Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

July 27, 20144 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 27, 2014, 9:28 PM EDT for 4 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 62 min. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jul 27, 2014, 9:28 PM EDT (01:28 UTC)
Expired
Jul 27, 2014, 10:30 PM EDT
In force
62 min
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon

Counties Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Transylvania County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jul 27, 9:35 PM EDTHAIL 1.75Waynesville, NCTIME DETERMINED FROM RADAR DATA. REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA.
Jul 27, 9:38 PM EDTHAIL 0.5Maggie Valley, NC
Jul 27, 9:49 PM EDTHAIL 11 W Waynesville, NCREPORT RECEIVED ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
Jul 27, 10:40 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG3 Nne Waynesville, NCONE LARGE TREE AND NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN NNE OF WAYNESVILLE, NC.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 7 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jul 27, 6:32 PM EDTTornado WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 263 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2014-07-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1368 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2014-07-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 213 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1368 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-89 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1274 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
213 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
339 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.6
Supercell composite
8.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

359 
WUUS52 KGSP 280128
SVRGSP
NCC087-089-099-175-280230-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0253.140728T0128Z-140728T0230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
928 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  HENDERSON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  EAST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 927 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  BALSAM...OR 5 MILES WEST OF WAYNESVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
  40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BLACK BALSAM AREA AND CRUSO.
  GRAVEYARD FIELDS AND MOUNT PISGAH.
  LOOKING GLASS.
  BREVARD.
  ETOWAH AND DUPONT STATE FOREST.
  LAUREL PARK.
  FLAT ROCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ROTATION. IF THE ROTATION 
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...A TORNADO WARNING MAY BE ISSUED. SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3551 8278 3547 8280 3543 8276 3546 8267
      3530 8233 3524 8236 3521 8235 3520 8238
      3521 8239 3518 8242 3516 8255 3512 8263
      3513 8268 3510 8269 3508 8280 3541 8319
      3562 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 298DEG 33KT 3545 8304

$$

HG
1 follow-up statement
686 
WWUS52 KGSP 280144
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
944 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NCC087-089-099-175-280230-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0253.000000T0000Z-140728T0230Z/
HAYWOOD NC-HENDERSON NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-JACKSON NC-
944 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
JACKSON...TRANSYLVANIA...HENDERSON AND SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES
UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

AT 944 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR WAYNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CRUSO AND BLACK BALSAM AREA.
  GRAVEYARD FIELDS AND MOUNT PISGAH.
  LOOKING GLASS.
  BREVARD.
  ETOWAH.
  LAUREL PARK AND DUPONT STATE FOREST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION. IF THE ROTATION CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...A TORNADO WARNING MAY BE ISSUED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLOODING OF DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. DO NOT
DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 8278 3547 8280 3543 8276 3546 8267
      3530 8233 3524 8236 3521 8235 3520 8238
      3521 8239 3518 8242 3516 8255 3512 8263
      3513 8268 3510 8269 3508 8280 3541 8319
      3562 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 298DEG 26KT 3542 8292

$$

HG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 27, 7:47 PM EDT, 1 hour 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 27, 7:47 PM EDT, 1 hour 41 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
747 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...SEVERE STORMS OVER ERN TN ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION AND SUPERCELLUAR STRUCTURE AS THEY APPROACH
THE SMOKIES AND NRN MTN SPINE COUNTIES. STILL...THERE IS ENUF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBO TO HELP MAINTAIN STRONG COLD POOL
OUTFLOWS AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN.
EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE FHILLS TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL COUNT ON THE PREFRONTAL TROF
AXIS TO WARRANT A POP INCREASE AFT 08Z OR SO. POPS WERE THUS ADJ UP
EAST ACROSS THE NC ZONES FROM 08Z THROUGH DAYBREAK.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVEC REMAINS VIGOROUS AND
SEVERE ACROSS ERN TN AND SE/RN KY. BASEBALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN KY AND A FEW TOR WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY MRX AND
JKL. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALIGNED A PREFRONTAL TROF WITH A -8 C H5 COLD
POOL...SOME DISCREET CELLS HAVE ALSO BEEN FORMING...WITH A LONG
LASTING TORNADIC SUPERCELL NOW MOVING INTO SW VA. LOW LEVEL THETA/E
HAS INCREASED THE MOST ACROSS THE WRN NC ZONES THE PAST COUPLE HRS
AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH
THE NEXT UPDATE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 40 KTS JUST WEST OF
THE CWFA ATTM...HOWEVER THIS AREA OF SHEAR WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN
MTNS AFT 22Z. THUS...THE ATMOS WILL BE PRIMED FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THREAT AS THE CONVEC ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 22Z-23Z. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FCST GRIDS WITH MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO SKY AND T/TD. WILL STILL CARRY
THE DMG WIND AND LG HAIL MENTION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
LIKELY CONSOLIDATING INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS THAT WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NC BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THAT IN MIND...STILL EXPECT THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVER OUR AREA TO BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...
ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED TORNADO...
ESPECIALLY IF THE PRE-FRONTAL/DISCRETE SUPERCELL CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST
OF JKL MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO OUR AREA. SEVENTY POPS WILL BE
CONTINUED ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO THE FORECAST SUITE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ANY CONVECTION EAST OF
THE MTNS THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DUE TO A DEVELOPING STRONG WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...STRONG/COLD POOL-DRIVEN CONVECTION OFTEN
/DOES NOT CARE/ ABOUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND SOME OF THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO BLAST
THROUGH THE FHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEGUN TO STEP INTO HIGHER POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN NC THIS
EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE
EVENING...OR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND W RATHER STOUT
W/NW UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH COLD ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TOMORROW...AND THE EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TONIGHT...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO.

MONDAY WILL SEE THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION OVER THE MTNS...WHERE
MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. MEANWHILE...
DESPITE FALLING THICKNESSES...DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS EAST OF THE MTNS. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A POP FORECAST JUST A SHADE BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE AXIS OF A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM ERN ONTARIO SWD INTO SC/GA. COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME AS CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACRS THE INLAND SOUTH. HIGH LLVL RH IS NOTED ON GFS/NAM IN
THE COLD-ADVECTIVE FLOW INTO THE MTNS...REMINISCENT OF THE COOL
SEASON. THE MOIST LAYER IS SO SHALLOW ONLY THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS LOOK TO HAVE ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIP.

H7 HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT AROUND DAYBREAK TUE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THIS CREATES A CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL RESTRICT DEEP
CONVECTION TUE AFTN...BUT THE MAJOR MODELS VARIOUSLY STILL DEVELOP
SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF IN THE FA. BY WED THERE IS LITTLE REAL CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN...BUT THE FLOW REGIME BECOMES VERY WEAK IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE AND MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE INVERSION WEAKENING AS WELL.
A GREATER PROPORTION OF GUIDANCE PRODUCES QPF IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN RECENT POST-FRONTAL
PERFORMANCE. ALSO...GIVEN THE CONTINUED SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES I WILL
CURRENTLY FAVOR THE INVERSION HOLDING FAST. THUS NO QPF IS IN THE
FCST FOR WED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...
TRENDING UPWARD SLIGHTLY FROM TUE TO WED. MIN TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WED MRNG WITH WINDS BEING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROFFING IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WE
WILL REMAIN IN THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
AMOUNT OF DEAMPLIFICATION LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND. COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FCSTS...ITS LOOKING LESS CERTAIN THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER FLOW WILL COMPLETELY CUTOFF THE TROF AND ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE RUN HAS ABOUT HALF
OF THE MEMBERS COMPLETELY CUTTING THE TROF OFF AND HALF MAINTAINING
SOME DEGREE OF TROFFING.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN ON THURS AS BNDRY LYR FLOW REMAINS NLY TO
WEAK AND VRB. BY EARLY FRI...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO VEER THE FLOW
MORE FROM THE EAST TO NE AND MOVE A LARGE PLUME OF DEEPER LYR
MOISTURE OVER THE CWFA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS UPSLOPE POTENTIAL
COUPLED WITH UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE COURTESY OF THE UPPER TROF AND
POSSIBLY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IF IT ACTUALLY DEVELOPS...WILL IMPROVE
OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURE FCST WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR
NOW WILL COUNT ON DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM
OF CURRENT MTN MCS ACTIVITY AND WILL GO GO WITH A TEMPO TSRA AFT 02Z
THRU 06Z. THE LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE/FRONTAL TROF SCHED TO CROSS THE TERMINAL
ARND 08Z OR SO. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENUF TO OFFSET A VSBY
THREAT ARND DAYBREAK. LOW END WIND GUST ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN FROPA.

ELSEWHERE...THE NC TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE BOUTS OF VCTS AND
PERHAPS PREVAILING TSRA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS
COULD BECOME QUITE VARIABLE AND GUSTY WITH ANY NEARBY OUTFLOW.
EXPECT THINGS TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT AFT 03Z THEN PICK BACK UP AS
PREFRONTAL TROF WORKS INTO THE AREA ARND 06Z THROUGH 09Z. NO EARLY
MORNING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TAF SITE AS BL WINDS REMAIN
FAIRLY STRONG. LOW END GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE
MIDDLE OF MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/SBK
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...SBK
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 27, 6:38 PM EDT, 2 hours 50 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
638 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NCZ033-048>050-053-501>506-282245-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-
638 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 448 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE
INTO A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...LIKELY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
BY VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE
AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR
OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-051-052-056>059-062>065-507>510-282245-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
638 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 448 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE
GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE NORTH OF I-40. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED
FOR ALL OR A PART OF THIS AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ082-SCZ001>014-019-282245-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
638 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM EAST TENNESSEE BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT WILL SURVIVE THE TRIP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SO THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...IF THE LINE OF STORMS DOES
MAKE IT THAT FAR...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. PEOPLE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ068>072-282245-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
638 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 448 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM EAST TENNESSEE BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT WILL SURVIVE THE TRIP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SO THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...IF THE LINE OF STORMS DOES
MAKE IT THAT FAR...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. PEOPLE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 27, 8:46 PM EDT, 42 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
846 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     TSTM WND GST     ASHEVILLE               35.57N 82.55W
07/27/2014  E0 MPH           BUNCOMBE           NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE ESTIMATES WIND IN DOWNTOWN
            ASHEVILLE GUSTING TO 70 MPH.

&&

LGL
Local storm report, Jul 27, 8:54 PM EDT, 34 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
854 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ASHEVILLE               35.57N 82.55W
07/27/2014                   BUNCOMBE           NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN ASHEVILLE VICINITY... INCLUDING
            CEDAR LANE AND OLD BUNCOMBE HIGHWAY.

&&

LGL
Local storm report, Jul 27, 9:00 PM EDT, 28 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
900 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE SUNBURST          35.46N 82.90W
07/27/2014                   HAYWOOD            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN BLOCKING CHAMBERS FARM ROAD AND
            FINES CREEK ROAD. TIME DETERMINED FROM RADAR DATA.

&&

NED
Local storm report, Jul 27, 9:01 PM EDT, 27 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
901 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND GST     CANDLER                 35.54N 82.69W
07/27/2014  E50 MPH          BUNCOMBE           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE POWER OUTAGES. RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
            PER HOUR AT MONTE VISTA ROAD AND DANIEL RIDGE ROAD

&&

LGL
Local storm report, Jul 27, 9:07 PM EDT, 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
907 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E FLETCHER            35.44N 82.47W
07/27/2014                   HENDERSON          NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE AND POWERLINE DOWN NEAR APPLE BLOSSOM PARK DRIVE.
            POWER REPORTED OUT IN THE FLETCHER AND ARDEN AREAS.

&&

NED
Local storm report, Jul 27, 9:24 PM EDT, 4 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
924 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAYNESVILLE             35.48N 83.00W
07/27/2014                   HAYWOOD            NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL WIND DAMAGE REPORTS FROM HAYWOOD COUNTY. 849 PM
            TREE DOWN ON RATCLIFF COVE ROAD. 850 PM TREE DOWN AT
            CRUSO ROAD AND HARVEST LANE. 905 PM TREES ON POWER LINES
            ON COUNTY ROAD. REPORTS FROM WRGC IN SYLVA.

&&

LGL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 27, 8:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPHaywood, Madison, Swain57 min
Jul 27, 8:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPBuncombe, Haywood, Jackson, Madison, Swain63 min
Jul 27, 8:44 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPIredell46 min
Jul 27, 8:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPBuncombe, Henderson, McDowell, Polk, Rutherford, Transylvania56 min
Jul 27, 9:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPGraham, Haywood, Jackson, Swain59 min
Jul 27, 9:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCleveland, Polk, Rutherford65 min
Jul 27, 9:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPHaywood, Jackson, Transylvania66 min
Jul 27, 9:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPHaywood, Jackson, Swain62 min
Jul 27, 10:21 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPGaston, Mecklenburg39 min
Jul 27, 10:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPBuncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Transylvania27 min
Jul 27, 11:25 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAvery, Madison, Mitchell, Yancey50 min
Jul 27, 11:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPHaywood, Madison, Yancey57 min
Jul 28, 12:20 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPBuncombe, Haywood, McDowell, Madison, Yancey55 min
Jul 28, 12:40 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPBuncombe, Haywood, Jackson, Madison, Swain65 min
Jul 28, 12:58 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPBurke, Caldwell, McDowell, Rutherford47 min
Jul 28, 1:15 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPBuncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, McDowell, Polk and 2 more60 min
Jul 28, 1:22 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCatawba38 min
Jul 28, 1:44 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPHaywood, Swain46 min
Jul 28, 2:15 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPHenderson, Polk, Transylvania45 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2014Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.