEED THEIR BANKS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1136 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 AM     TSTM WND DMG     UNION                   34.72N 81.62W
01/11/2014                   UNION              SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MULITPLE TREES DOWN ACROSS COUNTY.

1040 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 WNW UNION             34.75N 81.72W
01/11/2014                   UNION              SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE.

&&

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1143 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GASTONIA                35.25N 81.17W
01/11/2014                   GASTON             NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS COUNTY.

1108 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW MOUNT HOLLY        35.33N 81.06W
01/11/2014                   GASTON             NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            POWER LINES DOWN BETWEEN STANLY AND MT HOLLEY.

&&

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1147 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1104 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N YORK                35.05N 81.24W
01/11/2014                   YORK               SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MUTILPLE TREES DOWN NORTH END OF COUNTY.

1104 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N YORK                35.05N 81.24W
01/11/2014                   YORK               SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL POWER LINES DOWN NORTHERN YORK COUNTY.

&&

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1211 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WSW BELTON            34.51N 82.53W
01/11/2014                   ANDERSON           SC   PUBLIC

            JAMES COX ROAD TOTALLY BLOCKED OFF ROAD FLOODED WITH
            WATER FLOWING OVER ROAD AT PEA CREEK. SECOND TIME ROAD
            FLOODED TODAY.

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1212 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CONCORD                 35.41N 80.59W
01/11/2014                   CABARRUS           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DOWN

1152 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W MIDLAND             35.23N 80.58W
01/11/2014                   CABARRUS           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE ON POWER LINES CABARRUS STATION RD

&&

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1250 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MONROE                  34.99N 80.54W
01/11/2014                   UNION              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MUTLIPLE TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

1200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WAXHAW                  34.92N 80.74W
01/11/2014                   UNION              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            POWER LINE DOWN IN WAXHAW.

&&

07