Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
158 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave ejecting east
out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains this
evening setting off thunderstorms across western and central Kansas
overnight. Ample low/mid level moisture remains locked in across
central and much of western Kansas ahead of an approaching cold
front from the northwest. As the upper level shortwave kicks out
into the high plains, an associated jet maxima is projected to
intensify as it shifts eastward across northeastern Colorado into
western Nebraska and northern portions of western Kansas. The
increasing dynamic support aloft, combined with plenty of low
level forcing as the cold front pushes through, will support
thunderstorm development across the area this evening into early
Monday morning. NAM/GFS model soundings show steep low/mid level
lapse rates early this evening with SBCAPE values still in excess
of 2000 J/KG and favorable enough vertical shear profiles to
support the potential for severe storms. The primary threat looks
to be large hail initially with the addition of damaging winds
going into this evening. Enough veering exists that an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms.
Additionally, the potential for periods of heavy rainfall exists
with the strongest storms with PW values well in excess of 1.5
inches based on the model soundings. Localized flooding could be
an issue, especially during the mid to late evening hours. Any
lingering storms Monday morning are expected to taper off west
to east by early to mid afternoon.

Temperatures will easily fall into the 60s(F) tonight across
southwest and much of central Kansas in wake of a cold front pushing
through western Kansas. The cooler air, not to mention the help of
widespread rainfall, will help drop temperatures. Highs are expected
only up into the 80s(F) Monday afternoon as a north to northeasterly
flow behind the departing front allows slightly cooler air to filter
down into western Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

Several subtle upper level disturbances embedded in a westerly
flow will cross the Central High Plains through mid week. As one
of these disturbances move out into the central plains Monday
night a moist upslope flow will be present north of a stationary
front located in Oklahoma. Convection developing over eastern
Colorado ahead of this next upper level disturbance late Monday
will move east/southeast along the low level moisture axis. At this
time the NAM and GFS differ on where this moisture axis will be but
at this time based on the 700mb baroclinic zone will continue to
favor the slightly further south NAM solution on track and timing
of the Monday night/early Tuesday convection.

By Tuesday night the surface boundary across Oklahoma will begin
to lift north as a warm front with moisture and warm air advection
improving north of this front. Each day this area of moisture and
lift will be a little further north than the previous night so
overnight precipitation chances will gradually shift further north
mid week.

Temperatures will warm in the 850mb to 700mb level mid week and
based on the mixing potential from the model soundings and
temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level at 00z Thursday and 00z
Friday the previous forecast still looks on track with
temperatures rebounding back into the 90s. Gusty
south/southeasterly winds can also be expected mid to late week as
an area of low pressure develops along the lee of the Rockies.
These gusty winds will begin to draw more humid air back to
western Kansas late week and early this weekend. This will give
rise to some widely scattered thunderstorms near the Colorado
border late week. Improving chances for thunderstorms across all
of western Kansas early this weekend as the next more significant
upper level trough approaches the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

Thunderstorms are likely across central and portions of southwest
Kansas late this afternoon and evening, potentially affecting all
three TAF sites with MVFR cigs/vsbys. IFR cigs/vsbys will be
possible with the strongest storms. Low level stratus is expected
to develop behind a cold front as it moves through southwest and
central Kansas late this evening through the overnight hours. MVFR
cigs will be possible in the vicinity of all TAF sites overnight
with periods of IFR cigs possible generally after 06Z. Winds will
remain light and variable through early this evening as a surface
trough across southwest Kansas moves very little during the period.
An approaching cold front will then push through western Kansas
mid to late evening turning winds north to northeasterly 15 to
30kt. These winds will subside below 20kt by daybreak Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  83  63  86 /  80  20  20  30
GCK  60  83  63  86 /  80  10  30  40
EHA  60  85  63  86 /  60  10  40  40
LBL  62  85  64  87 /  70  10  40  40
HYS  60  83  63  85 /  80  10  10  20
P28  65  86  67  87 /  80  30  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-230830-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
329 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014 /229 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HAIL UP TO GOLFBALLS AND
WIND OVER 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL OF STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. CHECK LATER FORECASTS AND
OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATED AND MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
541 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             6 SSE HOWELL            37.70N 100.14W
06/22/2014  E1.50 INCH       FORD               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
555 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             3 SE ENSIGN             37.62N 100.20W
06/22/2014  E1.00 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

            FOUR INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS WERE ALSO DOWNED.

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
607 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             3 ENE WINDTHORST        37.79N 99.58W
06/22/2014  E1.00 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
617 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     HAIL             3 NW BISON              38.55N 99.24W
06/22/2014  E1.00 INCH       RUSH               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAIL WAS NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE.

&&

GERARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
630 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

KSZ046-065-079-230015-
EDWARDS-PAWNEE-RUSH-
630 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL EDWARDS...PAWNEE AND
SOUTHERN RUSH COUNTIES...

AT 629 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ASH VALLEY...MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3794 9953 3848 9955 3848 9904 3842 9902
      3827 9902 3826 9900 3803 9895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 343DEG 27KT 3830 9920

18

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
641 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

KSZ061-062-074-075-230030-
GRANT-HAMILTON-KEARNY-STANTON-
541 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON...NORTHERN STANTON...
NORTHWESTERN GRANT AND WESTERN KEARNY COUNTIES...

AT 538 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COOLIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3825 10205 3827 10183 3826 10136 3758 10141
      3769 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 269DEG 13KT 3805 10204

18