Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
743 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 342 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION IN
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED...AND WITH
DEEP...MOIST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MODERATE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY...EXPECT SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA. AS OF 3
PM THIS CONVECTION WAS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND
CURRENT MOVEMENT TRENDS PUSH THIS LINE INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA
AROUND AT OR BEFORE 21Z/5PM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...AND SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA IN A 30 PERCENT RISK. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH NORTH GEORGIA IS THE MOST VULNERABLE
TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...STRONG STORMS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED...AND ESPECIALLY AS
THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE GREATER ATLANTA AREA DURING THE RUSH
HOUR PERIOD...MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION ON
THE ROADWAYS.

WITH PARENT LOW STILL SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...RESULTING FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT AND GOOD UPLIFT ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS
LARGELY NON-DIURNAL...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER
WILL HAVE THE AREA STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE THE LOW 80S WEDNESDAY.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF THE LONG TERM. THIS GIVES A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
SOLUTION AND HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HAVE ALSO MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

/ISSUED 408 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW
STILL POSITIONED TO THE WEST AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR
GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AREAWIDE. BECAUSE OF THIS...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECIDEDLY NON-DIURNAL IN NATURE AND AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IF NOT MORE DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES CAN BE EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT PERIOD
THROUGH WEEKS END. BY THE TIME WE GET TO WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL HAVE LARGELY ABATED ACROSS THE AREA AND GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE LIFT...CONDITIONS MAY ACTUALLY BE TOO
GOOD FOR CONVECTION MEANING THERE WILL BE NOTHING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ABOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...WE WILL JUST BE UNSTABLE. ADD IN
THE FACT THAT FULL SUN SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY GIVEN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUDS AND EXPECT WE WILL SEE HIGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT SEVERITY MAY BE LIMITED. WILL STILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN HWO GIVEN SOME OF THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES BUT AT THIS POINT WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD GENERIC
THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THU AND WILL FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHICH WOULD STILL YIELD LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE. BIG CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED IS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS GFS IS NOW KEEPING SECOND CUTOFF LOW WEST OF THE AREA
AS OPPOSED TO TRACKING STEADILY EASTWARD AS PREVIOUS RUNS HAS
DONE. STILL EXPECT HEALTHY COVERAGE OF STORMS BUT WILL WAIT FOR
LATEST ECMWF BEFORE DECIDING JUST HOW WET IT MIGHT BE FOR THE WEEKEND.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE ATL SITES IS MINIMAL OVERNIGHT AND
JUST EXPECTING SHRA THROUGH THE EVENING. ACROSS THE OTHER SITES
THOUGH...CHANCE FOR TS REMAINS FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE HOURS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. CIGS SHOULD DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE VSBYS DECREASE...BUT EXPECT IT TO REMAIN
VFR EXCEPT FOR AHN THAT IS FORECAST TO DIP DOWN INTO MVFR.
WESTERLY WINDS AT ATL SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SHRA/VCSH
TIMING...CIGS AND WINDS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  84  66  82 /  80  60  60  60
ATLANTA         69  80  66  80 /  70  70  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     64  75  61  78 /  80  70  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    68  80  65  80 /  50  70  50  50
COLUMBUS        71  84  67  86 /  70  70  40  50
GAINESVILLE     68  79  66  79 /  80  70  60  60
MACON           69  86  67  86 /  70  60  50  50
ROME            68  81  66  81 /  60  70  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  68  82  65  81 /  70  70  40  50
VIDALIA         73  89  70  88 /  30  60  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BUTTS...CLARKE...CRAWFORD...
GWINNETT...HALL...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...OCONEE...
PIKE...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TAYLOR...TOWNS...UNION...UPSON...WALTON...WEBSTER...
WHITE.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1202 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111615-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1202 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL EXIST NORTH OF A LINE
FROM CARROLLTON TO HIAWASSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. THE
THREAT OF A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ELSEWHERE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

DISCUSSION...

YET ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA TODAY BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. MUCH UNCERTAINTY CENTERS AROUND THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
COMPLEX OF STORMS BUT BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME PLACE IT ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS
WILL REFINE THIS TIMING THROUGHOUT TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE LOCALLY TO ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY THURSDAY...AN ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
823 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

GAZ105-107-110100-
823 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN PULASKI AND DOOLY
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 819 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES NORTH OF TIPPETTVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PULASKI AND DOOLY COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS
AROUND TIPPETTVILLE...MOCK SPRINGS...WALLACE...BROWNDALE...
HAWKINSVILLE AND HARTFORD. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY
INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3209 8362 3215 8370 3235 8358 3236 8356
      3228 8339 3212 8359 3212 8361
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 217DEG 25KT 3217 8362

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
830 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

GAZ106-108-110100-
830 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WILCOX AND CRISP COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 829 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TREMONT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS WILCOX AND CRISP COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS
AROUND SEVILLE...PITTS...EAST CRISP...HATLEY...WENONA...CORDELE...
TREMONT...PLEASANT VIEW AND POPE CITY. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD
STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED
UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3195 8386 3203 8376 3203 8361 3208 8361
      3207 8339 3183 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 218DEG 21KT 3200 8364

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
927 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

GAZ086-097-098-109>113-110200-
927 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 50 MPH WINDS IN WHEELER...
TREUTLEN...TOOMBS...TELFAIR...MONTGOMERY...LAURENS...DODGE AND
EMANUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

AT 924 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE
LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM WORKMORE TO MOUNT
VERNON TO JUST SOUTH OF NORMANTOWN...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS
WHEELER...TREUTLEN...TOOMBS...TELFAIR...MONTGOMERY...LAURENS...DODGE
AND EMANUEL COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH
OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE PONDEROSA...SANTA CLAUS...VIDALIA...LYONS...
TOWNS...MOUNT VERNON...HIGGSTON...AILEY...GLENWOOD...WORKMORE...
SCOTLAND...NORMANTOWN...LANDSBURG...ALAMO AND KIBBEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3183 8292 3215 8313 3240 8284 3253 8227
      3239 8221 3236 8224 3234 8223 3228 8222
      3219 8219 3208 8266
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 156DEG 27KT 3227 8227 3218 8271
          3192 8294