Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
747 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...SEVERE STORMS OVER ERN TN ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION AND SUPERCELLUAR STRUCTURE AS THEY APPROACH
THE SMOKIES AND NRN MTN SPINE COUNTIES. STILL...THERE IS ENUF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBO TO HELP MAINTAIN STRONG COLD POOL
OUTFLOWS AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN.
EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE FHILLS TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL COUNT ON THE PREFRONTAL TROF
AXIS TO WARRANT A POP INCREASE AFT 08Z OR SO. POPS WERE THUS ADJ UP
EAST ACROSS THE NC ZONES FROM 08Z THROUGH DAYBREAK.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVEC REMAINS VIGOROUS AND
SEVERE ACROSS ERN TN AND SE/RN KY. BASEBALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN KY AND A FEW TOR WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY MRX AND
JKL. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALIGNED A PREFRONTAL TROF WITH A -8 C H5 COLD
POOL...SOME DISCREET CELLS HAVE ALSO BEEN FORMING...WITH A LONG
LASTING TORNADIC SUPERCELL NOW MOVING INTO SW VA. LOW LEVEL THETA/E
HAS INCREASED THE MOST ACROSS THE WRN NC ZONES THE PAST COUPLE HRS
AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH
THE NEXT UPDATE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 40 KTS JUST WEST OF
THE CWFA ATTM...HOWEVER THIS AREA OF SHEAR WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN
MTNS AFT 22Z. THUS...THE ATMOS WILL BE PRIMED FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THREAT AS THE CONVEC ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 22Z-23Z. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FCST GRIDS WITH MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO SKY AND T/TD. WILL STILL CARRY
THE DMG WIND AND LG HAIL MENTION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
LIKELY CONSOLIDATING INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS THAT WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NC BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THAT IN MIND...STILL EXPECT THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVER OUR AREA TO BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...
ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED TORNADO...
ESPECIALLY IF THE PRE-FRONTAL/DISCRETE SUPERCELL CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST
OF JKL MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO OUR AREA. SEVENTY POPS WILL BE
CONTINUED ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO THE FORECAST SUITE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ANY CONVECTION EAST OF
THE MTNS THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DUE TO A DEVELOPING STRONG WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...STRONG/COLD POOL-DRIVEN CONVECTION OFTEN
/DOES NOT CARE/ ABOUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND SOME OF THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO BLAST
THROUGH THE FHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEGUN TO STEP INTO HIGHER POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN NC THIS
EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE
EVENING...OR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND W RATHER STOUT
W/NW UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH COLD ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TOMORROW...AND THE EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TONIGHT...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO.

MONDAY WILL SEE THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION OVER THE MTNS...WHERE
MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. MEANWHILE...
DESPITE FALLING THICKNESSES...DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS EAST OF THE MTNS. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A POP FORECAST JUST A SHADE BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE AXIS OF A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM ERN ONTARIO SWD INTO SC/GA. COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME AS CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACRS THE INLAND SOUTH. HIGH LLVL RH IS NOTED ON GFS/NAM IN
THE COLD-ADVECTIVE FLOW INTO THE MTNS...REMINISCENT OF THE COOL
SEASON. THE MOIST LAYER IS SO SHALLOW ONLY THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS LOOK TO HAVE ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIP.

H7 HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT AROUND DAYBREAK TUE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THIS CREATES A CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL RESTRICT DEEP
CONVECTION TUE AFTN...BUT THE MAJOR MODELS VARIOUSLY STILL DEVELOP
SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF IN THE FA. BY WED THERE IS LITTLE REAL CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN...BUT THE FLOW REGIME BECOMES VERY WEAK IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE AND MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE INVERSION WEAKENING AS WELL.
A GREATER PROPORTION OF GUIDANCE PRODUCES QPF IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN RECENT POST-FRONTAL
PERFORMANCE. ALSO...GIVEN THE CONTINUED SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES I WILL
CURRENTLY FAVOR THE INVERSION HOLDING FAST. THUS NO QPF IS IN THE
FCST FOR WED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...
TRENDING UPWARD SLIGHTLY FROM TUE TO WED. MIN TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WED MRNG WITH WINDS BEING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROFFING IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WE
WILL REMAIN IN THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
AMOUNT OF DEAMPLIFICATION LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND. COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FCSTS...ITS LOOKING LESS CERTAIN THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER FLOW WILL COMPLETELY CUTOFF THE TROF AND ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE RUN HAS ABOUT HALF
OF THE MEMBERS COMPLETELY CUTTING THE TROF OFF AND HALF MAINTAINING
SOME DEGREE OF TROFFING.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN ON THURS AS BNDRY LYR FLOW REMAINS NLY TO
WEAK AND VRB. BY EARLY FRI...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO VEER THE FLOW
MORE FROM THE EAST TO NE AND MOVE A LARGE PLUME OF DEEPER LYR
MOISTURE OVER THE CWFA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS UPSLOPE POTENTIAL
COUPLED WITH UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE COURTESY OF THE UPPER TROF AND
POSSIBLY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IF IT ACTUALLY DEVELOPS...WILL IMPROVE
OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURE FCST WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR
NOW WILL COUNT ON DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM
OF CURRENT MTN MCS ACTIVITY AND WILL GO GO WITH A TEMPO TSRA AFT 02Z
THRU 06Z. THE LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE/FRONTAL TROF SCHED TO CROSS THE TERMINAL
ARND 08Z OR SO. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENUF TO OFFSET A VSBY
THREAT ARND DAYBREAK. LOW END WIND GUST ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN FROPA.

ELSEWHERE...THE NC TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE BOUTS OF VCTS AND
PERHAPS PREVAILING TSRA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS
COULD BECOME QUITE VARIABLE AND GUSTY WITH ANY NEARBY OUTFLOW.
EXPECT THINGS TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT AFT 03Z THEN PICK BACK UP AS
PREFRONTAL TROF WORKS INTO THE AREA ARND 06Z THROUGH 09Z. NO EARLY
MORNING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TAF SITE AS BL WINDS REMAIN
FAIRLY STRONG. LOW END GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE
MIDDLE OF MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/SBK
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...SBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
638 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NCZ033-048>050-053-501>506-282245-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-
638 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 448 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE
INTO A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...LIKELY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
BY VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE
AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR
OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-051-052-056>059-062>065-507>510-282245-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
638 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 448 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE
GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE NORTH OF I-40. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED
FOR ALL OR A PART OF THIS AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ082-SCZ001>014-019-282245-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
638 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM EAST TENNESSEE BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT WILL SURVIVE THE TRIP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SO THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...IF THE LINE OF STORMS DOES
MAKE IT THAT FAR...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. PEOPLE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ068>072-282245-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
638 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 448 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM EAST TENNESSEE BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT WILL SURVIVE THE TRIP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SO THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...IF THE LINE OF STORMS DOES
MAKE IT THAT FAR...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. PEOPLE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
505 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NCZ033-049-050-272200-
AVERY-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
505 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POISED TO MAKE A RUN AT THE NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AFTER 6 PM EDT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WAS INDICATED ON RADAR MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
AT 55 MPH TOWARD EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AFTER 6
PM...ESPECIALLY NEAR AVERY COUNTY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE OVER SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND KENTUCKY.

IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. EVEN IF THIS INITIAL ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENS...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ARRIVE LATER THIS
EVENING. RESIDENTS AND TRAVELERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ACCESS TO A STURDY SHELTER IN CASE ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WARNINGS ARE NEEDED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

LAT...LON 3628 8189 3621 8190 3619 8184 3611 8180
      3607 8173 3602 8176 3597 8184 3600 8190
      3589 8198 3583 8213 3574 8219 3570 8227
      3600 8248 3610 8239 3614 8225 3617 8222
      3615 8215 3611 8212 3613 8204 3629 8192

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
553 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NCZ033-050-272245-
AVERY-MITCHELL-
553 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MITCHELL AND
AVERY COUNTIES BETWEEN 630 AND 700 PM EDT...

AT 550 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF JOHNSON CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  NEWLAND...

THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY WELL BE NEEDED IF
THE STORM SURVIVES INTO UNICOI AND CARTER COUNTIES TO THE WEST.
PREPARE TO TAKE SHELTER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3621 8190 3619 8184 3611 8180 3607 8173
      3596 8181 3600 8190 3588 8199 3588 8203
      3586 8204 3582 8214 3591 8215 3601 8219
      3601 8225 3599 8225 3604 8230 3603 8233
      3611 8237 3617 8220 3611 8208 3629 8190

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NCZ501-502-272345-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
651 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CALDWELL COUNTY
THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

AT 650 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR SEVEN DEVILS...OR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NEWLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...SOME
WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IF IT DOES
NOT WEAKEN...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  GLOBE...
  COLLETTSVILLE...
  PATTERSON...
  CEDAR ROCK...
  GRANITE FALLS...

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT
ARE WEAKENED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IN ADVANCE OF THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3608 8142 3602 8133 3594 8134 3577 8142
      3579 8145 3578 8156 3583 8160 3582 8162
      3589 8173 3593 8175 3593 8178 3597 8180
      3607 8173 3612 8180 3613 8155

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
720 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NCZ048-051-052-058-280030-
GRAHAM-HAYWOOD-MADISON-SWAIN-
720 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SWAIN...MADISON...HAYWOOD AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES BETWEEN 800 AND 900 PM EDT...

AT 718 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF
GREENEVILLE TENNEESSEE TO DANDRIDGE TO KNOXVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. WARNINGS COULD BE NEEDED IF THESE STORMS HOLD
TOGETHER INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 100 AM EDT.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  TAPOCO...
  HOT SPRINGS...
  SANTEETLAH LAKE...
  FONTANA LAKE...
  STECOAH...
  CLINGMANS DOME...

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3541 8403 3553 8388 3557 8349 3577 8315
      3578 8299 3594 8291 3593 8281 3606 8266
      3598 8251 3586 8242 3581 8243 3567 8289
      3557 8277 3547 8280 3541 8304 3552 8324
      3546 8336 3533 8336 3524 8373 3524 8401

HG