Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 5, 2014Beltrami County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 5, 2014, 8:28 PM CDT for Beltrami County, Minnesota. It was in force for 32 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 5, 2014, 8:28 PM CDT (01:28 UTC)
Expired: Jul 5, 2014, 9:00 PM CDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

County Beltrami County, MN

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 200 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 5, 8:45 PM CDT	HAIL 1	3 Wnw Blackduck, MN	NORTH SHORE OF BLACKDUCK LAKE.
Jul 5, 8:48 PM CDT	HAIL 1	2 S Blackduck, MN

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 17 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3255 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -8 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 989 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 131 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 176 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.0
Supercell composite: 12.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

176 
WUUS53 KFGF 060128
SVRFGF
MNC007-060200-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0027.140706T0128Z-140706T0200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
828 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL BELTRAMI COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 823 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST
  OF BLACKDUCK...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BLACKDUCK AROUND 835 PM CDT.
  FUNKLEY AROUND 840 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4754 9442 4777 9476 4790 9459 4782 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 311DEG 19KT 4777 9457

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

VG

2 follow-up statements

053 
WWUS53 KFGF 060144
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
844 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNC007-060200-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-140706T0200Z/
BELTRAMI MN-
844 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
BELTRAMI COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 841 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BLACKDUCK...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST
CENTRAL BELTRAMI COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4772 9468 4786 9452 4782 9442 4754 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 311DEG 19KT 4772 9448

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

VG

026 
WWUS53 KFGF 060201
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
901 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNC007-060212-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-140706T0200Z/
BELTRAMI MN-
901 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL BELTRAMI COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4772 9468 4786 9452 4782 9442 4754 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 311DEG 19KT 4772 9448

$$

VG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 5, 6:49 PM CDT, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 6:49 PM CDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
649 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

SEE SWOMCD 1278 CONCERNING DETAILS REGARDING THE STORMS CURRENTLY
ACROSS NW MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD...AND OUT OF THE FA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EYES WILL
THEN TURN TO THE WEST...WHERE ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE
WESTERN MANITOBA...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. NOT SURE HOW THESE
TWO AREAS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME SORT OF MCS EVENT (WITH EACH EVENT
LIKELY REMAINING SEPARATE). ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF FORECASTED
POPS...AND WILL LOOK MORE INTO THE DETAILS OF THE OVERNIGHT EVENT
WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS ONCE AGAIN PERFORMING MORE
FAVORABLY THAN RAP AS IT RELATES TO CURRENT CONVECTION...SO WILL
FOLLOW ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE.

SFC TROUGH REFUSES TO BUDGE WITH A DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE ND/MN/MB BORDER. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION FROM DEVILS LAKE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY RESULTING
IN A DRIER OVERALL AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH SFC BASED CAPE IS STILL
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NORTHWEST MN IN UNCAPPED
MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAREST THE SFC LOW. FORCING IS
STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT ONE SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
WINNIPEG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. A COUPLE OTHER SMALL
CELLS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE SFC WIND SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND IN KITTSON COUNTY. ISOLATED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
HIGH INSTABILITY. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. INCREASING SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHWEST MN. HRRR PLACES THIS LINE ALONG THE
VALLEY FLOOR BY 06 UTC. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS/DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER
RESULTING IN LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST MON/TUES WITH THE NEXT PRIMARY
WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW
DEEP NEXT 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVER ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. EITHER WAY FCST REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH EXITING SHORT WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE
FOR WED-EARLY THU. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT US LATE
THU-FRI. DIDNT STRAY FROM ALL BLEND TEMPS NOR POPS MUCH. OVERALL
TEMP REGIME AFTER THIS WEEKEND FAVORS A RETURN TO JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE STORMS WILL BE...AND KEPT
VCTS UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY CAN BE OBTAINED. VFR CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 5, 5:17 AM CDT, 15 hours 11 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
517 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-061030-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
517 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY HAVE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF THE COMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 5, 4:58 PM CDT, 3 hours 30 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
458 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNZ004-005-052300-
KITTSON MN-ROSEAU MN-
458 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROSEAU AND
NORTHEASTERN KITTSON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 454 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM 24 MILES NORTHEAST OF HALLOCK...OR 37 MILES WEST OF
ROSEAU...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORM.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CARIBOU AROUND 505 PM CDT.
LEO AROUND 555 PM CDT.
GREENBUSH...PINECREEK AND HAUG AROUND 600 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4900 9585 4866 9612 4892 9669 4901 9661
      4901 9601 4900 9597 4901 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 300DEG 16KT 4899 9651

ROGERS

Local storm report, Jul 5, 5:53 PM CDT, 2 hours 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
553 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     TSTM WND GST     BADGER                  48.78N 96.02W
07/05/2014  E60 MPH          ROSEAU             MN   PUBLIC

            OBSERVER NOTED VERY STRONG WINDS LIFTING SHINGLES

&&

TGRAFENA

Local storm report, Jul 5, 6:09 PM CDT, 2 hours 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
609 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             13 ESE GREENBUSH        48.63N 95.92W
07/05/2014  E1.00 INCH       ROSEAU             MN   PUBLIC

            ALSO ABOUT 4NNE OF HOMOLKA.

&&

VGODON

Local storm report, Jul 5, 6:33 PM CDT, 1 hour 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             17 ESE GREENBUSH        48.60N 95.84W
07/05/2014  E1.00 INCH       ROSEAU             MN   PUBLIC

            4ENE OF HOMOLKA.

&&

VGODON

Local storm report, Jul 5, 7:19 PM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
719 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             1 NW FOURTOWN           48.29N 95.35W
07/05/2014  E1.75 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   PUBLIC

            THE HAIL STARTED SMALL AND ENDED BIG

&&

TGRAFENA

Local storm report, Jul 5, 7:30 PM CDT, 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
730 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             7 NW FOURTOWN           48.35N 95.44W
07/05/2014  E1.75 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   PUBLIC

            THE HAIL STARTED SMALL AND ENDED BIG

&&

TGRAFENA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 5, 7:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami	43 min
Jul 5, 11:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Otter Tail	38 min
Jul 5, 11:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Norman, Polk	44 min
Jul 6, 12:07 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clay, Norman	53 min
Jul 6, 12:17 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen, Wadena	58 min
Jul 6, 12:22 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clay	53 min
Jul 6, 12:58 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson	62 min
Jul 6, 1:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clay	29 min
Jul 6, 1:17 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clay, Otter Tail, Wilkin	58 min
Jul 6, 1:29 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Hubbard, Wadena	29 min
Jul 6, 1:46 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson, Marshall, Roseau	59 min
Jul 6, 2:32 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FGF	Becker, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen, Otter Tail, Wadena	7 hr
Jul 6, 2:36 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Otter Tail, Wadena	54 min
Jul 6, 3:37 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grant, Otter Tail, Wilkin	53 min
Jul 6, 4:16 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FGF	Grant, Otter Tail	6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2014 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.