Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
316 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

A MAJOR FLASH FLOOD EVENT HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCH RAINS THIS PAST EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA. THIS PARTICULARLY HAS BEEN HARD HITTING IN THE
CEDAR RAPIDS...THROUGH QUAD CITIES. THIS BROAD AREA IT GREATLY
IMPACTING THE CEDAR...MAQUOKETA...AND WAPSIPINICON RIVERS. THERE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO ALL OF THESE TODAY AS CURRENT AND
FUTURE RAINS ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE RIVER FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

BOTH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...AND NEW LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOOD EVENT ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. ONGOING FLOODING AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WILL FORCE ME TO BE BRIEF...BUT THE POTENTIAL NEEDS TO BE
DISCUSSED AS BEST WE CAN.

LIKE THIS PAST EVENING...AMPLE CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS
TODAY...AS THE VAST HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IS LARGELY UNTAPPED TO THE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS FORECAST OF DEWPOINTS OF MID 70S
TO EVEN 77 ARE POSSIBLE...AS THIS WAS NOTED ON OBS THIS PAST
EVENING. THAT SAID...A STRONG MID LEVEL VORT WILL SWEEP EAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY TODAY...REACHING IOWA BY LATE MORNING.
THIS IS ALREADY SPAWNING NEW STORMS IN NORTHWEST IOWA...AND IN
NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS SHOULD ASSIST IN HOLDING THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTH...INTO IOWA VS LIFTING NORTH AS THE NAM SUGGESTS.
THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS EVOLUTION TODAY.

SO...A SCATTERED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE EVEN THIS
MORNING IN THE WEST...WITH A BROAD SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. I EXPECT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL
IOWA...CONGEALING INTO A DAMAGING HP COMPLEX WITH BOWING SEGMENTS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS AFTER 2 PM. THIS
WILL CARRY A SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT...WITH ISOLATED HAIL
AND TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINS ARE VERY LIKELY...AND WE CANNOT TAKE IT.

A SIMILAR RAIN RATE OF 2 OR MORE INCHES PER HOUR SHOULD OCCUR
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DEEP CONVECTION...RESULTING IN LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. WHERE RAINS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
HEAVY...GENERALLY IN THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

VERY PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND DIURNALLY...A THUNDER
STORM. A GUIDANCE BLEND HAS BEEN USED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
SITES...WITH VARIABLE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...MORE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH A WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH
FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BETWEEN
20Z/30 AND 02Z/01. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OUTSIDE OF STORMS.
WITH SIGNIFICANT STORMS LIKELY...ALL AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED
TO BE AWARE THE THREAT OF STORMS THROUGH 02Z/01.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

EXPECT SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST RIVER FORECASTS
TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LEVELS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER BY TOMORROW
NIGHT...AFTER THE LAST HEAVY RAINS FALL. UNTIL THEN...THE BROAD
PICTURE IS DIRE. EXCEPTIONAL RAINS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVE BEEN
WIDESPREAD FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS WILL ENTER
RIVERS THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN STAGES SHOOTING UPWARD.

ANOTHER VERY HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH MORE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED. THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINS...WILL BRING MORE FLOODING ON RIVER...WHICH IS INCLUDED IN
NEW FORECASTS. BUT...AS ALWAYS...THE QPF LIKELY WILL NOT FALL
PERFECTLY AS FORECAST...THUS...EXPECT CHANGES TO RIVER FORECAST IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THIS IS A HIGH IMPACT SITUATION!

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY
     IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...ERVIN
HYDROLOGY...ERVIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
351 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-301100-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
351 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
SPREAD EAST THROUGH LATE EVENING. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA LOCATED ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM VINTON...TO IOWA CITY AND KEOKUK. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH. THERE IS
A LESSER RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO BE
A THREAT DUE TO RECENT RAIN AND EXTREME RAINFALL RATES. SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL IOWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY FORM INTO A LARGE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO ALL OF ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI
MONDAY EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING
WIND OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL RISES ARE FORECAST ON MANY RIVERS DUE TO SEVERAL DAYS OF
RAIN EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY WORSEN ONGOING RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RP KINNEY/ERVIN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
303 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 AM     FLASH FLOOD      COLONA                  41.49N 90.35W
06/30/2014                   HENRY              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            INTERSECTIONS FLOODED.

&&

HAASE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
325 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE CEDAR RAPIDS      41.95N 91.66W
06/30/2014  M4.70 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BILLN