Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

July 28, 20148 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 28, 2014, 1:15 AM EDT for 8 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 60 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jul 28, 2014, 1:15 AM EDT (05:15 UTC)
Expired
Jul 28, 2014, 2:15 AM EDT
In force
60 min
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon

Counties Buncombe County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Transylvania County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jul 28, 1:25 AM EDTTSTM WND DMG2 E Asheville, NCSEVERAL ADDITIONAL TREES DOWN OVER EAST ASHEVILLE FROM LATEST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 10 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 5.3 hours before the alert went out and 231 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2014-07-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1368 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2014-07-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 213 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1368 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-89 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1274 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
213 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
339 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.6
Supercell composite
8.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

596 
WUUS52 KGSP 280515
SVRGSP
NCC021-087-089-099-111-149-161-175-280615-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0261.140728T0515Z-140728T0615Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
115 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  BUNCOMBE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  HENDERSON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  JACKSON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  WESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  POLK COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 215 AM EDT

* AT 115 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
  LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BUSICK TO WAYNESVILLE...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  GRAVEYARD FIELDS AND ROSMAN.
  LOOKING GLASS...I-40 AT HIGHWAY 74...SWANNANOA AND CRUSO.
  BREVARD AND MOUNT PISGAH.
  OLD FORT.
  DUPONT STATE FOREST...ETOWAH...BILTMORE PARK AND AVERY CREEK.
  FAIRVIEW.
  LAUREL PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGING WINDS COULD BLOW DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK 
SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FLOODING OF DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR.
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3574 8206 3520 8205 3520 8238 3521 8239
      3519 8243 3510 8315 3540 8333 3578 8234
      3575 8234 3573 8229 3570 8227 3574 8219
      3577 8216 3579 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 0515Z 266DEG 37KT 3571 8219 3543 8295

$$

HG
1 follow-up statement
799 
WWUS52 KGSP 280548
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NCC021-111-280557-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-140728T0615Z/
BUNCOMBE NC-MCDOWELL NC-
148 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL AND
BUNCOMBE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED SOUTH OF 
THIS AREA.

LAT...LON 3549 8311 3555 8277 3547 8280 3542 8275
      3546 8267 3544 8255 3542 8254 3544 8253
      3547 8242 3546 8237 3550 8233 3546 8225
      3552 8222 3553 8206 3520 8205 3521 8239
      3519 8245 3510 8314 3540 8333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0547Z 337DEG 30KT 3548 8217 3536 8322

$$

NCC087-089-099-149-161-175-280615-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-140728T0615Z/
HAYWOOD NC-HENDERSON NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-POLK NC-RUTHERFORD NC-
JACKSON NC-
148 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON...WEST
CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...POLK...TRANSYLVANIA...HENDERSON AND SOUTHERN
HAYWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM EDT...

AT 144 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM LAKE LURE TO SYLVA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BLACK BALSAM AREA...GRAVEYARD FIELDS...MOUNTAIN HOME AND CULLOWHEE.
  LOOKING GLASS AND ETOWAH.
  LAUREL PARK...LAKE ADGER AND HENDERSONVILLE.
  LAKE GLENVILLE...FLAT ROCK...COLUMBUS AND BREVARD.
  DUPONT STATE FOREST AND LAKE TOXAWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BLOW DOWN SEVERAL TREES AND CAUSE 
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. TAKE SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AS THESE 
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FLOODING OF DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR.
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 8311 3555 8277 3547 8280 3542 8275
      3546 8267 3544 8255 3542 8254 3544 8253
      3547 8242 3546 8237 3550 8233 3546 8225
      3552 8222 3553 8206 3520 8205 3521 8239
      3519 8245 3510 8314 3540 8333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0547Z 337DEG 30KT 3548 8217 3536 8322

$$

HG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 27, 10:26 PM EDT, 2 hours 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 27, 10:26 PM EDT, 2 hours 49 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SRN NC ZONES AND INTO THE ERN UPSTATE. MANY REPORTS HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED OF TREES BLOWN DOWN AND LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS ARE
ORGANIZING IN A PREFRONTAL AREA OF STEEP MLVL LAPSE RATES AND HAVE
TAPPED INTO DCAPE VALUES OVER 1100 J/KG. THERE EXISTS A HIGH AMOUNT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT THE STORMS HAVE MORPHED OUT SUPERCELL
MODE...WITH LOSS OF MLCAPE AND INCREASING LLVL CIN. THERE IS ANOTHER
LINE OF COLD POOL CONVECTION LOCATED OVER NRN TN AND THIS AREA
SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH EXISTING ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN TN...THEN
CROSS THE GSP CWFA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HYDRO ISSUES ARE BECOMING
A CONCERN AND WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE FFG
EXCEEDANCE...WITH RATIOS CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 40-50 PERCENT
ACROSS THE ERN SMOKIES AND THE BALSAMS. POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED INTO
THE CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE UPSTATE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGES
NEEDED TO THE MIN TEMP GRID. QPF AMOUNTS ALSO HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP
ACROSS THE CURRENT MCS TRACK.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...SEVERE STORMS OVER ERN TN ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION AND SUPERCELLUAR STRUCTURE AS THEY APPROACH
THE SMOKIES AND NRN MTN SPINE COUNTIES. STILL...THERE IS ENUF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBO TO HELP MAINTAIN STRONG COLD POOL
OUTFLOWS AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN.
EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE FHILLS TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL COUNT ON THE PREFRONTAL TROF
AXIS TO WARRANT A POP INCREASE AFT 08Z OR SO. POPS WERE THUS ADJ UP
EAST ACROSS THE NC ZONES FROM 08Z THROUGH DAYBREAK.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVEC REMAINS VIGOROUS AND
SEVERE ACROSS ERN TN AND SE/RN KY. BASEBALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN KY AND A FEW TOR WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY MRX AND
JKL. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALIGNED A PREFRONTAL TROF WITH A -8 C H5 COLD
POOL...SOME DISCREET CELLS HAVE ALSO BEEN FORMING...WITH A LONG
LASTING TORNADIC SUPERCELL NOW MOVING INTO SW VA. LOW LEVEL THETA/E
HAS INCREASED THE MOST ACROSS THE WRN NC ZONES THE PAST COUPLE HRS
AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH
THE NEXT UPDATE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 40 KTS JUST WEST OF
THE CWFA ATTM...HOWEVER THIS AREA OF SHEAR WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN
MTNS AFT 22Z. THUS...THE ATMOS WILL BE PRIMED FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THREAT AS THE CONVEC ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 22Z-23Z. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FCST GRIDS WITH MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO SKY AND T/TD. WILL STILL CARRY
THE DMG WIND AND LG HAIL MENTION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
LIKELY CONSOLIDATING INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS THAT WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NC BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THAT IN MIND...STILL EXPECT THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVER OUR AREA TO BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...
ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED TORNADO...
ESPECIALLY IF THE PRE-FRONTAL/DISCRETE SUPERCELL CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST
OF JKL MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO OUR AREA. SEVENTY POPS WILL BE
CONTINUED ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO THE FORECAST SUITE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ANY CONVECTION EAST OF
THE MTNS THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DUE TO A DEVELOPING STRONG WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...STRONG/COLD POOL-DRIVEN CONVECTION OFTEN
/DOES NOT CARE/ ABOUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND SOME OF THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO BLAST
THROUGH THE FHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEGUN TO STEP INTO HIGHER POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN NC THIS
EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE
EVENING...OR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND W RATHER STOUT
W/NW UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH COLD ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TOMORROW...AND THE EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TONIGHT...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO.

MONDAY WILL SEE THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION OVER THE MTNS...WHERE
MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. MEANWHILE...
DESPITE FALLING THICKNESSES...DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS EAST OF THE MTNS. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A POP FORECAST JUST A SHADE BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE AXIS OF A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM ERN ONTARIO SWD INTO SC/GA. COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME AS CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACRS THE INLAND SOUTH. HIGH LLVL RH IS NOTED ON GFS/NAM IN
THE COLD-ADVECTIVE FLOW INTO THE MTNS...REMINISCENT OF THE COOL
SEASON. THE MOIST LAYER IS SO SHALLOW ONLY THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS LOOK TO HAVE ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIP.

H7 HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT AROUND DAYBREAK TUE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THIS CREATES A CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL RESTRICT DEEP
CONVECTION TUE AFTN...BUT THE MAJOR MODELS VARIOUSLY STILL DEVELOP
SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF IN THE FA. BY WED THERE IS LITTLE REAL CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN...BUT THE FLOW REGIME BECOMES VERY WEAK IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE AND MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE INVERSION WEAKENING AS WELL.
A GREATER PROPORTION OF GUIDANCE PRODUCES QPF IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN RECENT POST-FRONTAL
PERFORMANCE. ALSO...GIVEN THE CONTINUED SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES I WILL
CURRENTLY FAVOR THE INVERSION HOLDING FAST. THUS NO QPF IS IN THE
FCST FOR WED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...
TRENDING UPWARD SLIGHTLY FROM TUE TO WED. MIN TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WED MRNG WITH WINDS BEING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROFFING IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WE
WILL REMAIN IN THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
AMOUNT OF DEAMPLIFICATION LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND. COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FCSTS...ITS LOOKING LESS CERTAIN THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER FLOW WILL COMPLETELY CUTOFF THE TROF AND ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE RUN HAS ABOUT HALF
OF THE MEMBERS COMPLETELY CUTTING THE TROF OFF AND HALF MAINTAINING
SOME DEGREE OF TROFFING.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN ON THURS AS BNDRY LYR FLOW REMAINS NLY TO
WEAK AND VRB. BY EARLY FRI...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO VEER THE FLOW
MORE FROM THE EAST TO NE AND MOVE A LARGE PLUME OF DEEPER LYR
MOISTURE OVER THE CWFA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS UPSLOPE POTENTIAL
COUPLED WITH UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE COURTESY OF THE UPPER TROF AND
POSSIBLY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IF IT ACTUALLY DEVELOPS...WILL IMPROVE
OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURE FCST WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR
NOW WILL COUNT ON DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM
OF CURRENT MTN MCS ACTIVITY AND WILL GO GO WITH A TEMPO TSRA AFT 02Z
THRU 06Z. THE LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE/FRONTAL TROF SCHED TO CROSS THE TERMINAL
ARND 08Z OR SO. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENUF TO OFFSET A VSBY
THREAT ARND DAYBREAK. LOW END WIND GUST ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN FROPA.

ELSEWHERE...THE NC TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE BOUTS OF VCTS AND
PERHAPS PREVAILING TSRA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS
COULD BECOME QUITE VARIABLE AND GUSTY WITH ANY NEARBY OUTFLOW.
EXPECT THINGS TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT AFT 03Z THEN PICK BACK UP AS
PREFRONTAL TROF WORKS INTO THE AREA ARND 06Z THROUGH 09Z. NO EARLY
MORNING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TAF SITE AS BL WINDS REMAIN
FAIRLY STRONG. LOW END GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE
MIDDLE OF MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/SBK
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...SBK
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 28, 1:09 AM EDT, 6 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
109 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-290515-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
109 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>014-019-290515-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
109 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE UPSTATE AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. IF
THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER...THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH. EVEN IF THEY DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 27, 10:25 PM EDT, 2 hours 50 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     LIGHTNING        4 SSW GAMEWELL          35.81N 81.63W
07/27/2014                   BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LIGHTNING STRUCK A BARN...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT
            STRUCTURE FIRE. THE BARN IS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION
            OF ANTIOCH ROAD AND ANTHONY DRIVE.

&&

NED
Special weather statement, Jul 27, 11:09 PM EDT, 2 hours 6 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1109 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCZ008-009-280400-
CHEROKEE-YORK-
1109 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT YORK AND EASTERN CHEROKEE
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT...

AT 1109 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF HICKORY GROVE...OR 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GAFFNEY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  HICKORY GROVE...
  YORK...
  NEWPORT...
  ROCK HILL...
  LESSLIE...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN WEAK TREES. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3482 8091 3482 8116 3489 8160 3512 8157
      3512 8104 3509 8106 3506 8106 3505 8104
      3511 8094 3509 8091

HG
Local storm report, Jul 27, 11:12 PM EDT, 2 hours 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1112 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     HAIL             WAYNESVILLE             35.48N 83.00W
07/27/2014  E1.75 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            TIME DETERMINED FROM RADAR DATA. REPORT FROM SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

NED
Special weather statement, Jul 27, 11:25 PM EDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NCZ033-048>050-280415-
AVERY-MADISON-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
1125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT YANCEY...MITCHELL...MADISON AND
AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM EDT...

AT 1124 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BULADEAN TO WHITE PINE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS NEXT ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH BACK INTO THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BULADEAN...
  RAMSEYTOWN...
  NEWLAND...
  INGALLS...
  HOT SPRINGS...
  SPRUCE PINE...

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BLOWING DOWN WEAKENED TREES AND CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3607 8173 3596 8181 3600 8190 3587 8200
      3588 8200 3575 8233 3580 8234 3580 8251
      3569 8282 3579 8297 3594 8290 3593 8281
      3605 8268 3607 8263 3596 8256 3610 8239
      3617 8222 3611 8212 3613 8204 3629 8192

HG
Local storm report, Jul 28, 12:45 AM EDT, 30 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1245 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRING CREEK            35.80N 82.85W
07/28/2014                   MADISON            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES REPORTED DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.THE SPRING
            CREEK AREA HAD THE GREATEST NUMBER OF POWER OUTAGES. TIME
            DETERMINED FROM RADAR DATA.

&&

NED
Special weather statement, Jul 28, 12:58 AM EDT, 17 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1258 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NCZ053-068-501>508-280545-
BUNCOMBE-BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-CLEVELAND-EASTERN
MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-MCDOWELL
MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
1258 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BURKE...SOUTHERN CALDWELL...
NORTHERN RUTHERFORD...MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND AND EAST
CENTRAL BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 145 AM EDT...

AT 1258 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LINVILLE FALLS TO
BLACK MOUNTAIN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE JAMES...
  COLLETTSVILLE...
  THERMAL CITY...
  MORGANTON...
  CEDAR ROCK...
  RUTHERFORD COLLEGE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3596 8181 3600 8178 3597 8133 3592 8135
      3580 8133 3557 8153 3543 8146 3538 8150
      3538 8205 3554 8237 3589 8201 3587 8200
      3589 8198 3591 8198 3592 8195 3600 8189

HG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 27, 8:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPHaywood, Madison, Swain57 min
Jul 27, 8:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPBuncombe, Haywood, Jackson, Madison, Swain63 min
Jul 27, 8:44 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPIredell46 min
Jul 27, 8:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPBuncombe, Henderson, McDowell, Polk, Rutherford, Transylvania56 min
Jul 27, 9:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPGraham, Haywood, Jackson, Swain59 min
Jul 27, 9:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCleveland, Polk, Rutherford65 min
Jul 27, 9:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPHaywood, Henderson, Jackson, Transylvania62 min
Jul 27, 9:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPHaywood, Jackson, Transylvania66 min
Jul 27, 9:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPHaywood, Jackson, Swain62 min
Jul 27, 10:21 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPGaston, Mecklenburg39 min
Jul 27, 10:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPBuncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Transylvania27 min
Jul 27, 11:25 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAvery, Madison, Mitchell, Yancey50 min
Jul 27, 11:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPHaywood, Madison, Yancey57 min
Jul 28, 12:20 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPBuncombe, Haywood, McDowell, Madison, Yancey55 min
Jul 28, 12:40 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPBuncombe, Haywood, Jackson, Madison, Swain65 min
Jul 28, 12:58 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPBurke, Caldwell, McDowell, Rutherford47 min
Jul 28, 1:22 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCatawba38 min
Jul 28, 1:44 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPHaywood, Swain46 min
Jul 28, 2:15 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPHenderson, Polk, Transylvania45 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2014Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.