Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
743 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 342 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION IN
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED...AND WITH
DEEP...MOIST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MODERATE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY...EXPECT SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA. AS OF 3
PM THIS CONVECTION WAS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND
CURRENT MOVEMENT TRENDS PUSH THIS LINE INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA
AROUND AT OR BEFORE 21Z/5PM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...AND SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA IN A 30 PERCENT RISK. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH NORTH GEORGIA IS THE MOST VULNERABLE
TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...STRONG STORMS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED...AND ESPECIALLY AS
THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE GREATER ATLANTA AREA DURING THE RUSH
HOUR PERIOD...MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION ON
THE ROADWAYS.

WITH PARENT LOW STILL SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...RESULTING FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT AND GOOD UPLIFT ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS
LARGELY NON-DIURNAL...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER
WILL HAVE THE AREA STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE THE LOW 80S WEDNESDAY.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF THE LONG TERM. THIS GIVES A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
SOLUTION AND HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HAVE ALSO MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

/ISSUED 408 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW
STILL POSITIONED TO THE WEST AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR
GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AREAWIDE. BECAUSE OF THIS...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECIDEDLY NON-DIURNAL IN NATURE AND AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IF NOT MORE DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES CAN BE EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT PERIOD
THROUGH WEEKS END. BY THE TIME WE GET TO WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL HAVE LARGELY ABATED ACROSS THE AREA AND GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE LIFT...CONDITIONS MAY ACTUALLY BE TOO
GOOD FOR CONVECTION MEANING THERE WILL BE NOTHING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ABOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...WE WILL JUST BE UNSTABLE. ADD IN
THE FACT THAT FULL SUN SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY GIVEN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUDS AND EXPECT WE WILL SEE HIGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT SEVERITY MAY BE LIMITED. WILL STILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN HWO GIVEN SOME OF THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES BUT AT THIS POINT WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD GENERIC
THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THU AND WILL FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHICH WOULD STILL YIELD LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE. BIG CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED IS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS GFS IS NOW KEEPING SECOND CUTOFF LOW WEST OF THE AREA
AS OPPOSED TO TRACKING STEADILY EASTWARD AS PREVIOUS RUNS HAS
DONE. STILL EXPECT HEALTHY COVERAGE OF STORMS BUT WILL WAIT FOR
LATEST ECMWF BEFORE DECIDING JUST HOW WET IT MIGHT BE FOR THE WEEKEND.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE ATL SITES IS MINIMAL OVERNIGHT AND
JUST EXPECTING SHRA THROUGH THE EVENING. ACROSS THE OTHER SITES
THOUGH...CHANCE FOR TS REMAINS FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE HOURS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. CIGS SHOULD DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE VSBYS DECREASE...BUT EXPECT IT TO REMAIN
VFR EXCEPT FOR AHN THAT IS FORECAST TO DIP DOWN INTO MVFR.
WESTERLY WINDS AT ATL SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SHRA/VCSH
TIMING...CIGS AND WINDS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  84  66  82 /  80  60  60  60
ATLANTA         69  80  66  80 /  70  70  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     64  75  61  78 /  80  70  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    68  80  65  80 /  50  70  50  50
COLUMBUS        71  84  67  86 /  70  70  40  50
GAINESVILLE     68  79  66  79 /  80  70  60  60
MACON           69  86  67  86 /  70  60  50  50
ROME            68  81  66  81 /  60  70  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  68  82  65  81 /  70  70  40  50
VIDALIA         73  89  70  88 /  30  60  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BUTTS...CLARKE...CRAWFORD...
GWINNETT...HALL...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...OCONEE...
PIKE...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TAYLOR...TOWNS...UNION...UPSON...WALTON...WEBSTER...
WHITE.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1202 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111615-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1202 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL EXIST NORTH OF A LINE
FROM CARROLLTON TO HIAWASSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. THE
THREAT OF A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ELSEWHERE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

DISCUSSION...

YET ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA TODAY BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. MUCH UNCERTAINTY CENTERS AROUND THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
COMPLEX OF STORMS BUT BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME PLACE IT ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS
WILL REFINE THIS TIMING THROUGHOUT TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE LOCALLY TO ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY THURSDAY...AN ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
927 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

GAZ086-097-098-109>113-110200-
927 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 50 MPH WINDS IN WHEELER...
TREUTLEN...TOOMBS...TELFAIR...MONTGOMERY...LAURENS...DODGE AND
EMANUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

AT 924 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE
LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM WORKMORE TO MOUNT
VERNON TO JUST SOUTH OF NORMANTOWN...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS
WHEELER...TREUTLEN...TOOMBS...TELFAIR...MONTGOMERY...LAURENS...DODGE
AND EMANUEL COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH
OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE PONDEROSA...SANTA CLAUS...VIDALIA...LYONS...
TOWNS...MOUNT VERNON...HIGGSTON...AILEY...GLENWOOD...WORKMORE...
SCOTLAND...NORMANTOWN...LANDSBURG...ALAMO AND KIBBEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3183 8292 3215 8313 3240 8284 3253 8227
      3239 8221 3236 8224 3234 8223 3228 8222
      3219 8219 3208 8266
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 156DEG 27KT 3227 8227 3218 8271
          3192 8294

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
929 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FORSYTH                 33.03N  83.94W
06/10/2014                   MONROE             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            25-30 TREES DOWN... TREE FELL ON A CAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400691

JBANGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
937 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CEDAR CROSSING          32.02N  82.41W
06/10/2014                   TOOMBS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            MANY TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 56

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400692

JBANGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
958 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

GAZ097-110230-
958 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN LAURENS COUNTY
UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

AT 953 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTH OF CEDAR GROVE...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS LAURENS
COUNTY THROUGH 1030 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM
INCLUDE CEDAR GROVE...CADWELL...RENTZ AND DEXTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3239 8312 3252 8293 3225 8279 3219 8286
      3219 8290 3217 8295 3215 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 149DEG 28KT 3223 8288

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1022 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

GAZ085-097-110245-
1022 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS
IN LAURENS AND JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM EDT...

AT 1019 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 8 MILES EAST OF MINTER...MOVING NORTH AT
25 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
LAURENS AND JOHNSON COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ROCKLEDGE...MINTER...BREWTON...
SCOTT...LOVETT...SPANN...NEW HOME...DONOVAN AND WRIGHTSVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3251 8264 3251 8266 3250 8264 3246 8266
      3246 8269 3244 8270 3248 8287 3280 8278
      3277 8276 3279 8270 3278 8266 3281 8258
      3281 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 196DEG 23KT 3254 8274