Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THE TERMINAL FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THAT MAY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE FIRST 6-8 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

DRYLINE WAS STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE THIS MORNING AND AT
MIDDAY EXTENDED FROM NEAR BOWIE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTLAND COUNTY.
THE DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP INTO THE DFW METROPLEX REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT
THAT TIME. ANY STORM THAT AFFECTS THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS FROM
19Z TO 23Z AT ALL OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES.

FOR KACT...THE FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE AT THE METROPLEX
EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING
NORTH WINDS AT 16-18 KTS BEGINNING AROUND 04Z IN THE METROPLEX AND
AROUND 06Z AT KACT. 09/GP

&&

.UPDATE...
THE VIGOROUS MORNING CONVECTION HAS EXITED INTO OKLAHOMA...BUT
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED (ALBEIT MORE BENIGN) ACTIVITY CONTINUES WITHIN
NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DESPITE STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO
MATCH THE INTENSITY OF THE EARLIER HAIL-PRODUCING STORMS. BASED ON
THE BLOSSOMING COMPLEX IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...
AN UNRESOLVED MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF VORTICITY IS LIKELY NOW
DOWNSTREAM OF NORTH TEXAS. AS A RESULT...THIS LULL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION INITIATES THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE 12Z FWD RAOB SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION...AND
RECENT AMDAR DATA CONFIRM THAT THE LID ON THE UNSTABLE SURFACE
LAYER REMAINS INTACT. A CAP OF THIS STRENGTH IS UNLIKELY TO BE
BROKEN THROUGH SURFACE HEATING ALONE AND WILL REQUIRE BOTH
MECHANICAL LIFTING OF THE SURFACE LAYER AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFTING
OF THE INVERSION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
AT 1030 AM...A DRYLINE STRETCHED FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS TO WEST
OF ABILENE. WINDS ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY HAVE VEERED AND
STRENGTHENED...AND THE DRYLINE WILL PENETRATE DEEPER INTO NORTH
TEXAS TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS THIS WEEK. A SOUTHWESTERLY MID-
LEVEL JET FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN A
FASTER PUSH ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE...PIVOTING
THE BOUNDARY CLOCKWISE. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW ALOFT...
THIS ORIENTATION WILL REDUCE THE CROSS-BOUNDARY COMPONENT...AND
THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SLOW OR EVEN STALL. THIS MAY DELAY THE
ONSET OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WHICH MAY ALSO BE
FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THE MID-MORNING UPDATE
ADDRESSES THIS...MAINTAINING THE THREAT OF STORMS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTRODUCING ISOLATED
POTENTIAL AS FAR WEST AS BOWIE...MINERAL WELLS...AND COMANCHE.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG/EAST OF A BONHAM
TO KILLEEN LINE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

AT 08 UTC...A DRYLINE WAS LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS GENERALLY FROM
WEST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA TO EAST OF LUBBOCK TO EAST OF MIDLAND WHILE
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
KS/OK BORDER. ALOFT...A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM
NORTH DAKOTA TO EASTERN ARIZONA.

THESE FEATURES WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING 3 TO 5 PM ALONG THE DRYLINE...GENERALLY
ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM BONHAM TO KILLEEN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE 2000+ J/KG CAPE...25 TO 35 KNOTS
OF BULK SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES....THUS LARGE HAIL
TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WHERE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OCCUR AND WHERE
CELLS TRACK ACROSS ANY BOUNDARY.

RED FLAG WINDS AND HUMIDITY WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
DRYLINE...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A COMANCHE TO GLEN ROSE AND
NOCONA LINE. WE WILL ALSO ADDED A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TO THOSE
COUNTIES JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. THE STRONG
WEST WINDS COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS WILL ALSO CARRY DUST INTO THE
REGION AND HAVE ADDED DUST TO ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...IT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE
RED RIVER...BUT SOME RURAL AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME UPPER 30S. NO
FREEZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS COOLER AIR.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN OVER AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE EXPANDED THE
SHOWERS NORTHWARD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDER. THE BEST DAY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY
WHEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
FORECASTING SOUNDINGS DO NOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AND QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  83  49  68  47  68 /  40  10   0   5  10
WACO, TX              82  50  72  47  69 /  40  20   0   5  10
PARIS, TX             80  47  66  43  65 /  60  50   0   5  10
DENTON, TX            84  45  67  44  66 /  30  10   0   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          81  46  67  44  67 /  40  20   0   5  10
DALLAS, TX            82  50  68  47  67 /  40  10   0   5  10
TERRELL, TX           81  50  68  46  66 /  50  20   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         81  52  70  47  68 /  50  30   0   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            82  51  72  49  69 /  30  20   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  43  69  45  67 /  20   5   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-100>102-
115>117-129>132-141.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-041230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
324 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE RISK AREA IS EAST OF A
LINE FROM ST JO TO MINERAL WELLS TO COMANCHE...AND INCLUDES THE
DFW METROPLEX AND THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM NOCONA...TO
GLEN ROSE...TO COMANCHE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED IN SOME AREAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

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