Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 6, 2014Hubbard County, Wadena County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 6, 2014, 1:29 AM CDT for Hubbard County, Wadena County, Minnesota. It was in force for 29 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 6, 2014, 1:29 AM CDT (06:29 UTC)
Expired: Jul 6, 2014, 1:58 AM CDT
In force: 29 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Hubbard County, MN, Wadena County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 198 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 6, 1:45 AM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	5 Sw Chamberlain, MN	MULTIPLE TREES BLOWN DOWN ON THE EAST SIDE OF WOLF LAKE

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 16 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 5, 10:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 223 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3255 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -8 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 989 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 131 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 176 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.0
Supercell composite: 12.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

368 
WUUS53 KFGF 060629
SVRFGF
MNC057-159-060715-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0038.140706T0629Z-140706T0715Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
129 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN HUBBARD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  NORTHERN WADENA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 215 AM CDT

* AT 126 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PARK
  RAPIDS...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
           ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NEVIS AROUND 135 AM CDT.
  HUNTERSVILLE AND AKELEY AROUND 140 AM CDT.
  BADOURA AND CHAMBERLAIN AROUND 145 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4682 9468 4680 9479 4671 9480 4679 9517
      4695 9516 4704 9513 4703 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 0629Z 294DEG 41KT 4690 9501

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

VG

1 follow-up statement

752 
WWUS53 KFGF 060658
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
158 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

MNC057-159-060708-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-140706T0715Z/
HUBBARD MN-WADENA MN-
158 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN WADENA AND SOUTHERN
HUBBARD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 4682 9468 4680 9479 4671 9480 4679 9517
      4695 9516 4704 9513 4703 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 0658Z 294DEG 41KT 4676 9457

$$

VG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 5, 11:55 PM CDT, 1 hour 34 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 11:55 PM CDT, 1 hour 34 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1155 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

IN COORDINATION WITH SPC...EXPANDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
TO THE EAST. STORMS ALREADY GETTING TO THE END OF THE BOX AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR ACROSS THE EASTERN FA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS EXPECTED...AND
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ISSUED AS A RESULT. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EASTWARD IF TREND CONTINUE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THE FIRST SEVERE THREAT IS NOW EAST OF THE FA. ATTENTION NOW TURNS
TO THE WEST WITH STORMS APPROACHING FROM CANADA AND FROM SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR/RAP MAY BE TOO WIDESPREAD WITH COVERAGE IN
THEIR FORECASTS...BUT BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
FILL IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SEVERE AREAS...AND INDICATE THAT THESE
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS (STRONG WIND GUSTS).
INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
INCREASING...ALONG WITH A 40-50 KNOT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...AND
WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE (DECENT SYNOPTIC FORCING). SO...THE HI-
RES MODELS MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A BUSY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS ONCE AGAIN PERFORMING MORE
FAVORABLY THAN RAP AS IT RELATES TO CURRENT CONVECTION...SO WILL
FOLLOW ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE.

SFC TROUGH REFUSES TO BUDGE WITH A DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE ND/MN/MB BORDER. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION FROM DEVILS LAKE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY RESULTING
IN A DRIER OVERALL AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH SFC BASED CAPE IS STILL
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NORTHWEST MN IN UNCAPPED
MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAREST THE SFC LOW. FORCING IS
STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT ONE SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
WINNIPEG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. A COUPLE OTHER SMALL
CELLS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE SFC WIND SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND IN KITTSON COUNTY. ISOLATED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
HIGH INSTABILITY. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. INCREASING SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHWEST MN. HRRR PLACES THIS LINE ALONG THE
VALLEY FLOOR BY 06 UTC. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS/DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER
RESULTING IN LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST MON/TUES WITH THE NEXT PRIMARY
WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW
DEEP NEXT 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVER ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. EITHER WAY FCST REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH EXITING SHORT WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE
FOR WED-EARLY THU. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT US LATE
THU-FRI. DIDNT STRAY FROM ALL BLEND TEMPS NOR POPS MUCH. OVERALL
TEMP REGIME AFTER THIS WEEKEND FAVORS A RETURN TO JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNRISE. THERE SHOULD BE A BROKEN LINE
OF STORMS THAT MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT SURE
HOW WIDESPREAD THESE STORMS WILL BE...BUT DID TEMPO FOR THE MOST
LIKELY PERIODS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 5, 5:17 AM CDT, 20 hours 12 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
517 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-061030-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
517 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY HAVE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF THE COMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 5, 9:08 PM CDT, 4 hours 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
908 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             3 WNW BLACKDUCK         47.74N 94.61W
07/05/2014  M1.00 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NORTH SHORE OF BLACKDUCK LAKE.

&&

VGODON

Local storm report, Jul 5, 11:19 PM CDT, 2 hours 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1119 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 PM     HAIL             VERGAS                  46.66N 95.80W
07/05/2014  E0.88 INCH       OTTER TAIL         MN   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JAM

Local storm report, Jul 5, 11:22 PM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1122 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     HAIL             VERGAS                  46.66N 95.80W
07/05/2014  E1.25 INCH       OTTER TAIL         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAM

Local storm report, Jul 6, 12:57 AM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1257 AM CDT SUN JUL 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     HAIL             MAIDA                   49.00N 98.36W
07/06/2014  E2.75 INCH       CAVALIER           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

1245 AM     HAIL             4 NE VANG               48.95N 98.06W
07/06/2014  E2.75 INCH       CAVALIER           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAM

Local storm report, Jul 6, 1:01 AM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
101 AM CDT SUN JUL 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     HAIL             WEST FARGO              46.87N 96.90W
07/06/2014  E0.88 INCH       CASS               ND   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JAM

Local storm report, Jul 6, 1:28 AM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
128 AM CDT SUN JUL 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     HAIL             WEST FARGO              46.87N 96.90W
07/06/2014  E1.00 INCH       CASS               ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIA VALLEY NEWS LIVE FACEBOOK.TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JAM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 5, 7:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami	43 min
Jul 5, 8:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami	32 min
Jul 5, 11:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Otter Tail	38 min
Jul 5, 11:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Norman, Polk	44 min
Jul 6, 12:07 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clay, Norman	53 min
Jul 6, 12:17 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen, Wadena	58 min
Jul 6, 12:22 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clay	53 min
Jul 6, 12:58 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson	62 min
Jul 6, 1:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clay	29 min
Jul 6, 1:17 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clay, Otter Tail, Wilkin	58 min
Jul 6, 1:46 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson, Marshall, Roseau	59 min
Jul 6, 2:32 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FGF	Becker, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen, Otter Tail, Wadena	7 hr
Jul 6, 2:36 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Otter Tail, Wadena	54 min
Jul 6, 3:37 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grant, Otter Tail, Wilkin	53 min
Jul 6, 4:16 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FGF	Grant, Otter Tail	6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2014 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.