Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
613 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

A MAJOR FLASH FLOOD EVENT HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCH RAINS THIS PAST EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA. THIS PARTICULARLY HAS BEEN HARD HITTING IN THE
CEDAR RAPIDS...THROUGH QUAD CITIES. THIS BROAD AREA IT GREATLY
IMPACTING THE CEDAR...MAQUOKETA...AND WAPSIPINICON RIVERS. THERE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO ALL OF THESE TODAY AS CURRENT AND
FUTURE RAINS ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE RIVER FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

BOTH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...AND NEW LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOOD EVENT ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. ONGOING FLOODING AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WILL FORCE ME TO BE BRIEF...BUT THE POTENTIAL NEEDS TO BE
DISCUSSED AS BEST WE CAN.

LIKE THIS PAST EVENING...AMPLE CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS
TODAY...AS THE VAST HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IS LARGELY UNTAPPED TO THE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS FORECAST OF DEWPOINTS OF MID 70S
TO EVEN 77 ARE POSSIBLE...AS THIS WAS NOTED ON OBS THIS PAST
EVENING. THAT SAID...A STRONG MID LEVEL VORT WILL SWEEP EAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY TODAY...REACHING IOWA BY LATE MORNING.
THIS IS ALREADY SPAWNING NEW STORMS IN NORTHWEST IOWA...AND IN
NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS SHOULD ASSIST IN HOLDING THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTH...INTO IOWA VS LIFTING NORTH AS THE NAM SUGGESTS.
THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS EVOLUTION TODAY.

SO...A SCATTERED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE EVEN THIS
MORNING IN THE WEST...WITH A BROAD SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. I EXPECT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL
IOWA...CONGEALING INTO A DAMAGING HP COMPLEX WITH BOWING SEGMENTS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS AFTER 2 PM. THIS
WILL CARRY A SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT...WITH ISOLATED HAIL
AND TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINS ARE VERY LIKELY...AND WE CANNOT TAKE IT.

A SIMILAR RAIN RATE OF 2 OR MORE INCHES PER HOUR SHOULD OCCUR
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DEEP CONVECTION...RESULTING IN LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. WHERE RAINS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
HEAVY...GENERALLY IN THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

VERY PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND DIURNALLY...A THUNDER
STORM. A GUIDANCE BLEND HAS BEEN USED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

VERY STORMY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING TONIGHT...AS
ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS MOVE THROUGH
IOWA INTO ILLINOIS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED OVER THE AREA TO
START THE PERIOD...AND MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BEFORE INTENSIFYING AND SWEEPING EAST AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. AFTER 03Z...DRY AIR
AND AN END TO STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST. TODAYS STORMS
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DAMAGE AIRPORT BUILDINGS AND COULD AFFECT
UN-ANCHORED AIRCRAFT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

EXPECT SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST RIVER FORECASTS
TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LEVELS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER BY TOMORROW
NIGHT...AFTER THE LAST HEAVY RAINS FALL. UNTIL THEN...THE BROAD
PICTURE IS DIRE. EXCEPTIONAL RAINS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVE BEEN
WIDESPREAD FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS WILL ENTER
RIVERS THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN STAGES SHOOTING UPWARD.

ANOTHER VERY HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH MORE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED. THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINS...WILL BRING MORE FLOODING ON RIVER...WHICH IS INCLUDED IN
NEW FORECASTS. BUT...AS ALWAYS...THE QPF LIKELY WILL NOT FALL
PERFECTLY AS FORECAST...THUS...EXPECT CHANGES TO RIVER FORECAST IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THIS IS A HIGH IMPACT SITUATION!

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY
     IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...ERVIN
HYDROLOGY...ERVIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
358 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-010900-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
358 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE COMBINATION OF LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER WILL MAKE TODAY AND THIS EVENING A VERY IMPORTANT
DAY TO BE A STORM SPOTTER. AFTER THE EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY RAINS
THIS PAST NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AND SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE HIGHEST IN SATURATED
AREAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 IN IOWA...AND NORTH OF
GALESBURG IN ILLINOIS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THIS VERY HEAVY RAIN.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN CENTRAL IOWA TODAY...AND MOVE
EAST...AS THEY FORM INTO ANOTHER LARGE BOWING LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES IS WIDESPREAD
TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE EAST.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING...STORM
DAMAGE...AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATORS WILL BE CONDUCTED
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ERVIN

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