Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SRN NC ZONES AND INTO THE ERN UPSTATE. MANY REPORTS HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED OF TREES BLOWN DOWN AND LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS ARE
ORGANIZING IN A PREFRONTAL AREA OF STEEP MLVL LAPSE RATES AND HAVE
TAPPED INTO DCAPE VALUES OVER 1100 J/KG. THERE EXISTS A HIGH AMOUNT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT THE STORMS HAVE MORPHED OUT SUPERCELL
MODE...WITH LOSS OF MLCAPE AND INCREASING LLVL CIN. THERE IS ANOTHER
LINE OF COLD POOL CONVECTION LOCATED OVER NRN TN AND THIS AREA
SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH EXISTING ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN TN...THEN
CROSS THE GSP CWFA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HYDRO ISSUES ARE BECOMING
A CONCERN AND WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE FFG
EXCEEDANCE...WITH RATIOS CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 40-50 PERCENT
ACROSS THE ERN SMOKIES AND THE BALSAMS. POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED INTO
THE CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE UPSTATE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGES
NEEDED TO THE MIN TEMP GRID. QPF AMOUNTS ALSO HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP
ACROSS THE CURRENT MCS TRACK.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...SEVERE STORMS OVER ERN TN ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION AND SUPERCELLUAR STRUCTURE AS THEY APPROACH
THE SMOKIES AND NRN MTN SPINE COUNTIES. STILL...THERE IS ENUF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBO TO HELP MAINTAIN STRONG COLD POOL
OUTFLOWS AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN.
EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE FHILLS TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL COUNT ON THE PREFRONTAL TROF
AXIS TO WARRANT A POP INCREASE AFT 08Z OR SO. POPS WERE THUS ADJ UP
EAST ACROSS THE NC ZONES FROM 08Z THROUGH DAYBREAK.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVEC REMAINS VIGOROUS AND
SEVERE ACROSS ERN TN AND SE/RN KY. BASEBALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN KY AND A FEW TOR WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY MRX AND
JKL. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALIGNED A PREFRONTAL TROF WITH A -8 C H5 COLD
POOL...SOME DISCREET CELLS HAVE ALSO BEEN FORMING...WITH A LONG
LASTING TORNADIC SUPERCELL NOW MOVING INTO SW VA. LOW LEVEL THETA/E
HAS INCREASED THE MOST ACROSS THE WRN NC ZONES THE PAST COUPLE HRS
AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH
THE NEXT UPDATE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 40 KTS JUST WEST OF
THE CWFA ATTM...HOWEVER THIS AREA OF SHEAR WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN
MTNS AFT 22Z. THUS...THE ATMOS WILL BE PRIMED FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THREAT AS THE CONVEC ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 22Z-23Z. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FCST GRIDS WITH MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO SKY AND T/TD. WILL STILL CARRY
THE DMG WIND AND LG HAIL MENTION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
LIKELY CONSOLIDATING INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS THAT WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NC BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THAT IN MIND...STILL EXPECT THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVER OUR AREA TO BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...
ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED TORNADO...
ESPECIALLY IF THE PRE-FRONTAL/DISCRETE SUPERCELL CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST
OF JKL MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO OUR AREA. SEVENTY POPS WILL BE
CONTINUED ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO THE FORECAST SUITE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ANY CONVECTION EAST OF
THE MTNS THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DUE TO A DEVELOPING STRONG WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...STRONG/COLD POOL-DRIVEN CONVECTION OFTEN
/DOES NOT CARE/ ABOUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND SOME OF THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO BLAST
THROUGH THE FHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEGUN TO STEP INTO HIGHER POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN NC THIS
EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE
EVENING...OR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND W RATHER STOUT
W/NW UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH COLD ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TOMORROW...AND THE EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TONIGHT...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO.

MONDAY WILL SEE THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION OVER THE MTNS...WHERE
MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. MEANWHILE...
DESPITE FALLING THICKNESSES...DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS EAST OF THE MTNS. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A POP FORECAST JUST A SHADE BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE AXIS OF A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM ERN ONTARIO SWD INTO SC/GA. COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME AS CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACRS THE INLAND SOUTH. HIGH LLVL RH IS NOTED ON GFS/NAM IN
THE COLD-ADVECTIVE FLOW INTO THE MTNS...REMINISCENT OF THE COOL
SEASON. THE MOIST LAYER IS SO SHALLOW ONLY THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS LOOK TO HAVE ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIP.

H7 HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT AROUND DAYBREAK TUE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THIS CREATES A CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL RESTRICT DEEP
CONVECTION TUE AFTN...BUT THE MAJOR MODELS VARIOUSLY STILL DEVELOP
SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF IN THE FA. BY WED THERE IS LITTLE REAL CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN...BUT THE FLOW REGIME BECOMES VERY WEAK IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE AND MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE INVERSION WEAKENING AS WELL.
A GREATER PROPORTION OF GUIDANCE PRODUCES QPF IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN RECENT POST-FRONTAL
PERFORMANCE. ALSO...GIVEN THE CONTINUED SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES I WILL
CURRENTLY FAVOR THE INVERSION HOLDING FAST. THUS NO QPF IS IN THE
FCST FOR WED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...
TRENDING UPWARD SLIGHTLY FROM TUE TO WED. MIN TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WED MRNG WITH WINDS BEING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROFFING IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WE
WILL REMAIN IN THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
AMOUNT OF DEAMPLIFICATION LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND. COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FCSTS...ITS LOOKING LESS CERTAIN THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER FLOW WILL COMPLETELY CUTOFF THE TROF AND ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE RUN HAS ABOUT HALF
OF THE MEMBERS COMPLETELY CUTTING THE TROF OFF AND HALF MAINTAINING
SOME DEGREE OF TROFFING.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN ON THURS AS BNDRY LYR FLOW REMAINS NLY TO
WEAK AND VRB. BY EARLY FRI...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO VEER THE FLOW
MORE FROM THE EAST TO NE AND MOVE A LARGE PLUME OF DEEPER LYR
MOISTURE OVER THE CWFA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS UPSLOPE POTENTIAL
COUPLED WITH UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE COURTESY OF THE UPPER TROF AND
POSSIBLY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IF IT ACTUALLY DEVELOPS...WILL IMPROVE
OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURE FCST WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR
NOW WILL COUNT ON DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM
OF CURRENT MTN MCS ACTIVITY AND WILL GO GO WITH A TEMPO TSRA AFT 02Z
THRU 06Z. THE LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE/FRONTAL TROF SCHED TO CROSS THE TERMINAL
ARND 08Z OR SO. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENUF TO OFFSET A VSBY
THREAT ARND DAYBREAK. LOW END WIND GUST ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN FROPA.

ELSEWHERE...THE NC TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE BOUTS OF VCTS AND
PERHAPS PREVAILING TSRA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS
COULD BECOME QUITE VARIABLE AND GUSTY WITH ANY NEARBY OUTFLOW.
EXPECT THINGS TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT AFT 03Z THEN PICK BACK UP AS
PREFRONTAL TROF WORKS INTO THE AREA ARND 06Z THROUGH 09Z. NO EARLY
MORNING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TAF SITE AS BL WINDS REMAIN
FAIRLY STRONG. LOW END GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE
MIDDLE OF MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/SBK
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...SBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
638 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NCZ033-048>050-053-501>506-282245-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-
638 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 448 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE
INTO A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...LIKELY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
BY VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE
AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR
OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-051-052-056>059-062>065-507>510-282245-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
638 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 448 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE
GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE NORTH OF I-40. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED
FOR ALL OR A PART OF THIS AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ082-SCZ001>014-019-282245-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
638 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM EAST TENNESSEE BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT WILL SURVIVE THE TRIP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SO THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...IF THE LINE OF STORMS DOES
MAKE IT THAT FAR...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. PEOPLE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ068>072-282245-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
638 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 448 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM EAST TENNESSEE BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT WILL SURVIVE THE TRIP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SO THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...IF THE LINE OF STORMS DOES
MAKE IT THAT FAR...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. PEOPLE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     LIGHTNING        4 SSW GAMEWELL          35.81N 81.63W
07/27/2014                   BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LIGHTNING STRUCK A BARN...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT
            STRUCTURE FIRE. THE BARN IS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION
            OF ANTIOCH ROAD AND ANTHONY DRIVE.

&&

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1109 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCZ008-009-280400-
CHEROKEE-YORK-
1109 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT YORK AND EASTERN CHEROKEE
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT...

AT 1109 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF HICKORY GROVE...OR 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GAFFNEY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  HICKORY GROVE...
  YORK...
  NEWPORT...
  ROCK HILL...
  LESSLIE...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN WEAK TREES. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3482 8091 3482 8116 3489 8160 3512 8157
      3512 8104 3509 8106 3506 8106 3505 8104
      3511 8094 3509 8091

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1112 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     HAIL             WAYNESVILLE             35.48N 83.00W
07/27/2014  E1.75 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            TIME DETERMINED FROM RADAR DATA. REPORT FROM SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NCZ033-048>050-280415-
AVERY-MADISON-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
1125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT YANCEY...MITCHELL...MADISON AND
AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM EDT...

AT 1124 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BULADEAN TO WHITE PINE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS NEXT ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH BACK INTO THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BULADEAN...
  RAMSEYTOWN...
  NEWLAND...
  INGALLS...
  HOT SPRINGS...
  SPRUCE PINE...

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BLOWING DOWN WEAKENED TREES AND CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3607 8173 3596 8181 3600 8190 3587 8200
      3588 8200 3575 8233 3580 8234 3580 8251
      3569 8282 3579 8297 3594 8290 3593 8281
      3605 8268 3607 8263 3596 8256 3610 8239
      3617 8222 3611 8212 3613 8204 3629 8192

HG