Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE HAS SURGED THROUGH BOWIE AND BRIDGEPORT BUT REMAINS WELL
WEST OF COMANCHE AND GOLDTHWAITE. THE BULGE HAS HELPED MAXIMIZE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHERE THE INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS
DEVELOPED. DESPITE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. MID-AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES HAVE EXCEEDED 3000J/KG...
AND NEW UPDRAFTS ROOTED IN THIS VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
QUICKLY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN
SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY IN THE MID-LEVELS...THERE REMAINS AMPLE DRY
AIR TO ENHANCE THE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE INITIAL STORMS...HIGH LCLS AND VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL TEND TO REDUCE THE TORNADO THREAT. ALTHOUGH THE
DRYLINE WILL ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO GRADUALLY SEPARATE FROM THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORS ROTATING UPDRAFTS. AND WITH
DISCRETE CELLS IN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST...EVEN WITHOUT
THE AID OF NEAR-BOUNDARY MECHANICS.

HOWEVER...INHIBITION REMAINS FARTHER EAST AND MAY PREVENT DEEP
CONVECTION FROM INITIATING FAR IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS
COULD KEEP THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL REMAIN
WELL SEPARATED FROM THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...
RELATIVELY QUIET UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND WILL EVENTUALLY OVERWHELM THE LINGERING
DRYLINE THIS EVENING...INCREASING STORM CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST TEXAS. WITH THIS SURFACE FOCUS... DISCRETE CELLS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR MCS...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
WIND THREAT WHILE DIMINISHING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES.

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER HAS PREVAILED MUCH OF THE WEEK...BUT FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
TEMPERATURES MAY DIP INTO THE 30S IN NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS ARE MARGINAL FOR FROST...ANYONE
CONCERNED ABOUT SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE
FORECAST.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL CREEP SLOWLY
TOWARD TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN STREAMING
OVER THE COOL SURFACE LAYER ON SATURDAY WHEN RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WHEN GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AT 850MB.
PROGGED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COOL SURFACE LAYER WOULD RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD RAIN. A 40 POP ON DAY 4 SHOWS MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN OCCURRING...BUT THIS IS UNLIKELY TO YIELD THE
COPIOUS RAINFALL THAT THE DROUGHT-PLAGUED REGION NEEDS. HOWEVER...
A SLOW/GENTLE RAIN AND LIMITED EVAPORATION WILL ALLOW THE TOPSOIL
TO MAKE THE MOST OF WHAT DOES FALL. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE
ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DAMP DAY FOR APRIL.

THE TROUGH WILL PASS EAST AROUND MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE
RAIN CHANCES. REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
RETURNING TO NORMAL UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  67  45  67  48 /  20   0   0  20  20
WACO, TX              50  70  44  68  48 /  30   0   0  20  30
PARIS, TX             48  65  41  65  46 /  70   0   0  10  20
DENTON, TX            45  67  42  65  46 /  20   0   0  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          46  67  40  65  46 /  20   0   0  10  20
DALLAS, TX            49  68  46  66  48 /  20   0   0  20  20
TERRELL, TX           50  67  43  65  47 /  50   0   0  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         51  68  45  66  48 /  50   0   0  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            50  70  44  66  49 /  30   0   0  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     43  69  40  66  46 /   5   0   0  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-100>102-
115>117-129>132-141.

&&

09/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-041230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
324 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE RISK AREA IS EAST OF A
LINE FROM ST JO TO MINERAL WELLS TO COMANCHE...AND INCLUDES THE
DFW METROPLEX AND THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM NOCONA...TO
GLEN ROSE...TO COMANCHE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED IN SOME AREAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

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