Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
257 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH 2 SHORT WAVES ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT. MLCAPES RUNNING 1000-2000 EXCEPT SLIGHTLY LESS
FOR THE FAR ENE PORTION OF THE STATE. FIRST SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE SECOND EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MS/AL AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA VERY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...TENDING TO FAVOR CENTRAL GA MORE
SO. THE 4KM WRF REFLECTIVITY IS QUITE FAST WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND/AREA OF CONVECTION WHILE THE HRRR HAS BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT
AND SLOWER.

MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE LESS HELP FROM SHORT ENERGY ALOFT FOR SATURDAY
AND THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY TIED TO THE INSTABILITY
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT
AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.

BDL

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS
INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. WITH SO MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND
IT WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT WHICH AREA OF THE CWA TO FAVOR WITH
HIGHER POPS. HOWEVER WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTH...HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN THAT AREA
FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

&&

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ON SUNDAY... MODELS AGREE ON A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
DRAGS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TO AROUND NORTH GA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT QUICKLY RETREATS NORTHWARD
MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS WHERE IT CUTS OFF BY TUESDAY... AND
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT... EXPECT A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH A FRONT MAY PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH GA... THE LACK OF A FRONTAL
FOCUS AND NOTED WEAK SHEAR VALUES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SUGGEST STORMS THEN SHOULD BE MORE OF THE TYPICAL GARDEN VARIETY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PULSE STORMS... AND THEREFORE... FOR THE MOST
PART... REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER... AS THE UPPER LOW
KICKS EASTWARD AND APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY... THE ADDED UPPER SUPPORT COULD ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN WARRANTS SHOWING
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED... WITH POSSIBLY THE GREATER CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OCCURRING LATER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE... A MOS BLEND
OF TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S... WHILE LOWS HOLD STEADY IN THE 60S AND 70S
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

39

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AND CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
EXCEPT FOR LOWER CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS
MOSTLY WNW 7-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE AND
STRONGER WINDS AROUND STORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ATL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  89  69  87 /  30  40  30  50
ATLANTA         70  88  72  86 /  40  40  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     59  84  64  80 /  30  40  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    66  88  69  87 /  40  40  30  50
COLUMBUS        72  90  73  90 /  60  40  20  40
GAINESVILLE     68  87  70  84 /  30  40  30  60
MACON           68  90  71  88 /  50  50  30  40
ROME            67  87  70  86 /  40  40  30  60
PEACHTREE CITY  67  89  69  87 /  50  40  30  40
VIDALIA         72  92  72  90 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...GORDON...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...MERIWETHER...
MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PIKE...POLK...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TROUP...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BDL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1255 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

GAZ001-002-011-061745-
1255 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN WALKER...
CHATTOOGA AND DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

AT 1253 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RISING FAWN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS WALKER...
CHATTOOGA AND DADE COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE RISING FAWN...CLOUDLAND...MENLO...TRION...
JAMES H. FLOYD STATE PARK...LYERLY...SUMMERVILLE...BERRYTON...
CHATTOOGAVILLE...HOLLAND AND TIDINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 8555 3468 8542 3443 8520 3440 8525
      3438 8533 3428 8539 3428 8544 3430 8548
      3475 8557 3478 8557
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 320DEG 28KT 3464 8560

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
101 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DUBLIN                  32.54N  82.90W
06/06/2014                   LAURENS            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWERLINES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS
            THE COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400663

RWILLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
104 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SMITHSONIA              32.81N  83.57W
06/06/2014                   BIBB               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400664

RWILLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
244 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

GAZ045>049-055-057>059-061915-
244 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN ROCKDALE...
NEWTON...MORGAN...BUTTS...DEKALB...HENRY...CLAYTON...WALTON AND
JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 242 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM HIDDEN VALLEY PARK TO
MANSFIELD. THIS LINE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS
ROCKDALE...NEWTON...MORGAN...BUTTS...DEKALB...HENRY...CLAYTON...WALTO
N AND JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH
OF THE STORM INCLUDE KLONDIKE...PANOLA MOUNTAIN STATE
PARK...SNAPFINGER...ARABIA MOUNTAIN...BELMONT...LITHONIA...HIDDEN
VALLEY PARK...EAGLES LANDING...STOCKBRIDGE...REX...RICHARDSON PARK...
MILSTEAD...CONYERS...KELLEYTOWN AND OAK HILL.

&&

LAT...LON 3359 8359 3326 8383 3355 8431 3373 8417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 303DEG 35KT 3358 8415

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
303 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

GAZ024-061930-
303 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN BANKS COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HOMER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS BANKS
COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM
INCLUDE PINEFIELD CROSSROADS...HOLLINGSWORTH...HOMER...FIVE POINTS
AND BANKS CROSSING.

&&

LAT...LON 3449 8354 3444 8338 3439 8337 3433 8339
      3426 8333 3425 8333 3422 8336 3432 8362
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 302DEG 9KT 3437 8349