Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
257 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH 2 SHORT WAVES ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT. MLCAPES RUNNING 1000-2000 EXCEPT SLIGHTLY LESS
FOR THE FAR ENE PORTION OF THE STATE. FIRST SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE SECOND EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MS/AL AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA VERY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...TENDING TO FAVOR CENTRAL GA MORE
SO. THE 4KM WRF REFLECTIVITY IS QUITE FAST WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND/AREA OF CONVECTION WHILE THE HRRR HAS BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT
AND SLOWER.

MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE LESS HELP FROM SHORT ENERGY ALOFT FOR SATURDAY
AND THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY TIED TO THE INSTABILITY
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT
AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.

BDL

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS
INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. WITH SO MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND
IT WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT WHICH AREA OF THE CWA TO FAVOR WITH
HIGHER POPS. HOWEVER WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTH...HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN THAT AREA
FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

&&

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ON SUNDAY... MODELS AGREE ON A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
DRAGS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TO AROUND NORTH GA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT QUICKLY RETREATS NORTHWARD
MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS WHERE IT CUTS OFF BY TUESDAY... AND
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT... EXPECT A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH A FRONT MAY PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH GA... THE LACK OF A FRONTAL
FOCUS AND NOTED WEAK SHEAR VALUES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SUGGEST STORMS THEN SHOULD BE MORE OF THE TYPICAL GARDEN VARIETY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PULSE STORMS... AND THEREFORE... FOR THE MOST
PART... REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER... AS THE UPPER LOW
KICKS EASTWARD AND APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY... THE ADDED UPPER SUPPORT COULD ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN WARRANTS SHOWING
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED... WITH POSSIBLY THE GREATER CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OCCURRING LATER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE... A MOS BLEND
OF TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S... WHILE LOWS HOLD STEADY IN THE 60S AND 70S
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

39

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AND CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
EXCEPT FOR LOWER CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS
MOSTLY WNW 7-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE AND
STRONGER WINDS AROUND STORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ATL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  89  69  87 /  30  40  30  50
ATLANTA         70  88  72  86 /  40  40  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     59  84  64  80 /  30  40  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    66  88  69  87 /  40  40  30  50
COLUMBUS        72  90  73  90 /  60  40  20  40
GAINESVILLE     68  87  70  84 /  30  40  30  60
MACON           68  90  71  88 /  50  50  30  40
ROME            67  87  70  86 /  40  40  30  60
PEACHTREE CITY  67  89  69  87 /  50  40  30  40
VIDALIA         72  92  72  90 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...GORDON...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...MERIWETHER...
MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PIKE...POLK...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TROUP...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
309 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071915-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
309 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
TOWARD THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL PUSH INTO A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND BRING A THREAT OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE THE MOST
VULNERABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS... HOWEVER... ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
602 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

GAZ068>070-062230-
602 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN PIKE...LAMAR AND UPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 600 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ZEBULON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS PIKE...
LAMAR AND UPSON COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE CONCORD...HILLTOP...WILLIAMSON...ZEBULON...
MEANSVILLE...LIBERTY HILL...MILNER...PIEDMONT...ALDORA...
BARNESVILLE...REDBONE...JOHNSTONVILLE AND GOGGINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3320 8441 3320 8437 3319 8437 3319 8423
      3318 8422 3318 8419 3313 8404 3296 8404
      3295 8404 3293 8408 3312 8451
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 293DEG 39KT 3311 8429

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
619 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

GAZ071-062245-
619 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN MONROE COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 614 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HIGH FALLS STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS MONROE
COUNTY THROUGH 645 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM
INCLUDE HIGH FALLS STATE PARK...BLOUNT...DAMES FERRY...PLANT
SCHERER...BERNER AND JULIETTE.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 8371 3308 8404 3320 8404 3320 8385
      3318 8382 3316 8383 3315 8381 3313 8382
      3303 8372 3298 8372
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 287DEG 11KT 3316 8400

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
619 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

GAZ066-062345-
619 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN TROUP COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM EDT...

AT 614 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER ABBOTTSFORD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN
THE AREA.  ANOTHER 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
745 PM.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
TROUP COUNTY...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND ABBOTTSFORD...WARES
CROSSROADS...LAGRANGE...SMITHS CROSSROAD...HARRISONVILLE...
LOUISE...HOGANSVILLE...BIG SPRINGS AND MOUNTVILLE.
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3316 8513 3319 8510 3319 8508 3317 8508
      3322 8495 3322 8487 3287 8486 3286 8510
      3287 8517 3313 8523
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 275DEG 20KT 3300 8516

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
621 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ADRIAN                  32.53N  82.59W
06/06/2014                   EMANUEL            GA   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN ADRIAN. REPORT FROM AMATUER
            RADIO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400671

AGIBBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
635 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

GAZ045-046-062300-
635 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN ROCKDALE AND DEKALB COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 632 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SNAPFINGER...NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTING
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS ROCKDALE
AND DEKALB COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THE STORM INCLUDE KLONDIKE...ARABIA MOUNTAIN...BELMONT...EAST LAKE...
REDAN...LITHONIA...PINE LAKE...SCOTTDALE...AVONDALE ESTATES...
CLARKSTON...SNAPFINGER...PANTHERSVILLE...CEDAR GROVE AND GRESHAM
PARK.

&&

LAT...LON 3365 8435 3373 8434 3382 8423 3372 8406
      3363 8412 3364 8416 3365 8418 3365 8422
      3363 8424 3365 8424
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 037DEG 7KT 3369 8421