Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 5, 2014Becker County, Otter Tail County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 5, 2014, 11:22 PM CDT for Becker County, Otter Tail County, Minnesota. It was in force for 38 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 5, 2014, 11:22 PM CDT (04:22 UTC)
Expired: Jul 6, 2014, 12:00 AM CDT
In force: 38 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

Counties Becker County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 174 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 5, 11:33 PM CDT	HAIL 1	11 E Detroit Lakes, MN	A FEW HAIL STONES THE SIZE OF A QUARTER.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 11 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 5, 10:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 243 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 94 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -324 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1426 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 154 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 269 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

671 
WUUS53 KFGF 060422
SVRFGF
MNC005-111-060500-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0029.140706T0422Z-140706T0500Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1122 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN BECKER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
  NORTHEASTERN OTTER TAIL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1120 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FRAZEE...  
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BIG MCDONALD LAKE AROUND 1130 PM CDT.
  DENT AROUND 1135 PM CDT.
  EVERGREEN AND PERHAM AROUND 1145 PM CDT.
  BUTLER AND HILLVIEW AROUND MIDNIGHT CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE RICHVILLE AND NEW YORK MILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4640 9534 4664 9597 4688 9578 4672 9516
      4663 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 295DEG 23KT 4676 9572

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

VG

2 follow-up statements

452 
WWUS53 KFGF 060444
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNC005-111-060500-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-140706T0500Z/
OTTER TAIL MN-BECKER MN-
1144 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
BECKER AND NORTHEASTERN OTTER TAIL COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1141 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST 
OF EVERGREEN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BUTLER AND HILLVIEW AROUND MIDNIGHT CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE NEW YORK MILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4640 9534 4653 9567 4685 9566 4672 9516
      4663 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 295DEG 23KT 4669 9552

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

VG

719 
WWUS53 KFGF 060458
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1158 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNC005-111-060508-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-140706T0500Z/
OTTER TAIL MN-BECKER MN-
1158 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BECKER AND
NORTHEASTERN OTTER TAIL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4640 9534 4653 9567 4685 9566 4672 9516
      4663 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 0458Z 295DEG 23KT 4665 9541

$$

VG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 5, 9:42 PM CDT, 1 hour 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 9:42 PM CDT, 1 hour 40 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THE FIRST SEVERE THREAT IS NOW EAST OF THE FA. ATTENTION NOW TURNS
TO THE WEST WITH STORMS APPROACHING FROM CANADA AND FROM SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR/RAP MAY BE TOO WIDESPREAD WITH COVERAGE IN
THEIR FORECASTS...BUT BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
FILL IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SEVERE AREAS...AND INDICATE THAT THESE
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS (STRONG WIND GUSTS).
INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
INCREASING...ALONG WITH A 40-50 KNOT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...AND
WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE (DECENT SYNOPTIC FORCING). SO...THE HI-
RES MODELS MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A BUSY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS ONCE AGAIN PERFORMING MORE
FAVORABLY THAN RAP AS IT RELATES TO CURRENT CONVECTION...SO WILL
FOLLOW ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE.

SFC TROUGH REFUSES TO BUDGE WITH A DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE ND/MN/MB BORDER. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION FROM DEVILS LAKE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY RESULTING
IN A DRIER OVERALL AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH SFC BASED CAPE IS STILL
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NORTHWEST MN IN UNCAPPED
MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAREST THE SFC LOW. FORCING IS
STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT ONE SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
WINNIPEG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. A COUPLE OTHER SMALL
CELLS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE SFC WIND SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND IN KITTSON COUNTY. ISOLATED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
HIGH INSTABILITY. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. INCREASING SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHWEST MN. HRRR PLACES THIS LINE ALONG THE
VALLEY FLOOR BY 06 UTC. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS/DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER
RESULTING IN LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST MON/TUES WITH THE NEXT PRIMARY
WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW
DEEP NEXT 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVER ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. EITHER WAY FCST REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH EXITING SHORT WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE
FOR WED-EARLY THU. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT US LATE
THU-FRI. DIDNT STRAY FROM ALL BLEND TEMPS NOR POPS MUCH. OVERALL
TEMP REGIME AFTER THIS WEEKEND FAVORS A RETURN TO JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE STORMS WILL BE...AND KEPT
VCTS UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY CAN BE OBTAINED. VFR CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 5, 5:17 AM CDT, 18 hours 5 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
517 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-061030-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
517 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY HAVE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF THE COMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 5, 7:30 PM CDT, 3 hours 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
730 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             7 NW FOURTOWN           48.35N 95.44W
07/05/2014  E1.75 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   PUBLIC

            THE HAIL STARTED SMALL AND ENDED BIG

&&

TGRAFENA

Local storm report, Jul 5, 8:46 PM CDT, 2 hours 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
846 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             12 W SHOOKS             47.87N 94.70W
07/05/2014  E1.00 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   PUBLIC

&&

TGRAFENA

Local storm report, Jul 5, 9:00 PM CDT, 2 hours 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
900 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     HAIL             2 S BLACKDUCK           47.70N 94.55W
07/05/2014  E1.00 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   PUBLIC

&&

TGRAFENA

Local storm report, Jul 5, 9:08 PM CDT, 2 hours 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
908 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             3 WNW BLACKDUCK         47.74N 94.61W
07/05/2014  M1.00 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NORTH SHORE OF BLACKDUCK LAKE.

&&

VGODON

Local storm report, Jul 5, 11:19 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1119 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 PM     HAIL             VERGAS                  46.66N 95.80W
07/05/2014  E0.88 INCH       OTTER TAIL         MN   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JAM

Local storm report, Jul 5, 11:22 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1122 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     HAIL             VERGAS                  46.66N 95.80W
07/05/2014  E1.25 INCH       OTTER TAIL         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 5, 7:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami	43 min
Jul 5, 8:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami	32 min
Jul 5, 11:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Norman, Polk	44 min
Jul 6, 12:07 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clay, Norman	53 min
Jul 6, 12:17 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen, Wadena	58 min
Jul 6, 12:22 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clay	53 min
Jul 6, 12:58 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson	62 min
Jul 6, 1:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clay	29 min
Jul 6, 1:17 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clay, Otter Tail, Wilkin	58 min
Jul 6, 1:29 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Hubbard, Wadena	29 min
Jul 6, 1:46 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson, Marshall, Roseau	59 min
Jul 6, 2:32 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FGF	Becker, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen, Otter Tail, Wadena	7 hr
Jul 6, 2:36 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Otter Tail, Wadena	54 min
Jul 6, 3:37 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grant, Otter Tail, Wilkin	53 min
Jul 6, 4:16 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FGF	Grant, Otter Tail	6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2014 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.