Severe Thunderstorm Warning 316, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
818 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
THEN OFFSHORE BY TOMORROW NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...AN ORGANIZED LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
SLIGHTLY BOWING SEGMENTS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT AND IS NOW
MOVING THRU THE GSP METRO AND AREAS DUE NORTH AND SOUTH. SBCAPE FROM
SPC MESOANALYSIS REMAINS ON THE ORDER OF 200-500 J AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...CONCURRENT WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SOME PORTIONS OF
THE LINE HAVE EXHIBITED ROTATION AND WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON IT AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER UNSTABLE AIR. DISCRETE MINOR
CONVECTION HAS FORMED AHEAD OF THIS LINE AND THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE
AS LLVL FLOW INCREASES NOCTURNALLY AND NEARER THE FRONT. ACTIVITY
ALSO IS GROWING AT THE SRN END OF THE LINEAR FEATURE POSSIBLY AIDED
BY THE STRENGTHENING FLOW. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS LINE POPS WILL
QUICKLY DROP OFF. WE WILL TRIM OUT COUNTIES FROM THE TORNADO AND/OR
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AS IT PASSES.

AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...RATHER POTENT UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.  LATEST DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONSUMES THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK REGION...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 5 PERCENT AREA FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.  THIS COINCIDES
WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROF...UPPER JET...AND BACKED FLOW AT THE SURFACE.IMPROVED
UPPER SUPPORT BACKED BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAX WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DIVERGENCE/LIFT IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS TO AID CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT DESPITE HEATING LOSS. LONG RIGHT TURNING HODOGRAPHS IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE INDICATIVE OF IMPRESSIVE
SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  BACKED FLOW AT THE SURFACE COULD SUPPORT
TORNADOGENESIS WITHIN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THUS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED AND
SHORT LIVED TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IN ADDITION...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORTIVE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO ANY OF THE STRONGER CELLS THROUGH THE FIRST
12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT.  WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL LIKELY
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
BEHIND THE FROPA OVERNIGHT.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK
AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO CENTRAL NC AND THE MIDLANDS OF SC.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FEATURED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED EVENING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NE AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NE GA BY LATE WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NE WED NIGHT THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED DPVA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NC. THE SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST NUMEROPUS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE NW FLOW WILL
ENHANCE LIFT. A FEW NW FLOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THU MORNING OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NW WITH CLEARING COMMENCING DURING THU. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WARMING TO NEAR
CLIMO ON FRIDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD NEAR NORMAL BY
CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN TRANSITION
EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE OVER THE AREA SAT INTO
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL EAST TO THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE MONDAY NIGHT FRONT
MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHRA WILL PRECEDE A LATE EVENING
FROPA...WITH INTENSE TSRA EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ITSELF.
THE VERY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW ALOFT IMPLIES SOME THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THESE TSRA. BRISK SWLY GUSTS ARE LIKELY EVEN
OUTSIDE TSRA UNTIL AFTER THE FROPA. THE FRONT/S PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS OCCLUDED AND THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ONLY BE
SUBTLE...AND NOT IMMEDIATELY BRINGING DRYING/CLEARING. IN FACT WITH
A MIDLEVEL INVERSION AN MVFR LEVEL DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TRAPPED
AND PERSIST THRU DAYBREAK. WET SOILS AND LIGHTER WINDS NEAR DAYBREAK
ARE LIKELY TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM. IF WINDS CALM MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED NEAR DAYBREAK DENSE FOG OR LOW STRATUS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE DAY AS
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLS BACK IN ACRS
THE AREA.

ELSEWHERE...INTENSE CONVECTION INVOF COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
SITES THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT KAND WHERE THE LINE HAS ALREADY PUSHED
THROUGH. AS AT KCLT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A WIND SHIFT OR
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING POST FROPA. THE TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS IFR VSBY...WITH LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS
RETURNING AFTER THEY DEPART. SOME MVFR FOG LIKELY ACRS THE AREA NEAR
DAYBREAK...THOUGH KAVL IS EXPECTED TO GO LIFR. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR AND POSSIBLY BREAK UP IN PLACES...BUT INCREASING CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING
OCCLUDED LOW.

OUTLOOK...GRADUAL DRYING WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  84%     HIGH  85%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     MED   79%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     MED   76%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  86%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-048>050-
     053-064-065-501>506.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501-503-505.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ002.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
912 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NE HENDERSONVILLE     35.38N 82.41W
10/14/2014                   HENDERSON          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            CLEAR CREEK OVERRAN ITS BANK AND FLOODED FRUITLAND ROAD.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
914 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S HENDERSONVILLE      35.31N 82.46W
10/14/2014                   HENDERSON          NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOUTH KING AND SOUTH GROVE STREETS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING
            FROM MUD CREEK.

&&

KRENTZ

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