Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

WHILE SOME STORM INITIATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GA
THIS AFTERNOON IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN APPROACHES THE CWA THIS EVENING.

ALL EYES ON AN IMPRESSIVE MCC APPROACHING WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
PROGGED TRACK TO IMPINGE UPON WESTERN BORDER CLOSE TO 23Z THIS
EVENING. CAN PRETTY MUCH THROW MODEL GUIDANCE OUT THE WINDOW AS
NOTHING HAS HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...EXCEPT FOR ORIENTATION OF VORT
MAXES IN THE 12Z GFS. WITH A PLETHORA OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE AND A
RESULTANT MESOLOW ALREADY ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM...IT HAS CREATED
ITS OWN ROBUST ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LIKELY HOLD AS AN MCV DRIVING
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IT IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ENCOUNTERING OTHER
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION. THINKING THIS CLUSTER WILL FAVOR A SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHWARD TURN INTO AN AXIS OF MUCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG. UPSTREAM
OFFICES HAVE REPORTED STRONG ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN BACK
SIDE OF THE COMPLEX WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ALSO NEAR 8-MB.
THUS...CANNOT RULE OUT WAKE LOW INFLUENCE PERHAPS MORE FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW THIS ALREADY
MATURE COMPLEX WILL HOLD UP AS IT MAY WEAKEN AS WELL BEFORE REACHING
GEORGIA. ALL CONSIDERED...HAVE DECIDED TO UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE 00-05Z PERIOD SPREADING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL GA FOR STORMS AND INCLUDED WORDING OF
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LARGE HAIL AS WELL THOUGH NOT AS BIG OF THREAT AS THE DAMAGING
WINDS. AFTER A RECENT COORDINATION CALL WITH SPC...A MODERATE RISK
LOOKS TO BE EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST GA TO INCLUDE AS FAR EAST AS
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL LARGELY DICTATE
PLACEMENT OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
FRIDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE PESKY NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED IN
OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY SO HAVE RAMPED HIGH END CHANCE POPS AGAIN BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THIS. THE GFS HAS COOLER 500-MB TEMPS THAN
TODAY SO THERE MAY BE A GREATER RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED. STILL LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL AFFECT THE CWA. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS LONG TERM...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR SATURDAY... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WHILE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COUPLED
WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED STORMS ON SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THESE
STORMS BECOMING STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
LOW PUSHING INTO THE MID- UPPER MS VALLEY... A LINGERING MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS ON SUNDAY... AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. A LACK
OF FRONTAL FOCUS AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST STORMS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN... SUMMER TIME PULSE
STORMS... AND REMAIN BELOW STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS. ALTHOUGH ECMWF
AND GFS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO AT LEAST NORTH
GA ON MONDAY... THESE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY... WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER
DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY ENHANCING STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS
THE FRONT MEANDERING MAINLY JUST NORTH OF THE STATE ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTH BY EARLY TUESDAY AS MONDAYS
DISTURBANCE CUTS OFF OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTS OFF
TO THE NE ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THESE
LATER PERIODS... WILL SHOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS AT MINIMUM... A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE... A MOS BLEND OF TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... WHILE LOWS HOLD
STEADY IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

39

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION APPROACHING THE ATLANTA METRO AREA WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING. METRO TAF SITES WILL SEE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z WITH THE KAHN TAF
SITE EXPECTED TO SEE MAIN IMPACTS 02-06Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE KCSG AND KMCN VICINITIES WILL HAVE THEIR MAIN
IMPACT 00-02Z. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST 6-10KT WITH STRONG GUSTS NEAR CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  89  67  88 /  40  40  30  30
ATLANTA         71  87  69  87 /  60  40  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     63  82  60  83 /  40  40  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    68  86  65  88 /  60  50  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  90  71  90 /  70  40  30  40
GAINESVILLE     69  86  67  85 /  40  40  30  40
MACON           70  91  69  91 /  60  40  30  40
ROME            68  86  65  89 /  60  50  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  88  66  89 /  70  40  30  30
VIDALIA         73  92  72  89 /  50  40  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...
FAYETTE...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...HARALSON...HEARD...
MERIWETHER...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...
SOUTH FULTON...TROUP...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER

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