Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1256 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME OF THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION WITH INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES/VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCTION POSSIBLY PROPAGATING
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ACRS THE REST OF THE CWA. DESPITE THESE AREAS MISSING
OUT ON THE HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT...RAINFALL INTENSITY MAY PRODUCE
AT LEAST SHORT LIVED FLASH FLOODING IN SOME OF THESE AREAS.
POTENTIALLY SERIOUS RENEWED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
IN AREAS ALREADY VERY HARD HIT...BENTON...LINN...JONES...WESTERN
JACKSON AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN IA. PORTIONS OF EASTERN HENRY IL
AND WESTERN BUREAU COUNTIES IN IL ALSO MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO POSSIBLE
HIGHER END FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF
1-3+ INCHES THROUGH MID EVENING.

LARGE BOWING STRUCTURE CURRENTLY OUT ACRS WEST CENTRAL IA...MAY
TRACK ALONG SFC BOUNDARY AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC GRADIENT
ALONG I80 INTO THE WESTERN CWA...POSSIBLY TRYING TO PROPAGATE MORE
EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA FEEDING INTO MORE
UNSTABLE AIR. IF THIS SYSTEM MAINTAINS...WIDESPREAD HIGHER END STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS OF 70-80+ MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 2 PM CDT OR SO.    ..12..

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

A MAJOR FLASH FLOOD EVENT HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCH RAINS THIS PAST EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA. THIS PARTICULARLY HAS BEEN HARD HITTING IN THE
CEDAR RAPIDS...THROUGH QUAD CITIES. THIS BROAD AREA IT GREATLY
IMPACTING THE CEDAR...MAQUOKETA...AND WAPSIPINICON RIVERS. THERE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO ALL OF THESE TODAY AS CURRENT AND
FUTURE RAINS ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE RIVER FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

BOTH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...AND NEW LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOOD EVENT ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. ONGOING FLOODING AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WILL FORCE ME TO BE BRIEF...BUT THE POTENTIAL NEEDS TO BE
DISCUSSED AS BEST WE CAN.

LIKE THIS PAST EVENING...AMPLE CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS
TODAY...AS THE VAST HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IS LARGELY UNTAPPED TO THE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS FORECAST OF DEWPOINTS OF MID 70S
TO EVEN 77 ARE POSSIBLE...AS THIS WAS NOTED ON OBS THIS PAST
EVENING. THAT SAID...A STRONG MID LEVEL VORT WILL SWEEP EAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY TODAY...REACHING IOWA BY LATE MORNING.
THIS IS ALREADY SPAWNING NEW STORMS IN NORTHWEST IOWA...AND IN
NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS SHOULD ASSIST IN HOLDING THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTH...INTO IOWA VS LIFTING NORTH AS THE NAM SUGGESTS.
THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS EVOLUTION TODAY.

SO...A SCATTERED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE EVEN THIS
MORNING IN THE WEST...WITH A BROAD SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. I EXPECT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL
IOWA...CONGEALING INTO A DAMAGING HP COMPLEX WITH BOWING SEGMENTS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS AFTER 2 PM. THIS
WILL CARRY A SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT...WITH ISOLATED HAIL
AND TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINS ARE VERY LIKELY...AND WE CANNOT TAKE IT.

A SIMILAR RAIN RATE OF 2 OR MORE INCHES PER HOUR SHOULD OCCUR
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DEEP CONVECTION...RESULTING IN LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. WHERE RAINS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
HEAVY...GENERALLY IN THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

VERY PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND DIURNALLY...A THUNDER
STORM. A GUIDANCE BLEND HAS BEEN USED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

TEMPORARY CALM BEFORE THE STORM THROUGH 19Z-20Z OR SO AT THE TAF
SITES...THEN STORM COMPLEXES FROM THE WEST TO BE A BIG IMPACT AT
MOST IF NOT ALL SITES FROM 20Z THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z THIS EVENING.
HIGH TURBULENT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. POSSIBLE SVR
STORMS WITH STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS TO 50-60 KTS/POSSIBLY HIGHER
NEAR 75 KTS IN MAX BOWING HEAD/...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
SEVERELY REDUCING VSBYS AT TIMES AS STRONGER CELLS PASS BY.
POTENTIAL FOR A BOWING SEGMENT WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS COMING
DOWN I80...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE CID AND EVENTUALLY THE MLI SITE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BRL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BOWING
SEGMENT FROM 4 PM TO 6 PM CDT OR SO. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS
OF 10-15 KTS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE VEERS WINDS TO THE WEST FROM
MID EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AFTER STORMS PASS... POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MVFR FOG AND CIGS FROM 03Z-07Z TONIGHT BEFORE WEST WINDS
INCREASE AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST INTO TUE
MORNING.    ..12..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

EXPECT SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST RIVER FORECASTS
TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LEVELS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER BY TOMORROW
NIGHT...AFTER THE LAST HEAVY RAINS FALL. UNTIL THEN...THE BROAD
PICTURE IS DIRE. EXCEPTIONAL RAINS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVE BEEN
WIDESPREAD FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS WILL ENTER
RIVERS THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN STAGES SHOOTING UPWARD.

ANOTHER VERY HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH MORE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED. THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINS...WILL BRING MORE FLOODING ON RIVER...WHICH IS INCLUDED IN
NEW FORECASTS. BUT...AS ALWAYS...THE QPF LIKELY WILL NOT FALL
PERFECTLY AS FORECAST...THUS...EXPECT CHANGES TO RIVER FORECAST IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THIS IS A HIGH IMPACT SITUATION!

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

UPDATE...12
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...12
HYDROLOGY...ERVIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
358 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-010900-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
358 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE COMBINATION OF LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER WILL MAKE TODAY AND THIS EVENING A VERY IMPORTANT
DAY TO BE A STORM SPOTTER. AFTER THE EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY RAINS
THIS PAST NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AND SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE HIGHEST IN SATURATED
AREAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 IN IOWA...AND NORTH OF
GALESBURG IN ILLINOIS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THIS VERY HEAVY RAIN.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN CENTRAL IOWA TODAY...AND MOVE
EAST...AS THEY FORM INTO ANOTHER LARGE BOWING LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES IS WIDESPREAD
TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE EAST.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING...STORM
DAMAGE...AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATORS WILL BE CONDUCTED
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       IOWA CITY               41.66N 91.54W
06/30/2014  M1.30 INCH       JOHNSON            IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24HR TOTAL AT THE WWTP.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
140 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     FLOOD            MAQUOKETA               42.07N 90.67W
06/30/2014                   JACKSON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PRAIRE CREEK IS OVER ITS BANKS IN TOWN NEAR 62. LOW LINE
            AREAS ARE AFFECTED.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
224 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     TSTM WND GST     W BELLE PLAINE          41.90N 92.28W
06/30/2014  E65 MPH          BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            60-65 MPH WIND. VERY HEAVY RAIN. POWER IS OUT.

&&

TAS

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