Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
349 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH
LIKELY POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION SUB-SEVERE. THERE WERE ENOUGH
BREAKS TO ALLOW FOR DECENT DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND THE RESULTING
ENHANCED INSTABILITY /STILL LOWER THAN TUESDAY/ WILL SUPPORT SOME
STRONG STORMS. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE OUT
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED...
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH TRAINING STORMS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL POSITIONED TO OUR NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AND AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BY LATE THURSDAY TROUGH FINALLY TRANSITIONS EASTWARD OVER THE
CAROLINAS...WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING MOVING INTO THE STATE. THIS
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE LIMITED...AND ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE POPS FOR SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE STILL ON TAP TO
BRING BETTER STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY...THEN LINGERING WEAK UPPER
LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2014/

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS AS A TRANSITION PHASE AS PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TO RESIDE OVER
THE CAROLINAS. WILL ACTUALLY SEE SOME SUBTLE RIDGING BEHIND THE
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD FOR THE INITIAL PART OF THE EXTENDED ON THU
NIGHT...KEEP ACTIVITY TO A RELATIVE MINIMUM WITH SCT POPS MOVING
OUT OF THE NE ZONES. THIS RIDGING LOOKS TO BE VERY TEMPORARY IN
NATURE HOWEVER AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PATTERN LOOKS MORE LIKE THAT OF FALL RATHER
THAN THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG...DYNAMICS AND PRESENCE OF SUBTLY 850 JET MAY
MAKE UP FOR THIS ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

TROUGH TRANSITIONS INTO CUTOFF LOW FOR SAT WITH GFS LIFTING IT
NORTH INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE EURO KEEPS IT WEST OF THE AREA
OVER ALABAMA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR LIMITED DIFFERENCES TO WX
IMPACTS AS LIFT IN DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS PRESENT IN BOTH MODELS.
BIGGER ISSUE IS GFS SHUNTING DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE EAST WHILE
ECMWF KEEPS IT IN PLACE AND PROVIDES FOR A SOGGY SCENARIO FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
WHICH YIELDS MID TO HIGH END SCT POPS THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

EVENTUALLY INTO NEXT WEEK...WE FINALLY SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD
IN OVER THE AREA WITH GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THIS FEATURE. SHOULD
SEE INCREASING TEMPS AND REDUCED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT BEST CHANCES OF THUNDER BETWEEN THROUGH
8PM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE SW THROUGH 10-12Z...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BY 15Z. SPEEDS SHOULD
BE 8-10KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...LESS THAN 6KT OVERNIGHT...AND
INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING. HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED IN OR NEAR
CONVECTION. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN DEGRADING TO IFR BY 10Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY AGAIN THURSDAY...WITH STORMS FIRING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  83  65  88 /  40  50  30  40
ATLANTA         65  82  68  85 /  30  40  30  60
BLAIRSVILLE     60  77  63  80 /  50  60  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    65  82  65  84 /  40  50  30  60
COLUMBUS        68  87  69  87 /  40  30  20  60
GAINESVILLE     65  79  66  84 /  50  60  30  50
MACON           68  87  67  89 /  40  40  30  60
ROME            65  83  66  85 /  40  40  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  65  83  65  85 /  40  40  20  60
VIDALIA         70  88  70  87 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE/BAKER
AVIATION...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1213 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121615-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1213 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

STRONG STORMS OVER MAINLY EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WITH GUSTY
WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
THREATS.

DISCUSSION...

A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
OF STORMS MAY BE HIGH...THE SEVERITY SHOULD BE REDUCED BY THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVERAGE IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA METRO PRIMARILY WHERE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE HAS BEEN OCCURRING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

DISCUSSION...

ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY THURSDAY...AN
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ARE FRIDAY
WITH ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
444 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

GAZ086-112115-
444 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN NORTHEAST EMANUEL COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CANOOCHEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTHEAST EMANUEL COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GEORGE L SMITH STATE PARK...TWIN CITY...
GARFIELD AND CANOOCHEE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 8214 3264 8231 3282 8218 3282 8216
      3281 8213 3266 8208 3264 8204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 216DEG 20KT 3266 8216

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
526 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

GAZ112-113-112215-
526 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN TOOMBS AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 524 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER UVALDA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS TOOMBS AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH
OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MCNATT FALLS...GRAYS LANDING...
CHARLOTTEVILLE...UVALDA...CEDAR CROSSING...ALSTON...ROCK SPRINGS...
TOOMBS CENTRAL...SOUTH THOMPSON...CENTER...HIGGSTON...VIDALIA...
SANTA CLAUS...LYONS AND PONDEROSA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3196 8244 3196 8248 3195 8248 3194 8250
      3197 8254 3199 8256 3201 8260 3207 8261
      3231 8239 3216 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 222DEG 16KT 3205 8249

16