Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
750 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH 2 SHORT WAVES ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT. MLCAPES RUNNING 1000-2000 EXCEPT SLIGHTLY LESS
FOR THE FAR ENE PORTION OF THE STATE. FIRST SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE SECOND EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MS/AL AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA VERY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...TENDING TO FAVOR CENTRAL GA MORE
SO. THE 4KM WRF REFLECTIVITY IS QUITE FAST WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND/AREA OF CONVECTION WHILE THE HRRR HAS BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT
AND SLOWER.

MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE LESS HELP FROM SHORT ENERGY ALOFT FOR
SATURDAY AND THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY TIED TO THE
INSTABILITY AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT
AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.

BDL

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS
INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. WITH SO MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND
IT WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT WHICH AREA OF THE CWA TO FAVOR WITH
HIGHER POPS. HOWEVER WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTH...HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN THAT AREA
FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

&&

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ON SUNDAY... MODELS AGREE ON A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
DRAGS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TO AROUND NORTH GA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT QUICKLY RETREATS NORTHWARD
MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS WHERE IT CUTS OFF BY TUESDAY... AND
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT... EXPECT A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH A FRONT MAY PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH GA... THE LACK OF A FRONTAL
FOCUS AND NOTED WEAK SHEAR VALUES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SUGGEST STORMS THEN SHOULD BE MORE OF THE TYPICAL GARDEN VARIETY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PULSE STORMS... AND THEREFORE... FOR THE MOST
PART... REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER... AS THE UPPER LOW
KICKS EASTWARD AND APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY... THE ADDED UPPER SUPPORT COULD ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN WARRANTS SHOWING
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED... WITH POSSIBLY THE GREATER CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OCCURRING LATER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE... A MOS BLEND
OF TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S... WHILE LOWS HOLD STEADY IN THE 60S AND 70S
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

39

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z
WITH SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DEVELOPING
06Z-14Z. ONLY TAF SITES WHERE I AM FORECASTING MVFR VISIBILITIES TO
DEVELOP ARE KAHN...KMCN AND KRYY...BASICALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. CHANCES OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE
KMCN/KCSG TAF SITES ARE TOO LOW TO CARRY A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
BETTER CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON MERITS A PROB30 AFTER 18Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY GENERALLY 8KTS OR LESS...BUT WILL BE VARIABLE
AND GUSTY NEAR CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  89  69  87 /  30  40  30  50
ATLANTA         70  88  72  86 /  40  40  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     59  84  64  80 /  30  40  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    66  88  69  87 /  40  40  30  50
COLUMBUS        72  90  73  90 /  60  40  20  40
GAINESVILLE     68  87  70  84 /  30  40  30  60
MACON           68  90  71  88 /  50  50  30  40
ROME            67  87  70  86 /  40  40  30  60
PEACHTREE CITY  67  89  69  87 /  50  40  30  40
VIDALIA         72  92  72  90 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...GORDON...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...MERIWETHER...
MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PIKE...POLK...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TROUP...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
309 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071915-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
309 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
TOWARD THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL PUSH INTO A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND BRING A THREAT OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE THE MOST
VULNERABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS... HOWEVER... ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
713 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

GAZ105>109-070000-
713 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WILCOX...PULASKI...CRISP...DODGE AND DOOLY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
EDT...

AT 711 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIPPETTVILLE TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF ACHORD.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WILCOX...PULASKI...CRISP...DODGE AND DOOLY COUNTIES THROUGH
800 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
RHINE...ANTIOCH CHURCH...BROWNING...ABBEVILLE...PINEVIEW...OCMULGEE
BANKS...FINLEYSON AND CEDAR CREEK. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 8374 3211 8297 3190 8320 3188 8318
      3184 8318 3185 8360 3180 8362 3180 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 275DEG 2KT 3212 8360 3206 8334
          3202 8296

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
753 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW MARSHALLVILLE      32.43N  83.98W
06/06/2014                   MACON              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            FLINT RIVER 911 CALL CENTER RELAYED A REPORT OF A
            COUPLE OF TREES DOWN IN THE MARSHALLVILLE AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400674

AGIBBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
755 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

GAZ104>106-108>110-070030-
755 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WILCOX...TELFAIR...SUMTER...CRISP...DODGE AND DOOLY COUNTIES UNTIL
830 PM EDT...

AT 747 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM MILAN TO COBB...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WILCOX...TELFAIR...SUMTER...CRISP...DODGE AND DOOLY COUNTIES
THROUGH 830 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS
INCLUDE MILAN...PLEASANT VIEW...POPE CITY...PINEVIEW...TREMONT...
RICHWOOD...TIPPETTVILLE...DRAYTON...VIENNA...LAMAR...COBB...DESOTO...
CEDAR CREEK...UNION AND FIVE POINTS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3180 8314 3184 8318 3185 8360 3180 8362
      3180 8380 3185 8395 3191 8394 3191 8409
      3214 8406 3208 8292 3183 8278 3178 8286
      3177 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 312DEG 17KT 3199 8307 3198 8361
          3195 8398