Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW STARTING TO DEVELOP NW OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES...IN A REGION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
FORCING FOR ASCENT. EXPECT THESE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT
AND RACE OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE DFW AREA THROUGH 15Z AT LEAST.
AT THE MOMENT THEY APPEAR TO BE FIRING IN A RELATIVELY NARROW
REGION OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...AND AM UNCERTAIN THEY'LL IMPACT
THE BULK OF THE METROPLEX SITES. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE ADDED
VICINITY THUNDER AT KAFW...AND MAY NEED TO DO LIKEWISE AT KFTW AND
KDFW IF TRENDS PERSIST. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
THE DFW AREA BY 16Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPANSIVE MVFR CLOUD LAYER SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO
VFR EVERYWHERE AFTER 16Z...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTING.  A STRONG DRYLINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR FROM DENTON TO WACO BY THE 19-22Z
TIMEFRAME...HASTENING A SHARP VEERING IN WIND DIRECTION TO THE
WEST AND CLEARING SKIES. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MAINLY EAST OF ALL TAF
SITES...AFTER 20Z TODAY. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY ACTUALLY PUSH
OUT OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR
A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT
OF OKLAHOMA TONIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS IN THE DFW AREA TO THE NW BY
AROUND 05Z.

66

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG/EAST OF A BONHAM
TO KILLEEN LINE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

AT 08 UTC...A DRYLINE WAS LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS GENERALLY FROM
WEST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA TO EAST OF LUBBOCK TO EAST OF MIDLAND WHILE
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
KS/OK BORDER. ALOFT...A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM
NORTH DAKOTA TO EASTERN ARIZONA.

THESE FEATURES WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING 3 TO 5 PM ALONG THE DRYLINE...GENERALLY
ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM BONHAM TO KILLEEN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE 2000+ J/KG CAPE...25 TO 35 KNOTS
OF BULK SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES....THUS LARGE HAIL
TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WHERE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OCCUR AND WHERE
CELLS TRACK ACROSS ANY BOUNDARY.

RED FLAG WINDS AND HUMIDITY WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
DRYLINE...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A COMANCHE TO GLEN ROSE AND
NOCONA LINE. WE WILL ALSO ADDED A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TO THOSE
COUNTIES JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. THE STRONG
WEST WINDS COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS WILL ALSO CARRY DUST INTO THE
REGION AND HAVE ADDED DUST TO ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...IT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE
RED RIVER...BUT SOME RURAL AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME UPPER 30S. NO
FREEZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS COOLER AIR.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN OVER AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE EXPANDED THE
SHOWERS NORTHWARD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDER. THE BEST DAY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY
WHEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
FORECASTING SOUNDINGS DO NOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AND QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  83  49  68  47  68 /  20  10   0   5  10
WACO, TX              81  50  72  47  69 /  30  10   0   5  10
PARIS, TX             80  47  66  43  65 /  60  60   0   5  10
DENTON, TX            84  45  67  44  66 /  30  10   0   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          81  46  67  44  67 /  40  20   0   5  10
DALLAS, TX            83  50  68  47  67 /  30  10   0   5  10
TERRELL, TX           81  50  68  46  66 /  60  30   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         82  52  70  47  68 /  50  20   0   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            82  51  72  49  69 /  30  10   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  43  69  45  67 /  30   5   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091-100>102-115>117-129>132-141.

&&

66/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
415 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-040915-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
415 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND ONE OR TWO TORNADOES MAY ALSO
OCCUR.

WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DROP THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 20 PERCENT IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY AFTERNOON.  A RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TODAY ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM NOCONA...TO GLEN ROSE...TO COMANCHE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
630 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

TXZ101-102-031200-
JACK TX-WISE TX-
630 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN JACK COUNTY
  WISE COUNTY

AT 629 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 10 MILES EAST THROUGH 13 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF JACKSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ALVORD...BRIDGEPORT...
CHICO...DECATUR AND BOONSVILLE.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3332 9738 3329 9739 3300 9800 3309 9809
      3344 9786 3344 9756
TIME...MOT...LOC 1129Z 231DEG 47KT 3309 9799

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
657 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

TXZ091-102-031230-
MONTAGUE TX-WISE TX-
657 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY
  WISE COUNTY

AT 657 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER BRIDGEPORT AND MUCH OF WISE
COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ALVORD...BRIDGEPORT...
CHICO...DECATUR...BOONSVILLE AND FORESTBURG.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3350 9748 3344 9749 3343 9744 3335 9738
      3325 9739 3304 9789 3323 9792 3371 9763
TIME...MOT...LOC 1157Z 235DEG 36KT 3323 9775